Recruiting Forum Football Talk IV

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#23,501
#23,501
Chuckie said:
For any of you who don’t live in or near Georgia, you have no concept of what it is like dealing with their fans. The smuggest, cockiest, most childish group of folks who, despite having won nothing of significance during the entire lifetime of more than half of the US population, walk around with an unwarranted air of superiority that just makes you want to puke.
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Gators are the most obnoxious of all then the puppies .
 
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#23,502
#23,502
Weezer said:
No, but we're still Tennessee. I think KY will get a homefield whistle when we play them. Hopefully I'm wrong or it just doesn't matter.
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I have never noticed that when we have played them before….. it’s kentucky…. I’m sure the refs don’t care where they are at….. bad calls…. Sure bc it’s SEC refs.
 
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#23,503
#23,503
ChattaTNVol said:
ESPN has our efficiencies up over 70% now. They bumped us up 28 spots in their FPI rankings, from #54 to #26. They give us an ~80% chance of a win against South Carolina. They also now favor us over Kentucky, South Alabama, and Vanderbilt. Right now they have us at a 43% chance of beating Ole Miss. As it stands right now, my model favors us in all of those games including Ole Miss.

Some notable rankings now

#24 in run defense
#20 in total offense
#11 in scoring offense
#8 in rushing offense

My model pending weekly updates suggests we will win 8 games in the regular season. For yesterday I used the same model as the week before and after the fact compared its performance to some other metrics. Only 4 of the more talented teams won in the 10 game lineup Freak had for this past week. Only 4 of the higher ranked FPI teams won. Only 4 of the Vegas favored teams won. My model had 6 wins yesterday.

Yesterday was a huge step forward regardless of the opponent. We were a slight underdog and we demolished Missouri. It was brutal. We did more good things that we have done in a long time. Pat Ryan said I think 3 weeks ago that by the end of the year we'd have a pretty good football team. We're getting there. jmo.

I imagine that performance yesterday and hopefully more like it to come are going to be a godsend for our recruiting. You get me?

One last thing. When Tiyon Evans says we're going to have fun - I think we can take him at his word. jmo.
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How’s your model doing overall for the whole season?
 
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#23,506
#23,506
JCP201 said:
Dabo won, but crying about how his team was hurt. He doesn't know hurt until he has offensive lineman falling on the field because their leg won't work, and then having to go out there again because there is nobody else.

Just saying.
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Excuses. Saint Dabo lying through his teeth.
 
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#23,508
#23,508
GoBigOrangeVols said:
SEC Power Rankings

1. Georgia
2. Bama
3. Kentucky
4. Florida
5. Auburn
6. Arkansas
7. Ole Miss
8. LSU
9. Miss State
10. Tennessee
11. Texas A&M
12. Missouri
13. South Carolina
14. Vanderbilt

JMO
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KY should be at 7 IMO. They were outplayed by UF last night but UF beat themselves. If that game is played in a neutral site UF wins 9 out of 10 times.
 
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#23,509
#23,509
Smokeytom said:
How’s your model doing overall for the whole season?
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I only started it last week. So for the last 2 weeks it's hitting 70%. I didn't back test it. I just went with a math analysis that I had done before because I wanted to simplify the way I made my picks for the weekly pick contest. There's no way to account for luck. For example, I don't think many people in the contest yesterday picked Oregon, Florida, or UCLA to lose. I think most players probably picked LSU over Auburn. I didn't but I'm thinking that will offset my not picking FSU to win which I think a lot of players probably did. In the past I've used this analysis in posts here to show that the scoring delta between offense and defense at the end of the season lines up pretty well with the final records of SEC teams. I just added a strength of schedule which updates with the scoring margins weekly to see how that might work in real time. So far it's doing better than my guessing.

As an aside - Kentucky:

Regarding the Kentucky-Florida game yesterday. In my view it was like Bowling Green upsetting Minnesota. Kentucky had no offense to speak of but it was enough because Florida did not come prepared to play. I thoroughly enjoyed the outcome but it says more about Dan Mullen and Florida than it does about Kentucky. Dan was defensive and defiant in his post game press conference. He was lost. It was like when you were a kid and f'up but didn't want to admit it. It was hilarious. In his 4 years as the HC at Florida Dan is 2-2 against Kentucky. You hate to see it. Fans down there are livid.

My guess since I haven't run the numbers yet is that LSU will bring Kentucky back down to Earth this coming Saturday. (I genuinely trust Heupel to do everything in his power to prevent that happening to us). I had LSU last week over MSU and I had Auburn this week over LSU. I had Kentucky over Missouri and South Carolina. I've not missed on any of those yet. After LSU, Kentucky has Georgia, then Mississippi State, then us. I think they may lose all 4. jmo.

I don't buy any Kentucky hype. Neither does ESPN. They only bumped them up 7 spots - to #40 in their rankings, even though they upset a presumed top 10 team. It wasn't real and thus is not sustainable. We beat the ever living cheese out of what was considered a fairly even matched opponent and did so in such a convincing fashion that a lot of people took notice. That wasn't a fluke and it was a must win game for Missouri if they were going bowling this year. In the words of TKjr, we stole their soul and you could see it in the demeanor of their coach in his post game presser. jmo.

