5* recruiting (debunked)

#201
#201
1vol8 said:
Were they mostly 3* players when Saban took over at Bama?
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I'd have to double back to check. Shula was consistently middle of the pack in the SEC. The only 5 star Saban inherited was Andre Smith.

Edit: Smith might have been a 4.
 
#204
#204
1vol8 said:
Lmao. Concider me lazy
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Haha. I'm with you, pal.

I'm not even disagreeing with the premise that it could happen. I simply don't think that it will be very common. Recruiting is the most important part of a college coach's job. That doesn't mean that scheme and development aren't important. But give me a choice between an amazing recruiter who is a decent gameday coach and an amazing gameday coach who is a decent recruiter, and I'm taking the former every single time.
 
#206
#206
bamawriter said:
Haha. I'm with you, pal.

I'm not even disagreeing with the premise that it could happen. I simply don't think that it will be very common. Recruiting is the most important part of a college coach's job. That doesn't mean that scheme and development aren't important. But give me a choice between an amazing recruiter who is a decent gameday coach and an amazing gameday coach who is a decent recruiter, and I'm taking the former every single time.
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I did it man! Your Bama superiority got to me. Lol
 
#207
#207
Thought some might find this interesting

I have been coaching and examining the recruiting/scouting system for a little over 2 years now, and I have been asked thousands of times, "how do I get stars or become a ranked player
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Rivals
At Rivals, you better go to a "3 Stripe camp" or whatever they call it nowadays. You will then be graded using a wacky system of points to fall "among your peers", which by the looks of things is a very limited selection of so-called "Top Recruits".
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247
You can submit your info to 247 sports, but as you will read, you must already have major recruiting interest and/or actual offers. They like you to include this in the email to them as seen by clicking here.
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99% of the time, your success rate will be determined on your "recruiting interest"
Now that you have all of this media attention, they will give you your grade and add stars based on how many more offers you attain.
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Merf Trout - Scout Trout Elite LLC
 
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#208
#208
bamawriter said:
So we're talking 3 in the past 16 years, and the lowest ranked of the bunch was 16th and happened to have a transfer QB who produced one of the best season's ever? Not sure if this helps your case.
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I didn't expect it to help by any means. Possibly the reason I didn't want to look. But nevertheless we're both not wrong. It could happen with the right players and coach. That's been my argument all along. The word "likely" to happen never crossed my thumb.
 
#209
#209
BigOrangeTrain said:
Yeah Saban built the greatest football dynasty with 3*s right? I guess it’s just a coincidence that his evaluations include tons of highly rated players. Same with Meyer.
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Somehow when he doesn’t land or take a player their rating drops...helps with the science of it. When the services pander to his evaluations, shocking when they’re not highly ranked. As for Fulmer, nowhere in my point did I advocate him taking SOLELY 3 stars...just not trusting the services for his vetting. When he was at his best in recruiting during the 90’s, it’s not a coincidence that the star system didn’t exist. Soon as he started trusting the eggheads to find HIS PLAYERS, the program mysteriously started slipping.
 
#211
#211
butchna said:
Somehow when he doesn’t land or take a player their rating drops...helps with the science of it. When the services pander to his evaluations, shocking when they’re not highly ranked. As for Fulmer, nowhere in my point did I advocate him taking SOLELY 3 stars...just not trusting the services for his vetting. When he was at his best in recruiting during the 90’s, it’s not a coincidence that the star system didn’t exist. Soon as he started trusting the eggheads to find HIS PLAYERS, the program mysteriously started slipping.
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Good point
 
#213
#213
chargervol said:
Thought some might find this interesting


Rivals

247


Merf Trout - Scout Trout Elite LLC
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If one were to develop a recruiting "ranking" that looked at nothing but offers, and gave added weight to the guys who are considered elite recruiters (Saban, Smart, Dabo, etc), do you think those rankings would be fairly predictive of on-field success?
 
#214
#214
1vol8 said:
That's kind of the point as well. I want to make it clear that there is nothing WRONG with a top 10 class or signing multiple 5* players. What Im trying to get through to a few on here is a 3* recruit is likely under evaluated by 247 if he happens to play on a bad team. You can take that same 3* and put him in a HS powerhouse program and all of a sudden he's a 4* or better yet hes no different of a player(seen it happen several times). You can't properly evaluate any player based on highlight film and camps. You also can't properly evaluate a player without considering his situation around him in the fall. The same can be said for blue chip players as well. Due to the school they play for they tend to get overrated a lot(not all). JG is a prime example of this. His stats were not 4* status but his school was a pretty good one. Now I've only seen highlights so it's hard to say he DIDN'T deserve his rank but the individual stats didn't look like most 4* qbs stats. Point is too many people put too much faith in 247 and not enough in the coaches that actually DO know how to evaluate and actually DO go to a game or 2.
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My opinion here.....as a general rule.....

The skill guys are usually rated correctly. There are exceptions. not denying that. RB's, DB's, WR's, etc, usually are pretty spot on.

What is harder to rate, for obvious reasons, are the big uglies. It's much hard to figure out what will happen with a 6'3 270lb offensive lineman. What happens after they put 30 to 40 lbs on him? Does he grow another two inches? Is he not the offensive tackle he was expected to be, but makes a hell of a guard or center? After putting the 30 to 40 lbs on him, do they discover he makes one hell of a defensive tackle after 1 DT leaves early for the NFL and 2 others tear ACL's in spring practice?

The big uglies are hard to figure out and they even do a pretty good job rating those guys.

But, usually when we give coaches credit for find a diamond in the rough. They just got lucky. They didn't know they 6 foot kid they signed would grow to be 6'6 while on campus.
 
