A Fair Benchmark for Butch: 6-2 in SEC or: Why the Negas have a Point

[Boca Vol]

It can't be both ways. The OP used numbers across all years and factored that into the percentages. So the winning percentage average is the winning percentage average.

The OP did not use real statistics and look at the median and use bell curves to account for the different number of games over the years.

I did the same thing - looked for the percentage of wins based on the number of games played. Some of those coaches were not a good in the SEC as some of you think they were.

Right and when you have the advantage of a built-in win with the 12th game (APSU, TN Tech, UTC, etc) it skews the number when you only have a 12 game sample size.

 

[CountVolcula]

Great point. The extra win, with the 12th game, skews the %.



Yes, but this was a comparison to UT coaches. Fulmer, with the exception of a couple of seasons, didn't have a 12th game.

I even gave him credit for his 3 bowl wins because they are quality opponents

That means is regular season winning % his a little worse

 

[jakez4ut]

The SEC mark of 14-18 is most telling, and concerning to me. That is where it counts for most of us, and it is where we are most lacking currently.

i'm willing to throw out Butch's first two years, considering the situation. it wasn't exactly set up to win right away.

however, the last two years...he's 9-7 in the SEC... .563.

which i think gets us closer to what he really is...an average coach.

 

[CountVolcula]

i'm willing to throw out Butch's first two years, considering the situation. it wasn't exactly set up to win right away.

however, the last two years...he's 9-7 in the SEC... .563.

which i think gets us closer to what he really is...an average coach.

I fully expect that winning % will take a hit next year

7-5 is what I see, going 4-4 in the SEC again

Thats if he beats SC and Vandy. If he sharts the bed again against one or both of them, hes gone

 

[jbr82]

We posted a 9-4 record this year = 69.2%

Our 826–368–54 record all time = 68.3%

A string of seasons like the one we just endured would leave Butch outperforming slightly Tennessee's all time record . . . and yet it would probably get him fired fairly quickly.

This might seem unfair, but it is mostly because of the success of two coaches which we feel are the benchmark for Tennessee football:

Under General Neyland

173–31–12 = 80.1% (this includes an 83% conference win percentage and 8 conference titles)

Under Coach Fulmer

152 - 52 = 74.5% (74.2% in conference and 2 conference titles)

As Vol fans we tend to default to the successes under these two coaches as the norm, and not as extraordinary.

But what about other great Vol coaches? The stats for the four most noteworthy are also impressive:

Doug Dickey: 73.8% in 65 games (67.6% in conference)
Bill Battle: 72.3% in 83 games (54.9% in conference)
Johnny Majors: 64.5% in 186 games (58.5% in conference a 3 SEC titles)
Bowden Wyatt: 62.2% in 82 games (55.4% in conference and 1 title)

If we take the records of these six coaches over 836 games, then you get a 71.2% total and a 66.9% conference win percentage.

Since these guys could tie their opponents, and that is no longer possible, it is reasonable to allocate ties 50/50 to the wins and losses columns (and more than fair). That changes the numbers to what I believe is a reasonable expectation for winning percentages for an average Tennessee coach who holds the job for more than 4 years:

1) win 73% of all games,
2) and, most critically, 69% of SEC games.

Yes Butch has rebuilt this program to respectability, but he is 14-18 in SEC play to date. This year we actually took a step backwards from 5-3 to 4-4. That is simply not good enough at Tennessee. The percentages from the coaches who laid the bedrock of this program suggest that a 6-2 SEC campaign is just slightly above the average for a long term coach. 5-3 is 62.5% and 6-2 is 75%.

Our tradition is winning SEC games against traditional football powerhouses, not just beating up inferior FBS teams and B1G also rans in 2nd tier bowl games. There is no reason that a Tennessee coach who cannot post a 6-2 record in conference in 5 years time cannot be justifiably and fairly dismissed.

That is why, though I give him all the credit in the world based on where Dooley left us, next year could very well be the last for Butch Jones on Rocky Top.

Do Clemsons all time record. And Dabo record

 

[jakez4ut]

I fully expect that winning % will take a hit next year

7-5 is what I see, going 4-4 in the SEC again

Thats if he beats SC and Vandy. If he sharts the bed again against one or both of them, hes gone

as i hear more and more about the goings on about the AD hire, and the administration in general, i'm now even more inclined to believe that winning at an elite level is just not on the list of priorities.

so, while in merit, i agree on what should happen, i'm beginning to think CBJ has at least 2 more years, barring some epic meltdown type season.

we go 7-5 next year, another bowl....he'll be fine. better than that, and there's not going to be anyone up on the hill blink an eye.

 

[jbr82]

All the other coaches had games like that also. You left that out.

