Recruiting Forum Football Talk II

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#150,377
#150,377
Devo182 said:
Reproducibility of research seems to be a near dang crisis. Lots of BS going on in research and academic research just to pump something out. So much data and statistical (especially p-value) manipulation going on.

Replication crisis - Wikipedia

But I fail too see how scrutiny of reproducibility is a post-modern push. The scientific process and dogma is very much a modernist philosophy. I would see scrutiny of its recent scandals as strengthening the environment, not as an attack meant to deconstruct it.
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As I understand it, the p-value of 0.05 (or 1 in 20 odds) was kind of set as a standard because RA Fisher put it in a famous text on stats in 1925. Ever since then, people have adopted it as the "line in the sand" for statistical significance because that's what their stats professors told them to do, without ever questioning why that was the appropriate place to draw the line.

It's pretty clear now that that line in the sand needs to be move way back, particularly in the social sciences where the patterns of human behavior are a lot fuzzier.

We've had people talking about Western Philosophy for over 2000 years. Probability and Statistics is still relatively new. Most of the major tests people (chi-square test, correlations, etc.) are only really a little over a hundred years old. It's all still very new in the grand scheme of things. We shouldn't be surprised there's been hiccups.

If you're interested in this kind of stuff, this book is great:

The Drunkard's Walk - Wikipedia
 
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#150,378
#150,378
Welp boys, quarantine got the best of me. When you combine no access to a gym with an influx of postmates, snacks and my girlfriend learning how to bake, it’s official. I’m fat again. I saw a picture of myself shirtless yesterday and If I didn’t have my contacts in I would have thought I was a hairless orangutan. I never had abs, but I also never looked like a retired offensive lineman before. You don’t notice that you’re growing tits until it’s too late. Anyways, im gonna go throw out my sweatpants and eat a salad. This ends today
 
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#150,380
#150,380
gainesvol82 said:
I'm pissed that I'm being forced to send my children back to elementary school on 8/10. Florida is one of the biggest hotspots in the world right now and they can't wait until after Labor Day?

It is stupid and politically driven to push people back to work. They don't care about our children's health and working parents are still screwed on work because there are no after school programs offered this year and daycares are still mostly closed....even if they were open they aren't prepared to have the kids socially distance and neither are the schools. They actually expect to enforce making young children wear masks all day. It won't work and all it will take is one infected child to cause an outbreak that they bring home to parents and disable the workforce.

The only other alternatives given are home learning that you have to commit to for months and requires adult supervision. I am blessed to have had my father-in-law move in with us and that is the only reason my wife and I can both work full time. He is not able to basically homeschool two children. I feel bad for other families who dont have that option.
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The daycare my kids go to on 210 has been open the whole time. Virtual learning disproportionately effects lower income families, strips peer and social learning, on top of the meal/nutrition issue. I'm picking option 1 for St John's because my wife and I's job strictly relies on the business hours time frame. Son is starting kindergarten
 
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#150,381
#150,381
VolBalla2014 said:
Welp boys, quarantine got the best of me. When you combine no access to a gym with an influx of postmates, snacks and my girlfriend learning how to bake, it’s official. I’m fat again. I saw a picture of myself shirtless yesterday and If I didn’t have my contacts in I would have thought I was a hairless orangutan. I never had abs, but I also never looked like a retired offensive lineman before. You don’t notice that you’re growing tits until it’s too late. Anyways, im gonna go throw out my sweatpants and eat a salad. This ends today
Click to expand...
That's embarrassing
 
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#150,383
#150,383
VolBalla2014 said:
Welp boys, quarantine got the best of me. When you combine no access to a gym with an influx of postmates, snacks and my girlfriend learning how to bake, it’s official. I’m fat again. I saw a picture of myself shirtless yesterday and If I didn’t have my contacts in I would have thought I was a hairless orangutan. I never had abs, but I also never looked like a retired offensive lineman before. You don’t notice that you’re growing tits until it’s too late. Anyways, im gonna go throw out my sweatpants and eat a salad. This ends today
Click to expand...

Pantless, grazing on fresh produce...yes, orangutan.
 
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#150,386
#150,386
eVOLve said:
More direct and to the point quote..
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I've sort of been increasingly skeptical that we would have a football season this year but I actually took this tweet as a positive indicator. I could be wrong.

