Latest Coronavirus - Yikes

#34,101
#34,101
I get the sense the world is going to be playing wack-a-mole with this thing until there's a vaccine.

 
#34,105
#34,105
BisonVol said:
You could argue that they are still on the first wave or that their first wave is just getting started. There's no argument to call this a second wave. Poor reporting by the person who tweeted this.
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Kind of what I thought, plus they have tons of migrant workers there
 
#34,106
#34,106
lawgator1 said:
I watched the first 15 seconds of the first and came to the quick realization that he is mentally disabled.

He compares a mandatory vaccine against the CV with being forced to take cholesterol meds. He is too dumb to realize the difference (one is contagious, one is not), and so by definition he is too stupid to be allowed to post videos, much less have other idiots share them like you did.
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A lawyer calling a MD dumb.

I've seen it all now.
 
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#34,107
#34,107
BowlBrother85 said:
Well, believe it or not... if given the choice, I really would prefer to go ahead and have President Trump for 4 more years than be facing the reality that I won't be able to pay my bills next month - which includes child support for two kids. Even if I am called back, my income is heavily influenced by commission... in other words, I won't be making squat for a while.
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If one desired to send a care package where might one send it? Asking for a friend....DM coordinates if it would be helpful.

Same goes for you B4H14.
 
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#34,109
#34,109
Epidemiologist: Coronavirus could be ‘exterminated’ if lockdowns were lifted | The College Fix

Knut Wittkowski, previously the longtime head of the Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Research Design at the Rockefeller University in New York City, said in an interview with the Press and the Public Project that the coronavirus could be “exterminated” if we permitted most people to lead normal lives and sheltered the most vulnerable parts of society until the danger had passed.
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Asked about Anthony Fauci, the White House medical expert who for weeks has been predicting significant numbers of COVID-19 deaths in America as well as major ongoing disruptions to daily life possibly for years, Wittkowski replied: “Well, I’m not paid by the government, so I’m entitled to actually do science.”
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#34,110
#34,110
hjeagle1vol said:
If one desired to send a care package where might one send it? Asking for a friend....DM coordinates if it would be helpful.

Same goes for you B4H14.
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That is incredibly thoughtful... I'm very moved by it. I don't know what to say. I really don't want anyone to go to any trouble though. Honestly, just this message and the compassion behind it helps. I will be fine and I hope everyone else is too. Things will work out somehow. Take care of yourselves and your families. Our country needs this type of spirit right now. Thank you so much. It is amazing how much better you can feel from a short message from an anonymous stranger....
 
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#34,111
#34,111
titansvolsfaninga said:
you kind of expect the medical community to approach it the same way they approach every drug, by doing clinical trials and so forth. I think they are kind of pressured because donald keeps touting it, and fox news keeps touting it, people are demanding it. Saying that it works, and then anecdotal stories come out.
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No, they are pressured because they and the media have created a narrative, whether true or not, that this pandemic needs to be quickly addressed or else millions will die. With that in mind, the time usually needed for those clinical trials is not there... no matter WTF Trump says. The medical community (or some in the medical community) have created this situation where they feel rushed. Nothing Donald Trump could have done or said would have changed that.
 
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#34,112
#34,112
rjd970 said:
Epidemiologist: Coronavirus could be ‘exterminated’ if lockdowns were lifted | The College Fix

Asked about Anthony Fauci, the White House medical expert who for weeks has been predicting significant numbers of COVID-19 deaths in America as well as major ongoing disruptions to daily life possibly for years, Wittkowski replied: “Well, I’m not paid by the government, so I’m entitled to actually do science.”
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giphy.gif
 
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#34,114
#34,114
BowlBrother85 said:
That is incredibly thoughtful... I'm very moved by it. I don't know what to say. I really don't want anyone to go to any trouble though. Honestly, just this message and the compassion behind it helps. I will be fine and I hope everyone else is too. Things will work out somehow. Take care of yourselves and your families. Our country needs this type of spirit right now. Thank you so much. It is amazing how much better you can feel from a short message from an anonymous stranger....
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I understand that, but honestly, the day blending in with a helping hand becomes "troublesome" isn't possible for some folks. It just isn't in their DNA. Offer stands until it's no longer helpful.
 
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#34,115
#34,115
allvol123 said:
Point 1 is not accurate. He has major skin in the game. His job is to relay to his superior confidence levels of where we would hit doing this versus that. To have 30 plus years in, he appears to have blown chunks.
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I’m confused by this. Vs what? When you have exponential growth, things like social distancing or light lockdowns make huge differences. If you decrease R by let’s say 30%, the growth rate of new cases is hugely impacted. If you’re Fauci - there is no equation that tells you as you encourage people to social distance, how much their average contact rate will be impacted. But even an impact of 30% lower has huge ramifications early in an epidemic.

Let’s look at doubling time.

Early in an epidemic when the in infected population is near 100%, you can write the doubling time expression as:

t_double = ln(2) * d / (R - 1)

Here d is the number of days someone is infectious and actually contacting people. That’s estimated around 7 days. But we can just ratio doubling times at different Rs to see how much we have slowed it down independent of d (it cancels out in the division).

