All things STOCKS

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Once you hit $2 trillion, adding a 3rd trillion is NBD.

I hope not. I’m not letting go of my AAPL shares. I feel like I should be in MSFT and AMZN, too. GOOG and FB probably as well, but I think that they’re more vulnerable.

FB is hated by most users and depends on the targeted advertising. I just spent 10 minutes doing Google searches trying to find a ranking of dollars donated to charity by country and it would only feed me link after link of woke stats. I don’t care that Miramar gives a lot per capital or the results of some made up index of feel good answers like “did you help a stranger?”. I just wanted to know in real dollars which countries donate how many billions. Best I could find is that the USA donates nearly as much as a percentage of GDP as #2 and #3 combined. Also we’re north of a half trillion but Google’s manipulative algorithm wouldn’t return a simple list of dollars by country.

 

[Velo Vol]

I hope not. I’m not letting go of my AAPL shares. I feel like I should be in MSFT and AMZN, too. GOOG and FB probably as well, but I think that they’re more vulnerable.

MSFT now 7.5% cheaper than it was last week.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

MSFT now 7.5% cheaper than it was last week.

I know. HOOD is trying to draw me in for another bite. Must resist. Payment for order flow risk is crushing it.

Probably my last half dozen buys are in the ****ter. But they’re mostly post-COVID rally ideas. It’s just going to take more patience - which is my best friend and worst enemy.

 

[tbh]

JNJ has been good to me so far since I started this path of mine back in November...and I'm eyeballing picking up more NPK (something about a company that makes stuffed waffle makers as well as 40mm grenade munitions makes me grin, haha) given their solid dividend track record, from what I have read.

T has been looking decent too as of late...socked some into that to hold onto as a gamble to see how the spinoff of their media business stuff goes.

 

[bpalmer28]

Expecting more blood this week. Don’t panic sell...

 

[bpalmer28]

ARKK is killing me but I’ll never sell. I’m emotionally attached to Cathy

 

[Velo Vol]

ARKK is killing me but I’ll never sell.

Do you have very much? I bought some near the high. It's one thing to hold through one selloff, but holding during months of erosion are another thing.

 

[bpalmer28]

Do you have very much? I bought some near the high. It's one thing to hold through one selloff, but holding during months of erosion are another thing.

No. Only 3 shares. I try not to over-commit to speculative or innovation stocks. I just hate seeing the red numbers every time I look at my account! TSLA is likely to drop back down below 1000 and it’ll drag most of the market with it, including ARKK, but if ARKK goes to zero I’ll be ok.

My heavier positions are things like VTI and QQQ. I also really like LAND and KR. Recently sold the later 2 for a profit but if an opportunity to re-enter presents itself I won’t hesitate.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

ARKK is killing me but I’ll never sell. I’m emotionally attached to Cathy

It’s a proxy for crypto, EVs, AVs, and other new age investments. I might take a small bite of ARKK or maybe the financial version. LT hold since she’s not stuffing her funds with low p/e names.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

What are the Dogs of the Dow this year? Disney is probably one of them.

 

[Velo Vol]

No. Only 3 shares. I try not to over-commit to speculative or innovation stocks. I just hate seeing the red numbers every time I look at my account! TSLA is likely to drop back down below 1000 and it’ll drag most of the market with it, including ARKK, but if ARKK goes to zero I’ll be ok.

I was starting to warm up to the idea that maybe a "bottom" was forming around $90, but yesterday blew up that idea. Sigh.

 

[Firebirdparts]

What are the Dogs of the Dow this year? Disney is probably one of them.

Intel is one.

 

[Velo Vol]

What are the Dogs of the Dow this year? Disney is probably one of them.

If you had asked in November, Salesforce would have been a good answer.

 

[05_never_again]

ARKK has a pretty big air pocket down to about $50, it looks like...

 

[Carp]

What are the Dogs of the Dow this year? Disney is probably one of them.

What makes you think that? Dis is trading is roughly where it was pre-covid. Seems fairly undervalued to me, given the market performance over the same time frame.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

ARKK has a pretty big air pocket down to about $50, it looks like...