Ron Zook ( FL) went 16-8 in SEC and that wasn't good enough in 3 yrs

Mike Shula (Bammer) went 13-19 in 4 yrs

Both teams don't put up with mediocrity and that's why they are in ATL more

 

[99gator]

Ron Zook ( FL) went 16-8 in SEC and that wasn't good enough in 3 yrs

Mike Shula (Bammer) went 13-19 in 4 yrs

Both teams don't put up with mediocrity and that's why they are in ATL more

You all keep holding on to this fiction.

How can you guys argue that Tennessee settles for mediocrity?

You fired an alumnus who won a national championship. How many schools have done that?

You fired Dooley after three years. Who fires a coach for on-field only reasons after two years? No one would have fired him any sooner

Is there anyone really arguing that Butch should have been fired after this season?

Florida held onto Will Muschamp after he went 4-8 in year 3.

 

[onevol74]

Ron Zook ( FL) went 16-8 in SEC and that wasn't good enough in 3 yrs

Mike Shula (Bammer) went 13-19 in 4 yrs

Both teams don't put up with mediocrity and that's why they are in ATL more

That is the difference between winners and losers in this conference.

We should be thankful that we are not in the SEC West. Butch is 0-8 on that side of the conference. And next year he will be 0-10.

 

[jbr82]

You all keep holding on to this fiction.

How can you guys argue that Tennessee settles for mediocrity?

You fired an alumnus who won a national championship. How many schools have done that?

You fired Dooley after three years. Who fires a coach for on-field only reasons after two years?

Is there anyone really arguing that Butch should have been fired after this season?

Florida held onto Will Muschamp after he went 4-8 in year 3.

Fulmer went 17-15 his last 4 yrs SEC play. The problem was the string of hires after fulmer. Fulmer was strugglin with UGA...losing to Urban and Saban.

Im not sure what you're calling fiction.

If their was a chance for coach upgrade....then I would have been all for it. I don't see anything to believe CBJ can make it to Jimbo or even Dabos level.

 

[jakez4ut]

You all keep holding on to this fiction.

How can you guys argue that Tennessee settles for mediocrity?

You fired an alumnus who won a national championship. How many schools have done that?

You fired Dooley after three years. Who fires a coach for on-field only reasons after two years? No one would have fired him any sooner

Is there anyone really arguing that Butch should have been fired after this season?

Florida held onto Will Muschamp after he went 4-8 in year 3.

yeah, fulmer didn't pull a spurrier and quit with gas in the tank. he ran it to empty.

 

[onevol74]

You all keep holding on to this fiction.

How can you guys argue that Tennessee settles for mediocrity?

You fired an alumnus who won a national championship. How many schools have done that?

You fired Dooley after three years. Who fires a coach for on-field only reasons after two years? No one would have fired him any sooner

Is there anyone really arguing that Butch should have been fired after this season?

Florida held onto Will Muschamp after he went 4-8 in year 3.

Using the same logic that got Zook fired after 3 years.

 

[volfan102455]

I wasn't referring to the OP, only your list of times that those coaches rarely did better or as well as 6-2 in any one season. With the fewer number of conference games, they could never do that with two loses... only zero or one. A 5-2 or 4-2 would be just as successful as a 6-2 if there are only 2 good teams on the schedule with every other team being down. Also, every one of those coaches had Alabama on the schedule and most of the time another top conference program with Auburn.

Then you are not aligning to the numbers the OP put forth -

- Winning 6 out of 8 = 75% winning percentage
- Winning 5 out of 7 = 71%
- Winning 4 out of 6 = 67%

The OP used raw percentages to come up with the 6-2 record. That did not factor in who the losses were to, who the victories were over, etc. He did not factor in the "less that stellar" opponents either. He also did not factor in when 2 losses were too many to win the SEC and when they were enough.

It was purely built on an average.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Then you are not aligning to the numbers the OP put forth -

- Winning 6 out of 8 = 75% winning percentage
- Winning 5 out of 7 = 71%
- Winning 4 out of 6 = 67%

The OP used raw percentages to come up with the 6-2 record. That did not factor in who the losses were to, who the victories were over, etc. He did not factor in the "less that stellar" opponents either. He also did not factor in when 2 losses were too many to win the SEC and when they were enough.

It was purely built on an average.

I'm only pointing out that the list of times that those coaches met or exceeded 6-2 in the conference by season means next to nothing.

 

[TN_Transplant]

Numbers are an interesting thing. Using 6-2 which is winning 75% of the games:

- Fulmer would have met / exceeded that 11 out of 17 years (64.7%)
- Majors 3 out of 16 years (18.8%)
- Neyland 15 out of 21 years (71.4%)
- Battle 1 out of 7 years (14.3%)
- Wyatt 1 out of 8 years (12.5%)

And how many does Butch have?

