5* recruiting (debunked)

#226
#226
bamawriter said:
Gotcha. Anyone who believes that is an idiot.

Although I think someome on Randy Shannon's staff at Miami claimed that they did make offers based upon the rankings. Which says way more about Shannon than the rankings.



Too true.
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Imo, Jones recruited off of rankings often also. Fit be damned.
Pruitt already has some respect, obviously not Saban level but our last commit made a ridiculous jump in like 2 hours.
That's not service "evaluations", it's the reality of what they are.

Saban doesn't recruit five STAR players, he recruits extremely talented players that in turn become ranked 5 stars.
Our fans need to hope Pruitt can do the same. Because if we wait until they're offered enough to get highly ranked, we are already way behind in their recruitment.
 
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#227
#227
bamawriter said:
I didn't take it that way. I just think it requires a short memory to say "All those elite high school guys faced adversity and quit," when Saban has been recruiting at the same level for 12 years and that was the first game his team has lost by more than 2 scores.
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Do you not feel like some of them quit? Im sorry... if at least some of them didn't, Bama doesnt get beat like that by nobody. That looked like us vs Vandy and Mizzu last yr and it's no secret that we quit before the last 2 games. We know what quittting looks like round these parts and that looked like a familiar sight by the 3rd qtr.
 
#229
#229
VolForLife83 said:
There is more lower stars than that of 4 and 5* guys. Alabama, Clemson, Georgia etc have proven blue chips win championships.



Are some higher rated plays overrated? Yes. Are some lower guys overlooked, for whatever reason? Yes

But don't kid yourself, we need highly rated players
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You could have all the five stars in the world and still lose though. I bet butch would have lost with those players you speak of. The class we just signed is as good as any. We got some damn football coaches now!
 
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#230
#230
I think I remember Bill Snyder at KSU stating that over his entire career, he only had one 5* recruit, and he never played. He had some solid teams over the years due to good coaching and recruiting his type of players. Still, I wouldn’t be heartbroken to snag some 5*s.
 
#231
#231
99gator said:
My opinion here.....as a general rule.....

The skill guys are usually rated correctly. There are exceptions. not denying that. RB's, DB's, WR's, etc, usually are pretty spot on.

What is harder to rate, for obvious reasons, are the big uglies. It's much hard to figure out what will happen with a 6'3 270lb offensive lineman. What happens after they put 30 to 40 lbs on him? Does he grow another two inches? Is he not the offensive tackle he was expected to be, but makes a hell of a guard or center? After putting the 30 to 40 lbs on him, do they discover he makes one hell of a defensive tackle after 1 DT leaves early for the NFL and 2 others tear ACL's in spring practice?

The big uglies are hard to figure out and they even do a pretty good job rating those guys.

But, usually when we give coaches credit for find a diamond in the rough. They just got lucky. They didn't know they 6 foot kid they signed would grow to be 6'6 while on campus.
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Pretty much this. If you get some skill guys who are highly rated and sprinkle in some guys that will be a great fit for your system that is a good recipe for success. Look at Hunter Refrow. He was a QB in high school back in the 2010 class with no big offers, but he was perfect for Dabo’s system. Based on output alone he jumps from a zero star to a four star because he has had the ability compliment all those good wideouts.
 
#232
#232
1vol8 said:
Do you not feel like some of them quit? Im sorry... if at least some of them didn't, Bama doesnt get beat like that by nobody. That looked like us vs Vandy and Mizzu last yr and it's no secret that we quit before the last 2 games. We know what quittting looks like round these parts and that looked like a familiar sight by the 3rd qtr.
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They definitely quit.

But you are missing the point. They didn't quit because they were entitled athletes with high star rankings. There is no correlation.
 
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#233
#233
bamawriter said:
They definitely quit.

But you are missing the point. They didn't quit because they were entitled athletes with high star rankings. There is no correlation.
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Actually I think you missed mine. Im not suggesting 5*players quit in situations like that because they feel entitled. I mean that they don't know how to react when they've never dealt with it. These powerhouse HS don't face the competition like some think (unless you're IMG, Mater Dei or St.Johns Bosco). They face teams from their own divisions just like any other team and the higher rated guys play for the team that the others just don't stack up with. So when they get to college and meet a team that gives them their first taste of their own ass by ringing their bell they don't know how to react. They're used to playing for teams that the opponents are already beat mentally before they step foot on the field just because of who his respective team is. I actually think that's the case in most games for Alabama every yr. There's a certain level of fear knowing Alabama is warming up on the other side of the field if you're the lesser team. Trevor Lawrence is a good example. Yes he played well against you BUT he never faced much pressure in hs. He hasnt faced it much in college. The result of that is erratic passes the few times Bamas D didn't give him a clean pocket. So I'll be the first to say I think he's overrated. The highest rated qb in 247 history should be able to handle pressure. Jmho
 
#234
#234
bamawriter said:
They definitely quit.

But you are missing the point. They didn't quit because they were entitled athletes with high star rankings. There is no correlation.
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No. They quit because they were entitled athletes who had been told how great they were all season...til they got smacked in the nose.
 