This might be an example of bottoms being made on time rather than price. When so many are sitting on losses, there is a lot of selling pressure on the way back up as the underwater buyers eagerly sell when they return to breakeven. That is one discipline that I’ve never been able to overcome. I made a couple of really big bets on AMZN and another company (GOOG?) about 8 years ago. They quickly tracked down and I sat on 10-20% losses (unrealized) for about a year. I was ready to cash out as soon as I was up 5-10%. Had I held on each would be worth 4, 5, maybe 6 times as much as when I originally bought the shares. Seems like I traded AMZN somewhere around $600.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

What makes you think that? Dis is trading is roughly where it was pre-covid. Seems fairly undervalued to me, given the market performance over the same time frame.

I’m going from memory/guessing. The Dow Dogs are measured 12/31 to 12/31. T might have been one this cycle. I just haven’t looked it up. The strategy is to buy the 5 worst performing stocks in the DJIA from the previous year and to hold them until 12/31 of the next (current) year. As mentioned, INTC is probably one of them as well.

 

[05_never_again]

This might be an example of bottoms being made on time rather than price. When so many are sitting on losses, there is a lot of selling pressure on the way back up as the underwater buyers eagerly sell when they return to breakeven. That is one discipline that I’ve never been able to overcome. I made a couple of really big bets on AMZN and another company (GOOG?) about 8 years ago. They quickly tracked down and I sat on 10-20% losses (unrealized) for about a year. I was ready to cash out as soon as I was up 5-10%. Had I held on each would be worth 4, 5, maybe 6 times as much as when I originally bought the shares. Seems like I traded AMZN somewhere around $600.

Yes, and the shakeout is complete when only the true believers remain holding the stock, which is likely to be people that bought before the 2020 ramp (at an average price in the 40s or so).

I imagine most of the selling that has taken the stock down to current levels is being done by momentum chasers that bought in the 120s - that's the most common price level where most of ARKK's shares have changed hands since inception.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Actually the theory is to buy the 10 highest yielding DJIA stocks every year.

Name/yield/yield rank a year ago:


Dow
4.94%
3
Verizon (NYSE: VZ)
4.93%
5
IBM
4.91%
2
Chevron (NYSE: CVX)
4.57%
1
Walgreens
3.66%
4
Merck
3.60%
8
Amgen
3.45%
9
3M
3.33%
6
Coca-Cola
2.84%
10

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Yes, and the shakeout is complete when only the true believers remain holding the stock, which is likely to be people that bought before the 2020 ramp (at an average price in the 40s or so).

I imagine most of the selling that has taken the stock down to current levels is being done by momentum chasers that bought in the 120s - that's the most common price level where most of ARKK's shares have changed hands since inception.

Well actually ARKK is a bit different since it is a fund rather than an individual stock. My mistake. The arbitrage traders keep the premium from running too far and the discount is mostly non-existent with her cult-like celebrity.

I held Service Corporation over 15 years (iirc) until I was back to break even. Of course I missed maybe another +50% by cashing out with the 10% ultra LT gain.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

The Dogs of the Dow Are Ending the Year With a Whimper

 

[Carp]

I’m going from memory/guessing. The Dow Dogs are measured 12/31 to 12/31. T might have been one this cycle. I just haven’t looked it up. The strategy is to buy the 5 worst performing stocks in the DJIA from the previous year and to hold them until 12/31 of the next (current) year. As mentioned, INTC is probably one of them as well.

Ah I understand. In that case, yes, DIS has fallen roughly 13% the last year. I also will be purchasing some.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Ah I understand. In that case, yes, DIS has fallen roughly 13% the last year. I also will be purchasing some.

There might be another strategy to buy the 5 worst from the previous year. The Dogs are actually the 10 highest yielding names. It’s a strategy that’s been around for about 30 years.

 

[Velo Vol]

Dogs of the Dow Explained: Dog Steps • Dogs of the Dow

Seems like there could be an ETF that would make this simple.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Dogs of the Dow Explained: Dog Steps • Dogs of the Dow

Seems like there could be an ETF that would make this simple.

There might be a solid strategy to out time the dogs. Their price probably runs up in the days leading up to 12/31. Then they probably sell off more than the others after the 1/2 surge of purchasing those names. Maybe buy them on 11/30 and sell them on 1/2. But I’m sure that or a similar approach is already in the algorithms of automatic trading platforms already. The computerized trades might even be shorting the other 20 while attempting to get on the 10 before the demand surge. I’m sure the performance of the 10 dogs has been examined relative to the other 20 in the days before and after 1/1.