All things STOCKS

05_never_again

Well-Known Member
Joined
Aug 28, 2006
Messages
19,296
Likes
16,499
The tax loss selling effect could be exaggerated this year because the markets are broadly up (meaning people have gains) but many individual names are down huge for the year. Great opportunity for people to avoid paying taxes on winners.

Maybe we get a late 2018-style downdraft the last couple weeks, perhaps egged on by Fed concerns, and then I bet January would be a great time to deploy some cash.
 
Joined
Dec 2, 2011
Messages
37,385
Likes
31,792
The tax loss selling effect could be exaggerated this year because the markets are broadly up (meaning people have gains) but many individual names are down huge for the year. Great opportunity for people to avoid paying taxes on winners.

Maybe we get a late 2018-style downdraft the last couple weeks, perhaps egged on by Fed concerns, and then I bet January would be a great time to deploy some cash.
The post-COVID names have had several false starts. I’m now guessing that exiting COVID is going to be a long-term process. Going to have to adjust living with it like the flu. I’m hanging on to Pfizer for the long haul. Maybe add to healthcare ETFs.

Watching CNBC earlier, FinTech and Media are still way down. DIS, SQ, PayPal, Discovery, AT&T, Comcast.
 

mrorange211

Well-Known Member
Joined
Dec 9, 2011
Messages
5,389
Likes
6,368
PayPal prints money and the younger demo doesn’t seem the least bit bothered by giving up 3% to them. They are expensive though and I don’t know if there’s that much of a barrier to competitors to justify where it has been valued.
The company is currently pouring a ton of money into expansion. I see them as the future trillon FinTech company that offers all services on one platform. When I do buy, I'm going pretty big for the LT.
 

Go aeiou

Well-Known Member
Joined
May 27, 2015
Messages
1,880
Likes
1,171
DKNG is at the bottom of the 74-27 52 week range. Not profitable in this COVID environment but they’re also spending a lot to build their brand and grow their footprint.
How do you see Covid effecting DK at this point?
I got lucky with DK, buying in the 30s and selling in 40s, 50,s, 60s. Just dumb luck following the crowd and taking profits. I can't come up with any kind of value, and don't trust those hawking the stock so I don't consider it any longer.
 
Joined
Dec 2, 2011
Messages
37,385
Likes
31,792
How do you see Covid effecting DK at this point?
I got lucky with DK, buying in the 30s and selling in 40s, 50,s, 60s. Just dumb luck following the crowd and taking profits. I can't come up with any kind of value, and don't trust those hawking the stock so I don't consider it any longer.
Comparing DKNG with CZR, PENN, and WYNN only PENN turns a profit. I think the other 3 all gave hotel and race facility assets. Only CZR has the bigger market cap. DKNG seems to have a lot of partners and gave their name out there.

I would think that with COVID DKNG is better positioned without the rooms and seats to fill. I’m guessing that being at the bottom of the 52-week range has a lot to do with IPO hype and it being driven up as a COVID name. I’m guessing DKNG is at a good price for a LT hold. Other new economy names were up strong this morning (LYFT, UBER).
 

tbh

Adequately Gruntled Member
Joined
Jun 12, 2017
Messages
1,510
Likes
2,165
Another good day...next target(s) is more MO and O to continue filling out my dividend schedule (with the aim being a relatively stable/consistent amount each month that will be reinvested). Depending on what I have left of the monthly cash I budget for this endeavor, I may throw something into T to take advantage of their dividends and see how things shake down with the Warner/Discovery deal.
 

walkenvol

Well-Known Member
Joined
Oct 5, 2012
Messages
9,579
Likes
12,877
Another good day...next target(s) is more MO and O to continue filling out my dividend schedule (with the aim being a relatively stable/consistent amount each month that will be reinvested). Depending on what I have left of the monthly cash I budget for this endeavor, I may throw something into T to take advantage of their dividends and see how things shake down with the Warner/Discovery deal.
Stay away from T…that’s a slow sinking ship. They’ve started cutting employee pay and benefits which is never a good sign
 
Likes: tbh
Joined
Dec 2, 2011
Messages
37,385
Likes
31,792
I’d hold on to AT&T (T). They have good assets in several key areas. Cutting staff will help maintain the dividend, although it certainly won’t guarantee it.

