Recruiting Forum Football Talk II

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#123,227
#123,227
OrangenSC said:
But what does the age of the patient have to do with how many beds are needed or available? Doesn't matter if 4% or 40% of those hospitalized are under 55. Whatever their age, Ii they need a bed, they need a bed.
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It was a response to the notion we should let younger people and those without conditions roam freely to help the economy.

If young, otherwise healthy people still get hospitalized in large numbers (though smaller percentages than more at-risk groups), unmitigated virus spread through that population will still lead to an overrun on hospitals, which is one of the outcomes mitigation efforts were working to curtail.
 
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#123,228
#123,228
Crazy Ivan said:
JEB Stuart. Sort of jokingly.

Buford's cavalry was critical in the initial skirmish on Day 1.

Chamberlain's decision to attach bayonets and charge down the hill.

Lee, for not allowing Longstreet to swing his division further to the right and flank the Union left.
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Yep. Not letting Longstreet flank was big. Also, had Stuart not been late to the party, things could have been different.
 
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#123,230
#123,230
OrangenSC said:
If there had been NO mitigation, clearly the numbers would be higher than they are now. But using the argument of NO mitigation is a straw man. There was never going to be NO mitigation. And there was never going to be 2 million dead in the US from this as was being pushed. NEVER.

The realistic question is, what would the numbers now be if we had only done the normal things we should always do during disease season, i.e., frequently wash your hands, when coughing or sneezing do so into your elbow, stay home if your sick especially with a fever. I suspect the numbers would be higher, but only speculation how much higher. Those who think we've reacted appropriately would insist the numbers would much higher than those who think we've over reacted.
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My position was always that 1M to 2M were possible per mortality and R0 estimates, but I have never believed it would get to that. It is absolutely true that just being aware of the potential is mitigating in itself, but the virus spread pretty easily by being near it (as evidenced by hospitals, nursing homes, cruise ships) and distancing greatly affects that.
 
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#123,231
#123,231
Look guys...you all know that I have been on the fence about a lot of this from the beginning..but left unchecked this thing would have been a tsunami...a very real disaster

Is the mortality rate really that high?...absolutely not..but..that was never the real danger of Covid-19..

The very real danger of this bug is it's ridiculous ease of transmission, and it's stealth like abilities to infect so many without them ever even knowing it.
 
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#123,232
#123,232
Bassmaster_Vol said:
Again, as I said, the models included social distancing measures. They weren't models about what would happen without them, but with them. And even those projections did not happen. There is also speculation that this has been around much longer than we realize. Again, we may never know if we have done the right thing or not, but I continue to believe that this thing is overblown and that there could have been a much better way without shutting the country down. The models that our president and staff went by were extraordinarily flawed.
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I don't mean to suggest models are flawless. They are just tools and only as good as their inputs. Some of which are assumptive.

I do think they can help inform our reaction.

Personally, I wish we'd done more when this thing was barely sitting on the west coast. It's possible we could have staved off even this much damage. But that would have at least come at the cost of international travel as we see in Europe and around the world.

Lots of what-ifs and maybes on something this complicated.
 
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#123,234
#123,234
drvenner said:
Who do you think made the biggest difference for the Union in the Battle of Gettysburg?
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on a macro level, i'll say grant was also pretty important.

lee's 1863 northern campaign was equal parts an attempt to boost slumping moral with a headline victory in the north and an attempt to lure grant away from his siege of vicksburg and free the mississippi river back up. as grants army marched north up the blue ridge valley, grant resisted the bait and stayed put. if he leaves to pursue and the CSA regains full control of the mississippi river, the war could have shifted in a meaningful way.
 
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#123,235
#123,235
OrangenSC said:
If there had been NO mitigation, clearly the numbers would be higher than they are now. But using the argument of NO mitigation is a straw man. There was never going to be NO mitigation. And there was never going to be 2 million dead in the US from this as was being pushed. NEVER.

The realistic question is, what would the numbers now be if we had only done the normal things we should always do during disease season, i.e., frequently wash your hands, when coughing or sneezing do so into your elbow, stay home if your sick especially with a fever. I suspect the numbers would be higher, but only speculation how much higher. Those who think we've reacted appropriately would insist the numbers would much higher than those who think we've over reacted.
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I have a hard time saying never. I am interested to see how this thing moves in the next few weeks and then again in the months that follow. If it could just go ahead and fizzle out, I'd really appreciate it.
 
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#123,238
#123,238
vol72 said:
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Actually the constitutional convention took place in the middle of the big yellow fever epidemic.
 
#123,239
#123,239
Kristy* said:
NY. Their death rates are lower than they are reporting because of the lack of testing.

There are so many asymptomatic and mild cases, that every state is under-reporting cases. Impossible to account for every case.
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i understand all that. my smart ass point was that Tennesseans are still out there, walking around ngaf. I hope everyone is safe, clearly. I fear next two weeks will be crucial for us.

Despite being completely under prepared with testing.
 
#123,240
#123,240
MarcoVol said:
No it’ll just be good news/ good news. It’ll mean that we took it seriously and listened to medical professionals and kept our distance, this helping tamp the spread of the virus and preventing deaths that would have occurred otherwise.
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And avoiding a larger economic catastrophe if left unmitigated. Triple win.
 
#123,242
#123,242
drvenner said:
Who do you think made the biggest difference for the Union in the Battle of Gettysburg?
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Just to be different, I’ll say Winfield Scott Hancock. His decisions in the waning hours of Day 1 allowed the Union to hold most of the best defensive positions as the rest of the battle unfolded.

If Meade had not trusted Hancock’s judgment, the Union would have likely fallen back to Pipe Creek, and been in a much more precarious situation.
 
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#123,243
#123,243
Batman1948 said:
If that's the case, why bother with having a primary in every state? He's the only one left standing so he'll be their guy.
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That's why they give out the deligate allocations piece meal. So that they can overrule the primaries and solve the nomination the old-fashioned way. In this case, let Soros pickem.
 
#123,244
#123,244
Jimmy Football said:
Just to be different, I’ll say Winfield Scott Hancock. His decisions in the waning hours of Day 1 allowed the Union to hold most of the best defensive positions as the rest of the battle unfolded.

If Meade had not have trusted this judgment, the Union would have likely fallen back to Pike’s Creek, and been in a much more precarious situation.
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Another good pick.
 
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#123,246
#123,246
drvenner said:
Who do you think made the biggest difference for the Union in the Battle of Gettysburg?
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Could get even deeper and say shoeless Confederate soldiers. That's the reason the battle even happened. They were looking for shoes. Was not Lee's choice of battlefield, but once the skirmishes started, he committed to it.
 
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#123,247
#123,247
Ulysees E. McGill said:
I hope the young folks that have never experienced what it is like when the Vols matter, get to see games like that again.
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I just told my 15 year old daughter that that season would be fun to go back and watch all the games from that year. We may veg out on a rainy day and knock some of them out. Can't wait to see her reaction.
 
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