#236
#236
1vol8 said:
Actually I think you missed mine. Im not suggesting 5*players quit in situations like that because they feel entitled. I mean that they don't know how to react when they've never dealt with it. These powerhouse HS don't face the competition like some think (unless you're IMG, Mater Dei or St.Johns Bosco). They face teams from their own divisions just like any other team and the higher rated guys play for the team that the others just don't stack up with. So when they get to college and meet a team that gives them their first taste of their own ass by ringing their bell they don't know how to react. They're used to playing for teams that the opponents are already beat mentally before they step foot on the field just because of who his respective team is. I actually think that's the case in most games for Alabama every yr. There's a certain level of fear knowing Alabama is warming up on the other side of the field if you're the lesser team. Trevor Lawrence is a good example. Yes he played well against you BUT he never faced much pressure in hs. He hasnt faced it much in college. The result of that is erratic passes the few times Bamas D didn't give him a clean pocket. So I'll be the first to say I think he's overrated. The highest rated qb in 247 history should be able to handle pressure. Jmho
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You are looking for a correlation that simply isn't there. Watch 10 college football games on a given weekend and in half you'll see teams quit. They don't quit because they have never faced adversity; they quit because getting your butt kicked sucks. Even if you weren't mentally beat before kickoff, it's not hard to get there when you're getting rolled.

Trying to link that to recruiting rankings is a stretch. 2 stars are every bit as likely to get mentally whipped as 5 stars, if not more so.
 
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#237
#237
bamawriter said:
You are looking for a correlation that simply isn't there. Watch 10 college football games on a given weekend and in half you'll see teams quit. They don't quit because they have never faced adversity; they quit because getting your butt kicked sucks. Even if you weren't mentally beat before kickoff, it's not hard to get there when you're getting rolled.

Trying to link that to recruiting rankings is a stretch. 2 stars are every bit as likely to get mentally whipped as 5 stars, if not more so.
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I can't disagree with that because I'm not inside their heads. So who knows
 
#240
#240
bamawriter said:
Can you give an example of a team that won a NC without recruiting at or around the Top 10? If you already have, I apologize. I haven't read the entire thread.
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In a scheme that needs and gets a generational player its possible for an outlier. But to be in the discussion year after year you need depth that comes from constant recruiting at a top 10 level.
 
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#241
#241
Smokeyone said:
In a scheme that needs and gets a generational player its possible for an outlier. But to be in the discussion year after year you need depth that comes from constant recruiting at a top 10 level.
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Exactly. How people can hide their heads in the sand and ignore the obvious is simply mindboggling.
 
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#242
#242
Devo182 said:
Exactly. How people can hide their heads in the sand and ignore the obvious is simply mindboggling.
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Opinions...analogies. Everybody’s got em. Rankings are arbitrary. Get talent and develop. Being a whore to recruiting service rankings is equivalent to having one’s head up something else.
 
#243
#243
1vol8 said:
So let me get this straight..... if any team that wants to compete for a NC needs a top 10 class every yr, are we saying that Butch Jones could take over in Alabama, do things his way and win a natty?
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Let me introduce you to national championship winning coaches Larry Coker and Gene Chizik. Coker won it his first year at Miami due to the most talented roster in college football history. He was fired after going 7-6 once all the players from the previous administration left. Chizik won it his 2nd year at Auburn. He was fired 2 years later after going 3-9.

If Butch was named the head coach at Alabama today he would at least take them to the playoffs in 2019. Heck, our 2015 team was 3 plays away from going 11-1 (including a win over Saban) and their talent was no where close to what Bama has now.
 
#244
#244
Original point of this thread. We got two 5 stars to Clemson’s one in 19...we’re better.
 
#245
#245
I found this interesting.

5 star recruits that the recruiting services got right in the last decade by position.

Qb- 9-23
Rb- 12-51
Wr- 10- 38
OL- 20-37
Dt- 6-27
DE- 11-31
LB- 10-37
DB- 19-43

That's looks (by my math) around a 30% success rate. Which equals a 70% chance they are wrong. Ill stick to my original opinion that they don't fully evaluate ANYONE.
 
#246
#246
1vol8 said:
I found this interesting.

5 star recruits that the recruiting services got right in the last decade by position.

Qb- 9-23
Rb- 12-51
Wr- 10- 38
OL- 20-37
Dt- 6-27
DE- 11-31
LB- 10-37
DB- 19-43

That's looks (by my math) around a 30% success rate. Which equals a 70% chance they are wrong. Ill stick to my original opinion that they don't fully evaluate ANYONE.
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Can you link? How is this defining "got right?"
 
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#247
#247
bamawriter said:
Can you link? How is this defining "got right?"
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I would if I knew how. Call me ignorant but I'm not as computer savy as these young buck or dudes with office jobs. I still actually carry a play BOOK.

you can google "how many 5 star players panned out in the last decade". Its a saturday down south artical.
 
#248
#248
1vol8 said:
I would if I knew how. Call me ignorant but I'm not as computer savy as these young buck or dudes with office jobs. I still actually carry a play BOOK.

you can google "how many 5 star players panned out in the last decade". Its a saturday down south artical.
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Can you at least say what defines "panned out?" Doe sit mean they put up certain numbers? Went in the first round?
 
#249
#249
bamawriter said:
Can you at least say what defines "panned out?" Doe sit mean they put up certain numbers? Went in the first round?
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It appears to mean just being drafted judging by the names that were given. For example in parentheses it has the best of the position out of the names given and Tim Tebow was the best of the bunch at qb. I take that as they mean "panned out" as simply being drafted, no matter the round.
 
#250
#250
1vol8 said:
It appears to mean just being drafted judging by the names that were given. For example in parentheses it has the best of the position out of the names given and Tim Tebow was the best of the bunch at qb. I take that as they mean "panned out" as simply being drafted, no matter the round.
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If it means "drafted in any round" then those numbers are simply wrong.
 
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