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#215
#215
bamawriter said:
If one were to develop a recruiting "ranking" that looked at nothing but offers, and gave added weight to the guys who are considered elite recruiters (Saban, Smart, Dabo, etc), do you think those rankings would be fairly predictive of on-field success?
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Wtf???
What I've been saying the entire time while you've been arguing for the sake of arguing.
 
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#217
#217
chargervol said:
Wtf???
What I've been saying the entire time while you've been arguing for the sake of arguing.
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My point is that you're arguing as if doing so is some kind of problem. Why wouldn't the recruiting services give weight to the offers of elite recruiting coaches? If all they do is summarize, consolidate, and rank those offers, it would appear to be a pretty intelligent business model.

If I am missing your point, then I apologize.
 
#218
#218
bamawriter said:
If one were to develop a recruiting "ranking" that looked at nothing but offers, and gave added weight to the guys who are considered elite recruiters (Saban, Smart, Dabo, etc), do you think those rankings would be fairly predictive of on-field success?
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Idk that this answers your question but I feel like on field success is a mindset. My biggest fear of any 4/5* is the fact that most of them come from elite HS programs. The mindset of those players is "Im the best because everybody told me so". Then they meet a team that hits them in the mouth and from my experience the mindset changes to "Wtf just happened?" "Ive never had that happen before". The result is they don't know how to react.
If there's one thing that we can take a shot at Bama with its the fact that that happened to them in the NC game. Some of those boys quit imo. No other way to explain such a blowout when everyone expected the blowout to be the other way around.
 
#219
#219
1vol8 said:
Idk that this answers your question but I feel like on field success is a mindset. My biggest fear of any 4/5* is the fact that most of them come from elite HS programs. The mindset of those players is "Im the best because everybody told me so". Then they meet a team that hits them in the mouth and from my experience the mindset changes to "Wtf just happened?" "Ive never had that happen before". The result is they don't know how to react.
If there's one thing that we can take a shot at Bama with its the fact that that happened to them in the NC game. Some of those boys quit imo. No other way to explain such a blowout when everyone expected the blowout to be the other way around.
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Okay. The same type of guys have won half the national titles of the past decade. And Clemson is an elite recruiting program at the moment, so the situation doesn't exactly play against type.
 
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#220
#220
99gator said:
My opinion here.....as a general rule.....

The skill guys are usually rated correctly. There are exceptions. not denying that. RB's, DB's, WR's, etc, usually are pretty spot on.

What is harder to rate, for obvious reasons, are the big uglies. It's much hard to figure out what will happen with a 6'3 270lb offensive lineman. What happens after they put 30 to 40 lbs on him? Does he grow another two inches? Is he not the offensive tackle he was expected to be, but makes a hell of a guard or center? After putting the 30 to 40 lbs on him, do they discover he makes one hell of a defensive tackle after 1 DT leaves early for the NFL and 2 others tear ACL's in spring practice?

The big uglies are hard to figure out and they even do a pretty good job rating those guys.

But, usually when we give coaches credit for find a diamond in the rough. They just got lucky. They didn't know they 6 foot kid they signed would grow to be 6'6 while on campus.
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I think for the most part you're right. Although I would say Qbs are what they get wrong most. I can't blame them completely because a qb is hard as hell to evaluate. Its the hardest position to play in all of sports imo. And the are way too many variables that play a part in his success or failure. Hes the only player that has to read 11 mens movements at one time. 21 if you include his own players which we should.
A qb that plays for a good team that protects him well gets recognized as the better qb Than the one that doesn't. My point is to properly evaluate a qb they also must evaluate his receivers, o line and backs. Without any of them to help he's out there by himself and recruiting services don't account for that.
 
#221
#221
bamawriter said:
My point is that you're arguing as if doing so is some kind of problem. Why wouldn't the recruiting services give weight to the offers of elite recruiting coaches? If all they do is summarize, consolidate, and rank those offers, it would appear to be a pretty intelligent business model.

If I am missing your point, then I apologize.
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The problem is how many here believe coaches recruit based off stars. Kids are unranked until they're not.
ALL good coaches recruit off of need and evaluation. People need to worry about whether or not our staff can evaluate, not the "eggheads". They're nothing more than followers.
 
#222
#222
bamawriter said:
Okay. The same type of guys have won half the national titles of the past decade. And Clemson is an elite recruiting program at the moment, so the situation doesn't exactly play against type.
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Trust me Im not talking s***. Any of us would love to be in Bamas shoes.
 
#223
#223
chargervol said:
The problem is how many here believe coaches recruit based off stars. Kids are unranked until they're not.
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Gotcha. Anyone who believes that is an idiot.

Although I think someome on Randy Shannon's staff at Miami claimed that they did make offers based upon the rankings. Which says way more about Shannon than the rankings.

ALL good coaches recruit off of need and evaluation. People need to worry about whether or not our staff can evaluate, not the "eggheads". They're nothing more than followers.
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Too true.
 
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#224
#224
1vol8 said:
Trust me Im not talking s***. Any of us would love to be in Bamas shoes.
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I didn't take it that way. I just think it requires a short memory to say "All those elite high school guys faced adversity and quit," when Saban has been recruiting at the same level for 12 years and that was the first game his team has lost by more than 2 scores.
 
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#225
#225
bamawriter said:
My point is that you're arguing as if doing so is some kind of problem. Why wouldn't the recruiting services give weight to the offers of elite recruiting coaches? If all they do is summarize, consolidate, and rank those offers, it would appear to be a pretty intelligent business model.

If I am missing your point, then I apologize.
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That's the lazy part of recruiting services I was referring to. They make that much money they should get complete hs game film and break it down for whatever player vs giving him anything based on who offered. Its basically like saying dispite this 300,000.00 check I have to cash I see that Sabon and Meyer offered so they did my evaluation for me.
 
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