Latest Coronavirus - Yikes

[Volsfaninva917]

Do you think things will return to normal after a pandemic where more than 80K people have died in 5 months? There should be and will be some changes made, because a vaccine will take about that long to get to everyone that needs it. Then you have those that won't take the vaccine. The chances of this flaring up again are pretty good.

You're about 20K high on your death number there that continues to drop, also there will be changes but the country can not remain in a coma state for 18 more months
IHME | COVID-19 Projections
These are the projections released this morning, the virus is losing its scare factor

 

[McDad]

I wonder with the release of these updated projections how we'll respond.

Americanally

 

[DinkinFlicka]

The freedom to do stupid things has led to many innovations. Many things look dumb til they work.

Ah, the ole "hold my beer" philosophy. Some of my greatest omens of clarity have come when the fog was thickest with the uncertainty of risk and hapless bravery.

 

[Volsfaninva917]

They have to return to normal. Otherwise we replace deaths from viral infection with deaths from malnutrition.

Suicides etc

 

[DinkinFlicka]

Americanally

 

[RavinDave]

I read last night that the administration anticipated 50% compliance with stay at home orders, but in instead we are seeing 90% (I don’t know how those numbers were arrived at). Apparently that has Birx et al., coming off the 100k-200k in the first wave but I’m not sure how widely she’s saying that.

Point being, social distancing isn’t just one number or one assumption. There is a factor of how deeply we social distance AND for how long.

I’m not saying there isn’t error in this model or others - in fact, I posted here multiple times that something was off about it over the last few weeks. But just trying to give it 360 treatment.

I would guess the 50% is the factor they used originally (which led to the high-side predictions i.e. 100k to 240k deaths) while the 90% is what brings their model back in line with the actual data.

 

[Weezer]

There was no leadership from Trump and the Feds. The mayor and governor were following their lead.

Governors shouldn't look to the President for direction. His job is to lead the country. Their job is to lead their state. They should be thinking for themselves and making decisions that best benefit their state. Not sure what you gain by absolving them of their responsibility other than you get to blame Trump.

 

[allvol123]

The models were off because garbage in, garbage out. You don't know anything about the virus, so how can you model it? I'm not surprised the epidemiologists, who are most likely academics or CDC folks, don't understand the idea of garbage in, garbage out. Those places don't have accountability. Nobody holds their hands to the fire when wrong.


We should have done targeted quarantine and not shut down the economy. Do people not realize shutting the country down is unprecedented? You don't do that over a virus a bit worse than the flu. The stats are clear, it's mostly the very elderly and at risk populations.

Kids aren't living right now. No school, no friends, some have no food. And if this goes longer, a lot of families won't have food, homes, health care. This is ridiculous.

So much truth in this. I know these people are essential in a modern society, but they dont have any accountability. Which we see on an extreme level here, has dire consequences. They are the last ones that will ever have to worry about the economics here, the people on the state and federal dole.

 

[McDad]

This is where I'm at. Seems like some are seeing the sun in the eye of the hurricane and are ready for spring break redux.

We need to get back to normal. While still balancing the concerns of those in our population who are most at risk.

 

[utvolpj]

There was no leadership from Trump and the Feds. The mayor and governor were following their lead.

Then why not call them out as well. Many left MG and spread throughout the country. Do they not have a responsibility to the country as well as their locality?

 

[titansvolsfaninga]

You're about 20K high on your death number there that continues to drop, also there will be changes but the country can not remain in a coma state for 18 more months
IHME | COVID-19 Projections
These are the projections released this morning, the virus is losing its scare factor

I am talking about ACTUAL deaths worldwide. It's at about 83K now, and as everyone surmises, probably more than that given the propensity for misinformation from countries like China, Russia, and North Korea.

 

[McDad]

I hadn't even considered that we'll have to deal with the anti-vaxxer crowd. Ugh.

I'm not getting a covid 19 vaccination unless I, my family, or people I am regularly around are at extreme risk.

 

[Volsfaninva917]

This is where I'm at. Seems like some are seeing the sun in the eye of the hurricane and are ready for spring break redux.

So how long should we continue down this road? 12 months, 18 months, 2 years, 5 years?

 

[NCFisher]

Andrew Jackson literally genocided thousands of people.

But orange man bad tweets mean things worst ever.

