I know I'm not going to convince you, and that's fine. I'm not saying any of those 15 guys are "sure" things -- I'm saying the sitting P5 coaches are "surer" things than a Frost or other G5 coach. Frost is only in his 2nd season as a HC. Rich Rod has won 4 conference titles and been to 3 BCS/NY6 bowls, and taken Arizona to their 3rd best season in program history. He's a much "surer" thing than Frost is at this point, even though Frost may have miles and miles of more potential upside.
And like I said in a different post, I think it is a moot point on Frost because we aren't going to be higher than 3rd on HIS list, and one of Nebraska or Florida is likely to take him anyway. If UCLA, Texas A&M or some other places were to open, there is a good chance we may not be in HIS top 5.