 

[Evet Vols]

The SEC mark of 14-18 is most telling, and concerning to me. That is where it counts for most of us, and it is where we are most lacking currently.

How many of those losses was TN actually favored?

6 of losses were in 2013 and TN was just bad. In 2014 - expected losses to Ga, Fl, Bama, Miss and Missouri. In 2015 - lost SEC games Florida away ( lost by 1), Arkansas (lost by 4) and Bama. 2016 - Bama and A&M expected losses by most and of course the Vandy and SC losses.

Of those 18 SEC losses - only 2 were really unexpected and these were on the road this year. In one game the starting Running Back quit during the middle of the game.

I think people just need to realize it takes time. Our starting DTs and starting MLB were sophomores this year and all got injured. Be patient and support the team.

 

[Titan&Volfan4life]

Fact is that the only reality the UT Admin will consider is simple...

1...Is the footVol Team earning enough $$$ as total profit?

2...Is that total $$$$ profit likely to continue with buTch ball?

3...Is the HUGE buyout $$$ low enough yet to even think about replacing buTch?

4...Are the BIG $$$ donors pissed off enough yet to pay the buyout $$$?

5...Is there really a viable coach that's also a good recruiter that UT can hire at a small enough starting $$$$ on his 1st contract that we're certain we can get to come to Tennessee?

It's 100% totally ALL about the $$$ and profit margin!!!

The UT Admin does NOT care about building a Elite, top Winning footVol program at all.

The ONLY thing the UT Admin really cares about is trying to turn UT into a Southern version of Harvard, Yale and Princeton and that's NEVER going to happen no matter how many Liberals take over the Admin and Board of Trustees.

We are Tennessee, home of Hillbillies and Rednecks and we'll never abandon our Proud Southern roots and that starts right at the family level.

Admin and the BoT needs to learn that we Vols fans want and should be demanding excellence and Elite winning Teams in all UT sports!

I'm sick and tired of the UT Admin screwing up our sports programs consistently!

It needs to end NOW!!!

VFL...GBO!!!

 

[Rifleman]

Another way to look at this is recent opponent composite talent levels, which 247 Sports does a good job of tracking now.

2016: Butch did beat 1 SEC team with more talent: Georgia. Two losses were to teams with less talent, USC and Vandy. That's a -1 coaching grade.

2015: Beat more talented Georgia/lost to a less talented Arkansas. That's a push.

Next year, however, we will likely play 4 more talented teams: Bama, UGA, LSU, and Florida.

This suggests very clear scenarios for evaluating a coach in his 5th year:

1) If Butch goes -1 for the second straight year, netting a 3-5 conference record, his time is done and he is exposed as a subpar coach.

2) If Butch goes 4-4, we are just treading water and he will be replaced but have a good chance to get a job at a Purdue-level school.

3) If we are healthier, maybe we get a +1 and go 5-3. At this point, circumstances will need to be examined carefully (especially the quality of coaches who might be interested in taking over) to see what the best decision would be.

4) Butch goes 6-2. That's +2. All you can reasonably ask for against tough competition and he should be retained with some optimism going forward.

5) 7-1 or 8-0. Butch gets a raise and an extension and awards and recruits and buzz going forward. Obviously, we all hope this is the outcome.

 

[sjt18]

And just take a look at all those juggernaut coaches Fulmer had to go against in the SEC....Spurrier and..........Oh yeah that's it! The conference is a mile ahead from where it was when Fulmer was coach....at least Neyland had Bryant, Vaught, Dodd, and Frank Thomas....I'm sure I'm missing some more but he had a gauntlet of guys he had to go through.....Jones is in the same boat I'm just glad we're back to being ranked and talked about nationally again! The titles are on the way!

Muschamp is a "juggernaut" coach? Jones is now 0-3 vs that "juggernaut". Is Mason?

ANY argument you want to make of this kind will ALWAYS be negated by Jones habit of losing games he should win... until he stops doing it.

 

[sjt18]

You all keep holding on to this fiction.

How can you guys argue that Tennessee settles for mediocrity?

You fired an alumnus who won a national championship. How many schools have done that?

You fired Dooley after three years. Who fires a coach for on-field only reasons after two years? No one would have fired him any sooner

Is there anyone really arguing that Butch should have been fired after this season?

Florida held onto Will Muschamp after he went 4-8 in year 3.

For my part, it is more of an answer to those who are excusing Jones and effectively promoting acceptance of mediocrity from him rather than some review of history.

