I only started it last week. So for the last 2 weeks it's hitting 70%. I didn't back test it. I just went with a math analysis that I had done before because I wanted to simplify the way I made my picks for the weekly pick contest. There's no way to account for luck. For example, I don't think many people in the contest yesterday picked Oregon, Florida, or UCLA to lose. I think most players probably picked LSU over Auburn. I didn't but I'm thinking that will offset my not picking FSU to win which I think a lot of players probably did. In the past I've used this analysis in posts here to show that the scoring delta between offense and defense at the end of the season lines up pretty well with the final records of SEC teams. I just added a strength of schedule which updates with the scoring margins weekly to see how that might work in real time. So far it's doing better than my guessing.
As an aside - Kentucky:
Regarding the Kentucky-Florida game yesterday. In my view it was like Bowling Green upsetting Minnesota. Kentucky had no offense to speak of but it was enough because Florida did not come prepared to play. I thoroughly enjoyed the outcome but it says more about Dan Mullen and Florida than it does about Kentucky. Dan was defensive and defiant in his post game press conference. He was lost. It was like when you were a kid and f'up but didn't want to admit it. It was hilarious. In his 4 years as the HC at Florida Dan is 2-2 against Kentucky. You hate to see it. Fans down there are livid.
My guess since I haven't run the numbers yet is that LSU will bring Kentucky back down to Earth this coming Saturday. (I genuinely trust Heupel to do everything in his power to prevent that happening to us). I had LSU last week over MSU and I had Auburn this week over LSU. I had Kentucky over Missouri and South Carolina. I've not missed on any of those yet. After LSU, Kentucky has Georgia, then Mississippi State, then us. I think they may lose all 4. jmo.
I don't buy any Kentucky hype. Neither does ESPN. They only bumped them up 7 spots - to #40 in their rankings, even though they upset a presumed top 10 team. It wasn't real and thus is not sustainable. We beat the ever living cheese out of what was considered a fairly even matched opponent and did so in such a convincing fashion that a lot of people took notice. That wasn't a fluke and it was a must win game for Missouri if they were going bowling this year. In the words of TKjr, we stole their soul and you could see it in the demeanor of their coach in his post game presser. jmo.
That was the best I've seen us play since the second half of Florida 2016. We were in total command for the entire game. It was beautiful. I could get used to that. jmo.
Edit: These are my power rankings right now, not adjusted for strength of schedule. Hey, it is what it is and it's not based on perceptions. jmo.
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this morning
