Latest Coronavirus - Yikes

#23,601
#23,601
volinbham said:
He's using the same projections - at least he was today.

I'm questioning when his experts updated said projections. They appear to be inline with the original Imperial model that has since been revised substantially.

IOW it gets to the point of "does he need 30k vents". Trump is right when he says he doesn't (based on some models/projections); Cuomo is right when he says he does (based on different models/projections). It's not black and white that Trump is wrong and Cuomo is right and the latest evidence better supports Trump's contention than Cuomo's.

TL;DR - both Trump and Cuomo are right/wrong depending on which model you use.
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I'm sure they are both wrong. At any rate, I think everyone has received the message that we need ventilators post haste. I have a feeling they'll be coming in on boats, trains, planes, and automobiles.
 
#23,602
#23,602
Weezer said:
And the question becomes, does NY really need them, or does Cuomo just want them there "just in case"? And once he has them, how do you take them back if he's unwilling to give them up? By force?

I get what you're saying, but you're taking a simplistic approach that would only work in an ideal world. In case you haven't noticed, that's not the world we live in.
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You don’t put others at risk to just de-risk NY.

I think that the adults can sit down and discuss how they would be ramped when needed. What is the right level of over-stock and you do the math. You make it clear the rules over the stockpile and you do a joint news conference if you have to describing the plan.

But you can’t let Americans die in NYC because you wanted to store for elsewhere unless you see that there is actual need now (or next few weeks) for the others. If that need is there then you allocate based on how far past their need is projected to surpass their current count. And you absolutely don’t send NYC everything If you think need is close elsewhere just because they’re louder.
 
#23,604
#23,604
evillawyer said:
I wonder what mortality rates are when there are ventilators available vs when they are maxed out and those in need go without. Is that why Italy's deaths are so high?
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It’s absolutely part of the reason. They are denying care to certain patients. Or at least they were recently. I don’t know if that’s changed.
 
#23,605
#23,605
Dr Dread said:
So everyone should put politics aside except for Trump. I get it now.
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Trump should as well, but him not doing so doesn't make it okay for them to follow suit. That's not a defense of their actions. In fact, they would make him look worse if they took the high road.
 
#23,610
#23,610
allvol123 said:
Dang. I'm just as unconcerned as I was 5 minutes ago.
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Kudos for keeping the "This stuff is just the flu" schtick going for 3 months. All the while there's teens, twenty year olds, and thirty year olds, with zero preexisting conditions, fighting for their life on ventilators just like someone 80.

I have no idea what you aim to accomplish typing the same sh!t over and over to twenty people in a sub forum.
 
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#23,611
#23,611
volinbham said:
As I understand it Italy's rates are high because:

1. Not enough ventilators for the surge they got
2. Lot's of poor health people (smokers, etc)

#1 seems to be the big driver but #2 put higher demand (greater % of people needing them).
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25% of Italy’s population is over 65. US is around 12%.
 
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#23,612
#23,612
Weezer said:
Trump should as well, but him not doing so doesn't make it okay for them to follow suit. That's not a defense of their actions. In fact, they would make him look worse if they took the high road.
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I would love it if both sides did that. I would also love it if Skittles were a cure for the virus. This is America. Politics is what we do.
What I’m referring to is that the messaging coming from Trump, and picked up by the GOP and the vast majority Trump supporters in this forum is that playing politics with this issue is very bad for the country, while doing exactly that. The vast majority of post here where someone is being called out for politicizing the issue are coming from the right. This mirrors what can be seen outside this forum. Sometimes it’s fair. Often times it’s not. They are pushing this narrative so that any and all criticism of Trump is considered invalid and strictly political.
At the same time, they’re being extremely political with their messaging on this issue. Especially Trump.
 
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#23,613
#23,613
Orange_Vol1321 said:
Kudos for keeping the "This stuff is just the flu" schtick going for 3 months. All the while there's teens, twenty year olds, and thirty year olds, with zero preexisting conditions, fighting for their life on ventilators just like someone 80.