However, there were quite a few who thought Fulmer had let the program decline so badly leading up to 2005 that he should have been fired then. There was more to his case than just a couple of bad seasons.

 

[onevol74]

Fact is that the only reality the UT Admin will consider is simple...

1...Is the footVol Team earning enough $$$ as total profit?

2...Is that total $$$$ profit likely to continue with buTch ball?

3...Is the HUGE buyout $$$ low enough yet to even think about replacing buTch?

4...Are the BIG $$$ donors pissed off enough yet to pay the buyout $$$?

5...Is there really a viable coach that's also a good recruiter that UT can hire at a small enough starting $$$$ on his 1st contract that we're certain we can get to come to Tennessee?

It's 100% totally ALL about the $$$ and profit margin!!!

The UT Admin does NOT care about building a Elite, top Winning footVol program at all.

The ONLY thing the UT Admin really cares about is trying to turn UT into a Southern version of Harvard, Yale and Princeton and that's NEVER going to happen no matter how many Liberals take over the Admin and Board of Trustees.

We are Tennessee, home of Hillbillies and Rednecks and we'll never abandon our Proud Southern roots and that starts right at the family level.

Admin and the BoT needs to learn that we Vols fans want and should be demanding excellence and Elite winning Teams in all UT sports!

I'm sick and tired of the UT Admin screwing up our sports programs consistently!

It needs to end NOW!!!

VFL...GBO!!!

Post of the year!!!!

 

[CountVolcula]

Fact is that the only reality the UT Admin will consider is simple...

1...Is the footVol Team earning enough $$$ as total profit?

2...Is that total $$$$ profit likely to continue with buTch ball?

3...Is the HUGE buyout $$$ low enough yet to even think about replacing buTch?

4...Are the BIG $$$ donors pissed off enough yet to pay the buyout $$$?

5...Is there really a viable coach that's also a good recruiter that UT can hire at a small enough starting $$$$ on his 1st contract that we're certain we can get to come to Tennessee?

It's 100% totally ALL about the $$$ and profit margin!!!

The UT Admin does NOT care about building a Elite, top Winning footVol program at all.

The ONLY thing the UT Admin really cares about is trying to turn UT into a Southern version of Harvard, Yale and Princeton and that's NEVER going to happen no matter how many Liberals take over the Admin and Board of Trustees.

We are Tennessee, home of Hillbillies and Rednecks and we'll never abandon our Proud Southern roots and that starts right at the family level.

Admin and the BoT needs to learn that we Vols fans want and should be demanding excellence and Elite winning Teams in all UT sports!

I'm sick and tired of the UT Admin screwing up our sports programs consistently!

It needs to end NOW!!!

VFL...GBO!!!

:rock:

 

[JonGrudensAgent]

as i hear more and more about the goings on about the AD hire, and the administration in general, i'm now even more inclined to believe that winning at an elite level is just not on the list of priorities.

so, while in merit, i agree on what should happen, i'm beginning to think CBJ has at least 2 more years, barring some epic meltdown type season.

we go 7-5 next year, another bowl....he'll be fine. better than that, and there's not going to be anyone up on the hill blink an eye.

AIS( as--s in seats) is the only stat that matters to the powers that be in Knoxville.

Sure, DiPietro did that idiotic dancing video a few years ago when they made the bowl, but I think that was due to knowing it would get the masses motivated again to buy tickets and get them back into the top 5 or so in attendance. They had slipped to around 8th or 9th under Dooley.

If anyone really cared what was going on with the UTAD, Hart would have probably been fired at the onset of that Title IX investigation and the Tyndall debacle.

At the least, someone should have taken the reigns of this new AD hire MONTHS ago.

UTAD continues to be a rudderless ship though.

 

[99gator]

For my part, it is more of an answer to those who are excusing Jones and effectively promoting acceptance of mediocrity from him rather than some review of history.

However, there were quite a few who thought Fulmer had let the program decline so badly leading up to 2005 that he should have been fired then. There was more to his case than just a couple of bad seasons.

No one anywhere would have fired Fulmer in 2005.

Hindsight is great. But at the time, he had the highest winning percentage or close in college football. They just won 10 or so games in 2004 and went to Atlanta. He averaged 10 wins or close to that a year.

No one would have fired a coach with one bad season. Particularly one with a national title and an alumnus.

He was 128-37 at the end of 2005.

I think you all really miss the mark if you think Florida, FSU, notre dame, usc, michigan, etc, would have fired him under thoae exact circumstances. No way

 

[TrueOrange]

All the other coaches had games like that also. You left that out.

Actually, the others wouldn't have been played an FCS team (Western Carolina, Tennessee Tech) each year. The NCAA didn't start allowing that as a yearly, 12th game in this level of college football until 2006.