A Fair Benchmark for Butch: 6-2 in SEC or: Why the Negas have a Point

#76
#76
TNnative said:
Well, we can bore ourselves silly shoving statistics down each others throats.
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The wins and losses and especially over time are the ONLY meaningful statistics. So you can't just handwave and act as if it doesn't matter or suggest that Jones is failing... simply because you don't want to admit that he's failing.

Sooner or later, you have to break down what went wrong, and the causes. And the big problems seem to lead right to firing the S&C coach.
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Which was at least a year too late. The guy wasn't getting the job done and his understudy did no better. The HC should have seen this LONG before it resulted in losses and injuries.

We all expected our lines to be dominate this season, but they got banged up and pushed around. And though not all of the injuries can be blamed on it, the high number of them does not make that loss of a staff member look good at all. In fact, I find it a really dumb move.
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The only think "dumb" about getting rid of a guy who wasn't effectively doing his job... is that Jones waited to long to do it then replaced him with someone who did things pretty much the same way.

So, though I don't agree with the line of thought of the nega crowd, I am less enthralled with Butch for that nonsense. I am not calling for his job, and I still support him. But that support is worn thinner.
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Ultimately whether Lawson was as great as you apparently think he was or was a significant part of the problems as I think he was.... Jones is the guy who made the decisions. It is 100% his responsibility... which makes the "injury" excuse untenable. Injuries are a 3 year problem... not a one year problem.

When you have time, go back and look at the numbers of injuries UT had in '14 and '15. Many of them occurred in August and are maybe forgotten... but they still occurred.

This is another reason you don't bring a mid-major staff to coach in the SEC.
 
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#78
#78
Tin Man said:
12 * 0.712 = 8.544
8 * 0.669 = 5.352

So, essentially, the norm is alternating years of 8-4 & 9-3 overall and 5-3 & 6-2 in conference. If CBJ can establish this pattern during the remaining 4 years of his contract, then he would be meeting expectations per the performance of six prior coaches over 836 games. Such in-conference results would propel the Vols into the SECCG during those years when 6 wins are over division opponents or tie-breakers favor Tennessee.

Of course over achieving years (10-2, 11-1, 12-0; 7-1, 8-0) would thrill Big Orange fans. One would hope a rare aberrant year of under achievement (e.g. 7-5/4-4) would be forgiven if a pattern of decline were absent and performance returned to norm the following year.

Key to grasping the above is to separate hopes & desires from expectations. Though we all hope for and desire 10-2/6-2 or better, if we expect 8-4/5-3 & 9-3/6-2, we are attuned with the norm established over 836 games.
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So are you saying we should not expect improvement over the past average? If so, I disagree completely.
 
#79
#79
BeardedVol said:
So we should keep a coach who has a proven record of mediocrity in the SEC, for in the hopes that he will somehow overachieve, even though he just had a season with the most talented team in his career, and still couldn't achieve more than .500 in conference play?

Man, that's a stretch even for a white knight.
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That's where matters of what is practical and what is not come in. I agree that there, unfortunately, is not a lot of reason to be optimistic about Butch ultimately getting us to where we want to be.

However, despite that, do you fire him now? What are the financial implications of that for the University? Are you sure you can find somebody that is better if you did fire him? I have doubts that he is "the guy," but the writing isn't quite fully on the wall yet.

It's just easier to fire him after another underachieving next year because 1) it will be financially feasible and 2) the writing would really be on the wall at that point he isn't the guy, and it becomes more of a liability to keep him rather than let him go (attendance suffers, recruiting suffers, assistants leave, etc).
 
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#80
#80
CountVolcula said:
When I evaluate an employee, I can only evaluate them on what they have done not what I think they can do
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That's not particularly true. If you have to reduce staff and have two equally productive employees but one has more potential for growth/improvement than the other... you have to evaluate what you think they can do.

But with Jones as anyone else, past patterns and actions are great predictors of future results. If you look at the numbers behind the numbers at Cincy then what he's done at UT... there is very little reason to believe he will become a championship caliber coach at UT.
 