AT&T is running fiber in the neighborhood right now. It’s contractors, not employees, rolling the trucks. That’s pretty smart as they can easily adjust their headcount commensurate with broadband demand. In Neyland Stadium this year, Verizon’s signal was garbage. The person sitting next to me had AT&T and had a great connection during every minute of every game. Plus there’s stimulus to be had in Build Back Better.

They have private equity involved with DirecTV. Perhaps that business will eventually be returned to shareholders. Content stocks are inexpensive right now. Combining Discovery with Time-Warner and spinning it off to shareholders is a good idea. Discovery is a little smallish for big media. Combined with TW they are huge.

Cell/data isn’t going away. Building out their fiber footprint ought to complement that business. I own a bit of T, VZ, and TMUS as they are all viable.

Long term, T will just be like a boring utility type of business with a lot of cash flow. If they stay away from more stupid acquisitions they’ll be okay.
 
Likes: tbh

Go aeiou

Well-Known Member
Joined
May 27, 2015
Messages
1,880
Likes
1,171
I’d hold on to AT&T (T). They have good assets in several key areas. Cutting staff will help maintain the dividend, although it certainly won’t guarantee it.

AT&T is running fiber in the neighborhood right now. It’s contractors, not employees, rolling the trucks. That’s pretty smart as they can easily adjust their headcount commensurate with broadband demand. In Neyland Stadium this year, Verizon’s signal was garbage. The person sitting next to me had AT&T and had a great connection during every minute of every game. Plus there’s stimulus to be had in Build Back Better.

They have private equity involved with DirecTV. Perhaps that business will eventually be returned to shareholders. Content stocks are inexpensive right now. Combining Discovery with Time-Warner and spinning it off to shareholders is a good idea. Discovery is a little smallish for big media. Combined with TW they are huge.

Cell/data isn’t going away. Building out their fiber footprint ought to complement that business. I own a bit of T, VZ, and TMUS as they are all viable.

Long term, T will just be like a boring utility type of business with a lot of cash flow. If they stay away from more stupid acquisitions they’ll be okay.
I own it, and have off and on for about 30 years. Crummy management. Also own VZ.
 
Likes: walkenvol

walkenvol

Well-Known Member
Joined
Oct 5, 2012
Messages
9,579
Likes
12,877
T has managed to grow their stock in the last 5 years from over $42 down to under $24 all while getting those constant monthly checks for a business built years before. They’ve had crap management that thought they should buy non telco businesses to increase revenue growth. They’ve lost money on every company they bought and now sold and they will lose on Direct TV also. Employees are not treated well and they have a difficult time securing contractors because of uncompetitive pay. I prefer to invest in companies that grow instead of lose but you do you. I can think of at least 100 different companies I’d buy before T
 

walkenvol

Well-Known Member
Joined
Oct 5, 2012
Messages
9,579
Likes
12,877
I’d hold on to AT&T (T). They have good assets in several key areas. Cutting staff will help maintain the dividend, although it certainly won’t guarantee it.

AT&T is running fiber in the neighborhood right now. It’s contractors, not employees, rolling the trucks. That’s pretty smart as they can easily adjust their headcount commensurate with broadband demand. In Neyland Stadium this year, Verizon’s signal was garbage. The person sitting next to me had AT&T and had a great connection during every minute of every game. Plus there’s stimulus to be had in Build Back Better.

They have private equity involved with DirecTV. Perhaps that business will eventually be returned to shareholders. Content stocks are inexpensive right now. Combining Discovery with Time-Warner and spinning it off to shareholders is a good idea. Discovery is a little smallish for big media. Combined with TW they are huge.