So as you get the R closer to 1, the doubling time explodes meaning you really slow the spread.

So if we compare a virus with an R0 of lets say 2.1. If we reduce contact by .3 through social distancing then that becomes 1.5. That means the doubling time increases by a factor of 2.3. So if we were doubling every 4.4 days now it is every 10.3 days. Huge difference! Let’s use that below.

So if we had 2MM actual cases on 3/23 when we imposed tougher restrictions and lets assume R0 was 2.1 before and 1.47 after. That means today we’d have the same number of deaths to date (because it takes about two weeks to die). But now our total number of cases would be (15 days/4.41 days/double) 3.4 doublings. Or 21 MM cases. On the other hand reducing contact by 30% would put us at (15 days / 10.3 days/double) = 1.5 doublings, or 5.5 MM cases today. That is a delta of 15.5 MM cases. Assuming a mortality rate of 0.66% that means 100,000 deaths were will have been avoided by roughly 4/22 by reducing contact by 30%. 36k vs 136k.

I don’t know what the exact R0 or d is. And I don’t know what the actual number of cases was on 3/23. And I don’t know whether we’ve reduced contact by more or less than 30%. But I think the numbers I used above are fair. And the impact is very apparent. It’s that 1/(R-1) impact that makes driving R closer to 1 so important.

Bigger reductions in R are required now when fewer people are immune that would be required later after this wave or subsequent waves.
 
#34,117
#34,117
Someone asking Trump about a pardon for that Tiger King guy. Don't people know that they left out quite a bit of the story which made him guilty?
 
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#34,118
#34,118
hjeagle1vol said:
If one desired to send a care package where might one send it? Asking for a friend....DM coordinates if it would be helpful.

Same goes for you B4H14.
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I agree. I would have no problem sending either one some coin via PayPay or whatever. I have been fortunate in life and have no problem helping someone in a time of need!
 
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#34,119
#34,119
TennTradition said:
I’m confused by this. Vs what? When you have exponential growth, things like social distancing or light lockdowns make huge differences. If you decrease R by let’s say 30%, the growth rate of new cases is hugely impacted. If you’re Fauci - there is no equation that tells you as you encourage people to social distance, how much their average contact rate will be impacted. But even an impact of 30% lower has huge ramifications early in an epidemic.

Let’s look at doubling time.

Early in an epidemic when the in infected population is near 100%, you can write the doubling time expression as:

t_double = ln(2) * d / (R - 1)

Here d is the number of days someone is infectious and actually contacting people. That’s estimated around 7 days. But we can just ratio doubling times at different Rs to see how much we have slowed it down independent of d (it cancels out in the division).

So as you get the R closer to 1, the doubling time explodes meaning you really slow the spread.

So if we compare a virus with an R0 of lets say 2.1. If we reduce contact by .3 through social distancing then that becomes 1.5. That means the doubling time increases by a factor of 2.3. So if we were doubling every 4.4 days now it is every 10.3 days. Huge difference! Let’s use that below.

So if we had 2MM actual cases on 3/23 when we imposed tougher restrictions and lets assume R0 was 2.1 before and 1.47 after. That means today we’d have the same number of deaths to date (because it takes about two weeks to die). But now our total number of cases would be (15 days/4.41 days/double) 3.4 doublings. Or 21 MM cases. On the other hand reducing contact by 30% would put us at (15 days / 10.3 days/double) = 1.5 doublings, or 5.5 MM cases today. That is a delta of 15.5 MM cases. Assuming a mortality rate of 0.66% that means 100,000 deaths were will have been avoided by roughly 4/22 by reducing contact by 30%. 36k vs 136k.

I don’t know what the exact R0 or d is. And I don’t know what the actual number of cases was on 3/23. And I don’t know whether we’ve reduced contact by more or less than 30%. But I think the numbers I used above are fair. And the impact is very apparent. It’s that 1/(R-1) impact that makes driving R closer to 1 so important.

Bigger reductions in R are required now when fewer people are immune that would be required later after this wave or subsequent waves.
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You're confused that he should be able to give different predictions based on different routes taken?
 
#34,122
#34,122
allvol123 said:
Tennessee rated a ‘D-‘ in social distancing | WATE 6 On Your Side

So what the F. The models included social distancing. But we arent even doing a good job at social distancing. Yet, we have smashed the models.
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Look at the average reduced miles tracked. Tennessee is down about 35-40% since 3/21.

The average of the country is more like 43-45% down, so TN gets a D.

Florida gets a B- and is down just over 45%.

Vermont gets a B and they are down 50-53% or so.

No one gets an A.

So they’ve taken a narrow range of 35%-55% reduced miles traveled and graded everyone on that without giving an A. That’s not much dynamic range.

Point is TN may not have responded as much as others but their average road miles traveled are down over 35%.
 
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#34,124
#34,124
hjeagle1vol said:
If one desired to send a care package where might one send it? Asking for a friend....DM coordinates if it would be helpful.

Same goes for you B4H14.
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That means the universe to me but I’m not sure I could ever ask for something like that without feeling bad. Much appreciated though and your generosity will not be forgotten!
 
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