#81
#81
volfan102455 said:
Numbers are an interesting thing. Using 6-2 which is winning 75% of the games:

- Fulmer would have met / exceeded that 11 out of 17 years (64.7%)
- Majors 3 out of 16 years (18.8%)
- Neyland 15 out of 21 years (71.4%)
- Battle 1 out of 7 years (14.3%)
- Wyatt 1 out of 8 years (12.5%)
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SIAP, but the flaw with meeting or exceeding 75% is that those examples weren't in an 8 game season. In a 7 game season only 6-1 or 7-0 game meet or exceed 6-2. Also with any fewer # of games played, it requires zero or only one loss in order to meet or exceed 6-2.
 
#82
#82
BigSteve09 said:
I don't see what's so hard to understand. Just make it to Atlanta when your road is easiest. No one else had an easier path to Atlanta in the East division than Tennessee. The road wasn't the problem, it was the vehicle. When your job is to build and navigate that vehicle, you should catch some heat when a piston flies through the hood and you end up in the bushes.
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Bravo
 
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#83
#83
05_never_again said:
That's where matters of what is practical and what is not come in. I agree that there, unfortunately, is not a lot of reason to be optimistic about Butch ultimately getting us to where we want to be.

However, despite that, do you fire him now? What are the financial implications of that for the University? Are you sure you can find somebody that is better if you did fire him? I have doubts that he is "the guy," but the writing isn't quite fully on the wall yet.

It's just easier to fire him after another underachieving next year because 1) it will be financially feasible and 2) the writing would really be on the wall at that point he isn't the guy, and it becomes more of a liability to keep him rather than let him go (attendance suffers, recruiting suffers, assistants leave, etc).
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Not realistic to fire him now both because of the financial implications and the other issues within the AD.

It IS however VERY reasonable to NOT give him a raise or extension and then fire him next fall if he fails to improve.
 
#84
#84
Doesn't a loss to Bama count when trying to win the East? Nobody in the East plays them every year but we had it easy? Yeah I totally don't agree with that. We start out every year with an automatic loss.
 
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#85
#85
sjt18 said:
Not realistic to fire him now both because of the financial implications and the other issues within the AD.

It IS however VERY reasonable to NOT give him a raise or extension and then fire him next fall if he fails to improve.
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I agree, we missed the boat this year, but the mindset of keeping him because we can't afford the buyout is preposterous, if there is any concept of Tennessee being a quality football program that wins championships again.

Besides, you don't wait for the timing belt on your car to break before you change it, even though it's going to cost you up front, the price of not is much higher.
 
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#87
#87
CountVolcula said:
When I evaluate an employee, I can only evaluate them on what they have done not what I think they can do
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Then you loose a lot of money firing employees and hiring and training new ones! You have to do BOTH! Being good at grading potential in the business world will make you more profit exponentially!!!!
 
#88
#88
QuickSmurf said:
Doesn't a loss to Bama count when trying to win the East? Nobody in the East plays then every year but we had it easy? Yeah I totally don't agree with that.
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YUP, AND one of the main reasons why it won't be easy to get a top flight known coach to come to UT is BAMA with SABAN every year and another tough west opponent EVERY YEAR.
 
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#90
#90
I think it's all based on schedule.

I'm in the same boat as a member of the SEC East.

Everyone has 3 cupcakes and 1 legit squad OOC.

In conference.....We all have Vandy, SC, Missouri, and Kentucky.

No head coach at Florida, Georgia, or Tennessee is being paid to beat Missouri, Kentucky, SC, Vanderbilt or the three cupcakes. We all feel arrogantly enough about our programs that barring the occasional (and by that I mean extremely rare) loss to one of those squads.......the schedule gives you 7 wins before the season even starts.

The other games are the legit OOC team, Georgia, Florida/Tennessee, Permanent west opponent and rotating west opponent. These are the games where the coach earns their money and gets fired or gets a contract extension.

And even then.....the rotating west team may not be that good or that good that particular year. Georgia, Florida and Tennessee have not been world beaters recently. Some of those games are also home games.