Jackson gets a bad rap. Whites hunger for land did not begin or end with him, neither did war waged upon the Indian. He was a pragmatic person who thought the tension between rising white populations in the east and native populations would not hold, and likely end with mass extermination. The rather tiny U.S. army could not begin to protect them in place, and neither the Indian nor whites particularly cared for integration. Attacks upon tribes, and their attacks on settlements, were cyclically endless. Far more Indian lives were lost to European diseases they had no immunity against.

In effect, Indian removal happened because 'we' demanded it and was inevitable. Why Jackson gets the blame for Van Buren's malignant handling of the Trail of Tears is puzzling. Overwhelmingly, whites viewed them as savages and supported Indian subjugation will into the 1900s.
Jackson was one of our better presidents.

 

[Volsfaninva917]

I am talking about ACTUAL deaths worldwide. It's at about 83K now, and as everyone surmises, probably more than that given the propensity for misinformation from countries like China, Russia, and North Korea.

Ok so if we get it under control here by say June then we should remain locked down because China can't figure things out? I say leave international travel bans in place and let China figure it out for themselves, they are to blame here

 

[Weezer]

Ah, the ole "hold my beer" philosophy. Some of my greatest omens of clarity have come when the fog was thickest with the uncertainty of risk and hapless bravery.

Exactly. I've said before, I'm pretty sure I solved the world's problems while stoned out of my gourd, unfortunately, I forgot the answer.


I'm sure people looked at the Wright Brothers and thought "idiots are going to get themselves killed".

 

[Mick]

So how long should we continue down this road? 12 months, 18 months, 2 years, 5 years?

Nobody is prepared to make that kind of projection except maybe Trump and his Easter resurrection.

 

[PEPPERJAX]

I guess you're pro big city now.

Good song!

 

[Stew Cook]

We need to get back to normality. While still balancing the concerns of those in our population who are most at risk.

I don't disagree. I've said all along that when we are equipped to be responsible, that's when we should have that expectation. Doesn't matter which analogy is used, but the ick is on everything and we just need to keep it off and out of us.

 

[Rifleman]

The projections didn't foresee that 95% of the country would actually self isolate for the majority of the past month.

For once, Americans weren't stupid about something.

That was the main mistake. They assumed people had to be told to get away from other people in a time of pandemic or they wouldn't comply.

There was data that showed people weren't waiting for their governor's input to distance though. Restaurant traffic from March in all states looks pretty much the same, for instance:

 

[utvolpj]

We need to get back to normal. While still balancing the concerns of those in our population who are most at risk.

Yes. I'm seeing reports of small, "nonessential" businesses that believe they'll be finished by May. Larger ones are holding on but they're not far behind if trucks can't roll. Neither am I for that matter

 

[McDad]

I don't disagree. I've said all along that when we are equipped to be responsible, that's when we should have that expectation. Doesn't matter which analogy is used, but the ick is on everything and we just need to keep it off and out of us.

I don't mean to come off cavalier about germs. But anyone who took microbiology and swabbed their agar with residue from payphones, door handles, and their own hands realizes we are literally surrounded by germs all day, every day. Heck, I carry staph but I am not infected.

 

[Stew Cook]

So how long should we continue down this road? 12 months, 18 months, 2 years, 5 years?

There isn't a universal answer. But I'd say the timeline is relative to the availability of alcohol wipes and masks etc.. I'd say observing those states/areas that were playing loose with the recommendations should give us a clearer picture soon.

 

[NCFisher]

...and you are either (1) an amateur internet psychoanalyst reaching a diagnosis that you are completely unqualified to give, and is also of benefit to a politically motivated agenda, or (2 and much worse) you are an actual geriatric psychologist who is reaching a diagnosis without examining the patient (Biden)... which makes you unethical.

I'm betting you are #1... and your agenda is why your opinion doesn't really mean anything. And for every Biden gaffe, we have Trump talking about airports during the Revolutionary War and not knowing the difference between Great Britain and England and referring to Prince Charles as "The Prince of Whales" on Twitter.

Not knowing something is different than forgetting it, calling daughter wife, referring to 'the Thing', and unintelligible mashing together of words and trains of thought. One of us will be proven right in the debates.

 

[McDad]

Yes. I'm seeing reports of small, "nonessential" businesses that believe they'll be finished by May. Larger ones are holding on but they're not far behind if trucks can't roll. So am I for that matter

McRib is being "asked" to use her PTO at the hospital a couple days a week. Administrators attempted to shut down therapy a couple times already. Each of her therapists and support staff are on severely reduced hours.