I have no idea what you aim to accomplish typing the same sh!t over and over to twenty people in a sub forum.
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Just to be a counter to your nonsensical alarmist views.
 
#23,615
#23,615
TennTradition said:
If you have 100,000 ventilators in a federal stockpile and NY needs 10,000 more today, I’m saying you send them 10,000. You don’t only send them 2,000 and tell them to let people die because that’s their share of the US population (2.3%) so that’s all they get. Unless other places need them now. Most of the country is far behind NYC - you don’t hold 98% in reserve because of supply chain theory if you know that the need won’t be everywhere else right away.

My point in summary is that if NY needs them now you send them. You don’t stockpile elsewhere for the 3+ week scenario down the road so that everyone gets their equitable distribution. You save lives now. This is particularly true as we expect more and more to come available as manufacturers ramp up.

I can’t imagine the opposite - a scenario of letting people die in NY because we want to keep the rest of the nation’s stock that they don’t need for some time or might not need ever in storage?
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Potential problem #1 - the Fed doesn't have 100K vents, but 13K. Cuomo's request alone would empty the stock. If Cuomo needed al 13K today, should he get them and leave none for the rest of the country? Because that may quickly be the scenario.

He tries to explain that away by talking about curves. Based on his projections, those vents wouldn't, in practicality, be leaving NY anytime soon. NY may be ahead of the infectious curve now, but what about 7-10 days from now? Three weeks? New Orleans is already stating they'll be depleted next week.

And my model has noting to do with the population of the state, but projecting likely hospitalization rates nationally and timeline. Obviously this require input from all governors re: their state. And of course new production factors in but until it doesn't change my viewpoint. The C19 team has a lot to consider and they must be the arbiter of whether these projections are fantasy or factually based.
 
#23,616
#23,616
Stew Cook said:
Yes, he has experts doing projections and has demonstrated those. He has acknowledged that he is preparing for the worst case scenario.
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The Fed has experts, too, and the C19 response team must be the arbiter of how Fed stock is allocated, not any single governor or single state out of fifty.
 
#23,623
#23,623
NCFisher said:
Potential problem #1 - the Fed doesn't have 100K vents, but 13K. Cuomo's request alone would empty the stock. If Cuomo needed al 13K today, should he get them and leave none for the rest of the country? Because that may quickly be the scenario.

He tries to explain that away by talking about curves. Based on his projections, those vents wouldn't, in practicality, be leaving NY anytime soon. NY may be ahead of the infectious curve now, but what about 7-10 days from now? Three weeks? New Orleans is already stating they'll be depleted next week.

And my model has noting to do with the population of the state, but projecting likely hospitalization rates nationally and timeline. Obviously this require input from all governors re: their state. And of course new production factors in but until it doesn't change my viewpoint. The C19 team has a lot to consider and they must be the arbiter of whether these projections are fantasy or factually based.
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All reasonable points.

They don’t get 13,000 if you think NOLA needs some next week. I think you send them 3000 to double their number. It was 3000 wasn’t it? You then double up who needs it next. NOLA? Detroit? But if NY needs more I would say send them more. But all of this is done under the notion that should other states have a need that the federal government can’t fill that there might be ventilators pulled back to provide to another state when it becomes available. That’s not ideal. It’s somewhat inefficient. But if we have a fire we are going to have to firefight. I don’t think you can let people die for lack of ventilators in NY while you hold ventilators in a stockpile UNLESS you see imminent need for all those in the stockpile elsewhere across the country. If NYC NEEDS (not wants) them first, they get them first. But we’ll have to have a discussion about what happens next.
 
#23,625
#23,625
NCFisher said:
The Fed has experts, too, and the C19 response team must be the arbiter of how Fed stock is allocated, not any single governor or single state out of fifty.
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I think I see what you’re saying now.

If federal modeling suggests the need elsewhere is imminent then they have full authority to distribute accordingly. On need.
 
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