Basically in a year where you go 3-2....you have a 10-2 season before the bowl. If you go 2-3, you have a 9-3 season before the bowl.

Now, I have the last couple of seasons as proof. Florida won 10 games in 2015 and won 9 games in 2016 (with a cupcake game cancelled) and no one would argue that they are all that good.

So, no, I don't think fans are being ridiculous.
 
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#91
#91
'Boro-vol said:
The SEC mark of 14-18 is most telling, and concerning to me. That is where it counts for most of us, and it is where we are most lacking currently.
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I agree with this. The Achilles heel of CBJ's career on The Hill is that stat. He took steps forward taking down UF & UGA the same season, but then beshat the bed late in the season with those two losses that should not ever be named. He cannot stay if he cannot beat Muschamp next year that is a must win if there ever was one for him.
 
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#92
#92
And just take a look at all those juggernaut coaches Fulmer had to go against in the SEC....Spurrier and..........Oh yeah that's it! The conference is a mile ahead from where it was when Fulmer was coach....at least Neyland had Bryant, Vaught, Dodd, and Frank Thomas....I'm sure I'm missing some more but he had a gauntlet of guys he had to go through.....Jones is in the same boat I'm just glad we're back to being ranked and talked about nationally again! The titles are on the way!
 
#93
#93
Vols4life said:
And just take a look at all those juggernaut coaches Fulmer had to go against in the SEC....Spurrier and..........Oh yeah that's it! The conference is a mile ahead from where it was when Fulmer was coach....at least Neyland had Bryant, Vaught, Dodd, and Frank Thomas....I'm sure I'm missing some more but he had a gauntlet of guys he had to go through.....Jones is in the same boat I'm just glad we're back to being ranked and talked about nationally again! The titles are on the way!
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Jones is in the same boat?
 
#94
#94
Thunder Good-Oil said:
SIAP, but the flaw with meeting or exceeding 75% is that those examples weren't in an 8 game season. In a 7 game season only 6-1 or 7-0 game meet or exceed 6-2. Also with any fewer # of games played, it requires zero or only one loss in order to meet or exceed 6-2.
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It can't be both ways. The OP used numbers across all years and factored that into the percentages. So the winning percentage average is the winning percentage average.

The OP did not use real statistics and look at the median and use bell curves to account for the different number of games over the years.

I did the same thing - looked for the percentage of wins based on the number of games played. Some of those coaches were not a good in the SEC as some of you think they were.
 
#95
#95
volfan102455 said:
That wasn't the question - the question was if the research had been done and there was nothing to complain about then more than likely "no thread is started".
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Who here is complaining? I just see people looking at stats in a different way, no biggie. Not like there are winning percentages that everyone can brag about.
 
#97
#97
Forgot to crunch the numbers for everyone, but 10-4 is a 71% winning percentage.

9-4 is a 69% winning percentage.
 
#99
#99
volfan102455 said:
It can't be both ways. The OP used numbers across all years and factored that into the percentages. So the winning percentage average is the winning percentage average.

The OP did not use real statistics and look at the median and use bell curves to account for the different number of games over the years.

I did the same thing - looked for the percentage of wins based on the number of games played. Some of those coaches were not a good in the SEC as some of you think they were.
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I wasn't referring to the OP, only your list of times that those coaches rarely did better or as well as 6-2 in any one season. With the fewer number of conference games, they could never do that with two loses... only zero or one. A 5-2 or 4-2 would be just as successful as a 6-2 if there are only 2 good teams on the schedule with every other team being down. Also, every one of those coaches had Alabama on the schedule and most of the time another top conference program with Auburn.
 
#100
#100
CountVolcula said:
Taking out the give me wins such as your Western Carolinas and Tennessee Techs, this would be Jones' records while at UT

2013- 2-7
2014- 4-6
2015- 6-4
2016- 6-4

Overall- 18-21 (.461 winning %)
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Great point. The extra win, with the 12th game, skews the %.

BP4Prez said:
This is just stupid. Every team in the country has these games.
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Yes, but this was a comparison to UT coaches. Fulmer, with the exception of a couple of seasons, didn't have a 12th game.
 
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