I know this is counter intuitive but this leads me to suspect that it's all but a given that we will play. For example the fear associated with a stock market collapse is greatest at the "bottom" so masses of people dump their shares in what is called a capitulation event but from that point the market starts its rebound. It's the same at a market top; everyone is euphoric, things are going great, but "smart money" is selling and shorting into all the positive sentiment because their knowledge, experience, and understanding of the economy and market informs them that a reversal is imminent.

In this case I think it's a case of managing expectations, under-promise and over-deliver. There will be less complaining about what finally emerges as a season than having no season at all. I'm estimating the decision to play or not to play, just for the SEC alone, has an overall direct and indirect economic impact to the conference, the universities, the communities, and the partners of SEC football, perhaps somewhere well in excess of $12 billion. That's a lot. That's well above the threshold for declaring a natural disaster.

I always used two technical indicators to help me to identify a likely bottoming in the market. The first was a moving average of the advance/decline line. It’s the net difference between the number of stocks going up and the number of stocks going down. At an extremely negative value it will often foretell an imminent reversal. It actually worked better in a negative environment than in a positive environment and that's because there's a finite distance to zero but a bull market can go on almost indefinitely.

The second indicator I used was the number of new 52-week highs and lows. A large spike in the number of stocks hitting new 52-week lows was a good identifier for the capitulation event. This would often be the reversal day and you might have a few days up to maybe a week to build your positions in the market before it really broke out to the upside. At this point everyone is trying to get on board and any remaining shorts are buying to cover so the reversal after a few days of accumulation, at least initially, is very explosive.

I expect liftoff before the end of the month when we will be treated to, among other things, the agreed upon schedule for fall camp. jmo.

Disney, parent company of ESPN, opened Magic Kingdom in Orlando, Fl today, a state considered to be a current virus hot spot. We're playing football this fall. jmo.

ScreenHunter 482.png
 
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#150,387
#150,387
VolBalla2014 said:
Welp boys, quarantine got the best of me. When you combine no access to a gym with an influx of postmates, snacks and my girlfriend learning how to bake, it’s official. I’m fat again. I saw a picture of myself shirtless yesterday and If I didn’t have my contacts in I would have thought I was a hairless orangutan. I never had abs, but I also never looked like a retired offensive lineman before. You don’t notice that you’re growing tits until it’s too late. Anyways, im gonna go throw out my sweatpants and eat a salad. This ends today
Click to expand...

Im not fitting you again for your Manzier. Once was traumatizing enough

E579CE2B-CC9D-4D49-8F97-A5D6A35687AD.gif
 
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#150,388
#150,388
SSVol said:
Child abuse and domestic violence has skyrocketed during the pandemic. School is in many cases the only place some kids are getting solid nutrition. The arguments for and against aren't simply political.
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I don't doubt that there have been increased reports but if you are willing to abuse someone I have my doubts that it's a direct result of the pandemic.

It is very likely that it was either already happening or would have happened anyway given time. I do agree with the nutritional angle but most schools have still delivered meals and EBT benefits have also been increased to bridge that gap.
 
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#150,389
#150,389
BruisedOrange said:
I am replying with this link NOT to promote any political position, but because you are obviously a loving, caring parent who just wants your child's health to be secure.

https://www.kusi.com/dr-scott-atlas...and-asks-arent-schools-an-essential-business/

Unless your child has one of the critical but identified pre-existing conditions, the current science should reassure you.
Click to expand...

I appreciate this post. But I'm also worried about people in the home that children are bringing the virus home to.

F it, though. We are all probably going to come into contact with the virus or already have.
 
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#150,390
#150,390
RiotVol said:
As I understand it, the p-value of 0.05 (or 1 in 20 odds) was kind of set as a standard because RA Fisher put it in a famous text on stats in 1925. Ever since then, people have adopted it as the "line in the sand" for statistical significance because that's what their stats professors told them to do, without ever questioning why that was the appropriate place to draw the line.

It's pretty clear now that that line in the sand needs to be move way back, particularly in the social sciences where the patterns of human behavior are a lot fuzzier.

We've had people talking about Western Philosophy for over 2000 years. Probability and Statistics is still relatively new. Most of the major tests people (chi-square test, correlations, etc.) are only really a little over a hundred years old. It's all still very new in the grand scheme of things. We shouldn't be surprised there's been hiccups.

If you're interested in this kind of stuff, this book is great:

The Drunkard's Walk - Wikipedia
Click to expand...
Totally agree, re: social sciences. I have typically worked with big data, where it is not usually an issue. I can only imagine psych experiments with 20, 30, even 100 subjects and purporting to have "statistical significance"...