Cell/data isn’t going away. Building out their fiber footprint ought to complement that business. I own a bit of T, VZ, and TMUS as they are all viable.

Long term, T will just be like a boring utility type of business with a lot of cash flow. If they stay away from more stupid acquisitions they’ll be okay.
T already announced they will be cutting their dividend
 
Joined
Dec 2, 2011
Messages
37,385
Likes
31,792
T already announced they will be cutting their dividend
They announced a payout ratio target of about 40% further down the road. They just announced the same dividend of $0.52 for the next one coming up in January 2022. Then the spin off fun begins. The share price of T will be lower after spinning off Time Warner with the Discovery combination. The new yield should still be north of 5%. Near 9% was pretty much assumed by everybody as unrealistic to maintain and I didn’t mean to imply that it would stay there after the reorganization.
 
Joined
Dec 2, 2011
Messages
37,385
Likes
31,792
T has managed to grow their stock in the last 5 years from over $42 down to under $24 all while getting those constant monthly checks for a business built years before. They’ve had crap management that thought they should buy non telco businesses to increase revenue growth. They’ve lost money on every company they bought and now sold and they will lose on Direct TV also. Employees are not treated well and they have a difficult time securing contractors because of uncompetitive pay. I prefer to invest in companies that grow instead of lose but you do you. I can think of at least 100 different companies I’d buy before T
Stankey has been CEO for less than a year and a half. Spinning off Time Warner is a good plan. Putting DirecTV under the control of PE is another good move. Wireless and fiber are good core businesses and cutting personnel costs is another good strategy.
 
Joined
Dec 2, 2011
Messages
37,385
Likes
31,792
Yes. I’ll “do you (me)”.

Baron’s has selected T as one of its top 10 stocks for 2022:


AT&T

There is a price for everything, including AT&T, which recently hit a 13-year low. The stock, now around $23, is off 18% in 2021 and amounts to a cheap play on the depressed telecom and media sectors.

The shares have been hit lately by renewed concerns about competitive conditions in the wireless market. The bull case is that AT&T will become a simpler company with less debt after it combines its WarnerMedia business with Discovery
(DISCA) in a deal due to close in mid-2022. A more focused management could deliver strong results after years of distraction from overpriced acquisitions.

And the wireless business could get more rational, considering that there are only three leading players: AT&T, Verizon Communications (VZ), and T-Mobile US (TMUS).

AT&T now yields 9%; that should fall to about 6% after a planned dividend reduction following the WarnerMedia deal. Here's the math: AT&T plans to pay out about 40% of $20 billion in projected 2023 free cash flow. That equates to a roughly $1.10 annual payout. That should translate into a 6% yield after reflecting the current value of Discovery stock
that will be received by AT&T.

The company may spin off Discovery to holders or exchange the Discovery stock for AT&T shares with holders in a split-off. Whatever the mechanism, AT&T should have one of the highest yields in the S&P 500.
 

walkenvol

Well-Known Member
Joined
Oct 5, 2012
Messages
9,579
Likes
12,877
Stankey has been CEO for less than a year and a half. Spinning off Time Warner is a good plan. Putting DirecTV under the control of PE is another good move. Wireless and fiber are good core businesses and cutting personnel costs is another good strategy.
Stankey is a T lifer, not an experienced successful CEO brought in to straighten things out. I usually appreciate most of your posts TGO, but I’ve been close to this organization for 40 years and have witnessed the mismanagement and subsequent downfall up close. WalkenVol rates it a sell. If you are interested in utility dividends buy Southern, Duke, or maybe Con Edison since New York City just passed a law preventing new buildings from installing natural gas. Between these types of anti NG biases and expansion of electric vehicles electric power should enjoy steady growth for the long term plus electricity distributors don’t have competition in their serving areas
 

VN Store




Top