Purely anecdotal, but I think the “shy Trump voter” was a 2016 phenomenon. My family and many of our friends (a smattering of D, R, and I, but mostly moderates) here in PA and Ohio admittedly voted for Trump in ‘16. They were a combination of curious about trump and fed up with establishments. Now, a large number of them are disgusted by trump mainly on the basis of character or family values. People in the rust belt aren’t as married to a particular party as many other areas of the country are. They have family roots in industry, strong unions, Christianity, tolerance, and overall independence. They typically won’t carry water for a terrible person, and I suspect that will be the case in this election. Ohio is a tougher pull for Biden (more rural population to rely on for Trump), but I think PA, MI, and WI are going to be solid Biden states.