Btw, that looks like a good book. I've studied Random Walk in investing and financial markets, but it certainly seems applicable to far more.
 
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#150,391
#150,391
VolBalla2014 said:
Welp boys, quarantine got the best of me. When you combine no access to a gym with an influx of postmates, snacks and my girlfriend learning how to bake, it’s official. I’m fat again. I saw a picture of myself shirtless yesterday and If I didn’t have my contacts in I would have thought I was a hairless orangutan. I never had abs, but I also never looked like a retired offensive lineman before. You don’t notice that you’re growing tits until it’s too late. Anyways, im gonna go throw out my sweatpants and eat a salad. This ends today
Click to expand...
Gimme a call.
 
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#150,392
#150,392
utvols88 said:
The daycare my kids go to on 210 has been open the whole time. Virtual learning disproportionately effects lower income families, strips peer and social learning, on top of the meal/nutrition issue. I'm picking option 1 for St John's because my wife and I's job strictly relies on the business hours time frame. Son is starting kindergarten
Click to expand...

Hope your son is safe and has a great school experience. I also picked option 1 but I'm not happy about how early they are starting and that parents were not given a longer period to weigh their options.

I'm neither Democrat or Republican but I feel like Desantis pushed for early opening to push the Trump agenda for a quick economic recovery.

I don't want to get too political but I feel that the American people's lives and health are being devalued and that the economy is being prioritized over health.

I realize that we need a strong economy and have to recover but I just hope that health and safety are being prioritized along with financial solvency for the country and its citizens. There are no easy answers to this dilemma but an extra month for Florida to recover would be preferred by me.

I realize that extra month might negatively impact others though.
 
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#150,393
#150,393
gainesvol82 said:
Hope your son is safe and has a great school experience. I also picked option 1 but I'm not happy about how early they are starting and that parents were not given a longer period to weigh their options.

I'm neither Democrat or Republican but I feel like Desantis pushed for early opening to push the Trump agenda for a quick economic recovery.

I don't want to get too political but I feel that the American people's lives and health are being devalued and that the economy is being prioritized over health.

I realize that we need a strong economy and have to recover but I just hope that health and safety are being prioritized along with financial solvency for the country and its citizens. There are no easy answers to this dilemma but an extra month for Florida to recover would be preferred by me.

I realize that extra month might negatively impact others though.
Click to expand...
Policy making is tough when tens of millions of people lose their jobs. The numbers were low and steady when Florida opened and remained low and steady for a month after. Personally I think the riots being exempt from chastising led to folks become more lax. Media coverage was a massive disservice to the American people. Some health officials echoed the same nonsensical exemption. Then Fauci admitted he intentionally misled regarding masks. I dont blame DeSantis.

Studies on child transmission and spread supports a return. Itll be ok GV. 👍
 
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#150,394
#150,394
Devo182 said:
Totally agree, re: social sciences. I have typically worked with big data, where it is not usually an issue. I can only imagine psych experiments with 20, 30, even 100 subjects and purporting to have "statistical significance"...

Btw, that looks like a good book. I've studied Random Walk in investing and financial markets, but it certainly seems applicable to far more.
Click to expand...

It's a great book. I assign it in my quantitative methods class so all of my students have some historical context.
 
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#150,398
#150,398
utvols88 said:
Policy making is tough when tens of millions of people lose their jobs. The numbers were low and steady when Florida opened and remained low and steady for a month after. Personally I think the riots being exempt from chastising led to folks become more lax. Media coverage was a massive disservice to the American people. Some health officials echoed the same nonsensical exemption. Then Fauci admitted he intentionally misled regarding masks. I dont blame DeSantis.

Studies on child transmission and spread supports a return. Itll be ok GV. 👍
Click to expand...

Thanks for your positive outlook 88. I agree with you that rioting and protesting probably upped the numbers along with increased testing.

I had to miss work this week due to my wife having a close coworker with Corona symptoms and had to pay $150 for 24 hour testing to show being negative.

I'm taking the antibodies test Monday so I can know if I'm immune so I'm not put in that situation again.
 
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#150,399
#150,399
nicksjuzunk said:
I’m pretty dang ripped right now... testing in the low 8% body fat... Pushing to be the leanest dude anyone will ever see outside of a competition though. Truthfully I’m not sure how much more that will be since this is about as lean as I’ve ever been, give or take a bit
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I figured as much. You legitimately offering assistance?
 
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