That was the best I've seen us play since the second half of Florida 2016. We were in total command for the entire game. It was beautiful. I could get used to that. jmo.

Edit: These are my power rankings right now, not adjusted for strength of schedule. Hey, it is what it is and it's not based on perceptions. jmo.

ScreenHunter 779.png
 
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#23,514
#23,514
ChattaTNVol said:
I only started it last week. So for the last 2 weeks it's hitting 70%. I didn't back test it. I just went with a math analysis that I had done before because I wanted to simplify the way I made my picks for the weekly pick contest. There's no way to account for luck. For example, I don't think many people in the contest yesterday picked Oregon, Florida, or UCLA to lose. I think most players probably picked LSU over Auburn. I didn't but I'm thinking that will offset my not picking FSU to win which I think a lot of players probably did. In the past I've used this analysis in posts here to show that the scoring delta between offense and defense at the end of the season lines up pretty well with the final records of SEC teams. I just added a strength of schedule which updates with the scoring margins weekly to see how that might work in real time. So far it's doing better than my guessing.

As an aside - Kentucky:

Regarding the Kentucky-Florida game yesterday. In my view it was like Bowling Green upsetting Minnesota. Kentucky had no offense to speak of but it was enough because Florida did not come prepared to play. I thoroughly enjoyed the outcome but it says more about Dan Mullen and Florida than it does about Kentucky. Dan was defensive and defiant in his post game press conference. He was lost. It was like when you were a kid and f'up but didn't want to admit it. It was hilarious. In his 4 years as the HC at Florida Dan is 2-2 against Kentucky. You hate to see it. Fans down there are livid.

My guess since I haven't run the numbers yet is that LSU will bring Kentucky back down to Earth this coming Saturday. (I genuinely trust Heupel to do everything in his power to prevent that happening to us). I had LSU last week over MSU and I had Auburn this week over LSU. I had Kentucky over Missouri and South Carolina. I've not missed on any of those yet. After LSU, Kentucky has Georgia, then Mississippi State, then us. I think they may lose all 4. jmo.

I don't buy any Kentucky hype. Neither does ESPN. They only bumped them up 7 spots - to #40 in their rankings, even though they upset a presumed top 10 team. It wasn't real and thus is not sustainable. We beat the ever living cheese out of what was considered a fairly even matched opponent and did so in such a convincing fashion that a lot of people took notice. That wasn't a fluke and it was a must win game for Missouri if they were going bowling this year. In the words of TKjr, we stole their soul and you could see it in the demeanor of their coach in his post game presser. jmo.

That was the best I've seen us play since the second half of Florida 2016. We were in total command for the entire game. It was beautiful. I could get used to that. jmo.
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I’m super interested in CFB models. Mainly for betting purposes as I have no clue how to make one, but I think they’re really cool. I’ll be keeping an eye on you in the Pick Em and if you’re kicking ass I’m gonna be bugging you about giving me access for next year so I can better place my bets 😛
 
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#23,521
#23,521
Chuckie said:
For any of you who don’t live in or near Georgia, you have no concept of what it is like dealing with their fans. The smuggest, cockiest, most childish group of folks who, despite having won nothing of significance during the entire lifetime of more than half of the US population, walk around with an unwarranted air of superiority that just makes you want to puke. I can NOT even fathom what they’re going to be like if they win it all. FML
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I wanta be that family member again looking down on my other family members that pull for OM, FL and MS ST.,..I want our turkey and christmas dinners ugly again….in good family way !
 
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#23,522
#23,522
ChattaTNVol said:
ESPN has our efficiencies up over 70% now. They bumped us up 28 spots in their FPI rankings, from #54 to #26. They give us an ~80% chance of a win against South Carolina. They also now favor us over Kentucky, South Alabama, and Vanderbilt. Right now they have us at a 43% chance of beating Ole Miss. As it stands right now, my model favors us in all of those games including Ole Miss.

Some notable rankings now

#24 in run defense
#20 in total offense
#11 in scoring offense
#8 in rushing offense

My model pending weekly updates suggests we will win 8 games in the regular season. For yesterday I used the same model as the week before and after the fact compared its performance to some other metrics. Only 4 of the more talented teams won in the 10 game lineup Freak had for this past week. Only 4 of the higher ranked FPI teams won. Only 4 of the Vegas favored teams won. My model had 6 wins yesterday.

Yesterday was a huge step forward regardless of the opponent. We were a slight underdog and we demolished Missouri. It was brutal. We did more good things that we have done in a long time. Pat Ryan said I think 3 weeks ago that by the end of the year we'd have a pretty good football team. We're getting there. jmo.

I imagine that performance yesterday and hopefully more like it to come are going to be a godsend for our recruiting. You get me?

One last thing. When Tiyon Evans says we're going to have fun - I think we can take him at his word. jmo.
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1633270495312.gif
ChattaTNVol got me all like 👆this morning
 
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