A Fair Benchmark for Butch: 6-2 in SEC or: Why the Negas have a Point

#51
#51
sjt18 said:
Usually "should have lost" games are balanced by "shouldn't have won" games.... That isn't the case with Jones.
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Yep. And as we were discussing in another thread, Fulmer gets the benefit of the doubt with those "should have lost" games because of the track record of success he had before that. Butch has no such track record.
 
#52
#52
volfan102455 said:
All teams have "give me" wins. The "give me" wins inflate the win / loss percentage.

And the 6-2 mark is even suspect. So if a coach has the following SEC marks he is meeting the average - but I can guarantee you all would be saying FIRE the coach with the 0-8 record.

8-0
8-0
8-0
6-2
0-8
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A coach who posted those first 4 seasons would be pretty unlikely to post the last one... just like a coach who posted 4-4 with the second most talented team in the SEC is unlikely to go 6-2 with less talent.

But if a coach DID do that... you could treat that one year as an anomaly. There's no way you fire that coach unless he continued to struggle.

So your "guarantee" is absolutely invalid.
 
#53
#53
volfan102455 said:
I have no doubt that if I had the time and desire I could spin numbers in many different ways.

The only coaches that meet the criteria in the original email are Neyland and Fulmer. Neyland was consistent throughout his career - which is why he is regarded as the best coach of all time at UT. Fulmer was not as consistent but had years that helped his percentage.

It needs to be September 2017 tomorrow!
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True. One can definitely spin numbers in any way they see fit.

I think the crux of what the OP's data gets to is this question: do we believe that Jones has it in him to post those 10 and 11 win seasons to boost the overall numbers and percentages?

I frankly haven't see anything in his toolbox to suggest that he can. 10 years is a fair period to judge what a coach can and can't do IMO and he has only 1 11 win season under his belt.
 
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#54
#54
volfan102455 said:
I have no doubt that if I had the time and desire I could spin numbers in many different ways.

The only coaches that meet the criteria in the original email are Neyland and Fulmer. Neyland was consistent throughout his career - which is why he is regarded as the best coach of all time at UT. Fulmer was not as consistent but had years that helped his percentage.

It needs to be September 2017 tomorrow!
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So your point is that you are willing to accept average or worse coaches? Your standard for survival isn't Neyland/Fulmer type success?

I guess some of us just have higher goals than that.
 
#55
#55
JonGrudensAgent said:
True. One can definitely spin numbers in any way they see fit.

I think the crux of what the OP's data gets to is this question: do we believe that Jones has it in him to post those 10 and 11 win seasons to boost the overall numbers and percentages?

I frankly haven't see anything in his toolbox to suggest that he can. 10 years is a fair period to judge what a coach can and can't do IMO and he has only 1 11 win season under his belt.
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Any objective person has to say "no" at this point, as much as they want to say "yes" as a fan. He has done or shown nothing in 4 years that indicates he has that in him. Butch had 10 regular season wins sitting on a platter this year and found a way to screw it up, with not just one but two losses to inferior division opponents that only made it to .500 in the regular season because they beat us.

I'd love to be proven wrong next year, but he's going to have to do it with a team inferior to this year's (on paper) and against a division/conference that is almost certainly going to be better. I have my doubts.

I know there is a tendency some have to go easy on him because he has successfully pulled the car out of the big ditch Kiffin/Dooley drove it into and has it running pretty good again, but there is no factual way to spin this season as anything other than a disappointing underachievement.
 
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#56
#56
05_never_again said:
Any objective person has to say "no" at this point, as much as they want to say "yes" as a fan. He has done or shown nothing in 4 years that indicates he has that in him. Butch had 10 regular season wins sitting on a platter this year and found a way to screw it up, with not just one but two losses to inferior division opponents that only made it to .500 in the regular season because they beat us.

I'd love to be proven wrong next year, but he's going to have to do it with a team inferior to this year's (on paper) and against a division/conference that is almost certainly going to be better. I have my doubts.

I know there is a tendency some have to go easy on him because he has successfully pulled the car out of the big ditch Kiffin/Dooley drove it into and has it running pretty good again, but there is no factual way to spin this season as anything other than a disappointing underachievement.
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Agree on all points. I'd be fine being proven wrong by Jones and the Vols hitting 10 or 11 wins next season.

The other thing with Jones that is sticking with a lot of fans, myself included, is he has "found a way to screw up" games every season he has been here.

At some point, a coach is what his record says he is.
 
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#57
#57
JonGrudensAgent said:
Agree on all points. I'd be fine being proven wrong by Jones and the Vols hitting 10 or 11 wins next season.

The other thing with Jones that is sticking with a lot of fans, myself included, is he has "found a way to screw up" games every season he has been here.

At some point, a coach is what his record says he is.
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Yep. And that aspect of his resume got worse this year over last year, because instead of screwing up games against good teams by blowing leads like he did last year, he screwed up games where we were favored by a couple scores and generally got outplayed in every facet of the game.

When you combine that with the fact that he had basically the same team this year as he had last year, it is a really bad look.
 
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#58
#58
'Boro-vol said:
The SEC mark of 14-18 is most telling, and concerning to me. That is where it counts for most of us, and it is where we are most lacking currently.
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Well, we can bore ourselves silly shoving statistics down each others throats.

Sooner or later, you have to break down what went wrong, and the causes. And the big problems seem to lead right to firing the S&C coach. We all expected our lines to be dominate this season, but they got banged up and pushed around. And though not all of the injuries can be blamed on it, the high number of them does not make that loss of a staff member look good at all. In fact, I find it a really dumb move.

So, though I don't agree with the line of thought of the nega crowd, I am less enthralled with Butch for that nonsense. I am not calling for his job, and I still support him. But that support is worn thinner.
 
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#59
#59
This win percentage stat that a lot of people on here like to throw around would be fine to point out during a season like last year, or even next year. Long term expectations... 6-6, 7-5, 8-4 season are ok when you're countering those with 10-2 or better seasons.

When you're the only team in your division not starting a new coaching staff or quarterback, you should win the division. When you return as many starters as Tennessee did in 2016, you should win the division. When you have a bye week to consider that all that stands between you and winning the division is beating South Carolina, then you should win the division.

When you end the season with "Aw shucks, we lost to Vanderbilt... but it's ok, we only win 68% of our games anyway" then that's a very disappointing, bordering on depressing season.

A 68% success rate during the entirety of Tennessee football doesn't tell the full story. It's the same reason that (reasonable) people on here weren't saying "WE'RE A 68% WINNING PERCENTAGE TEAM WHAT THE HELL IS GOING ON" when the Jones Era was getting ramped up. There are situations and circumstances where a stat like 68% gets tossed out of the window. This year was one of those years. In a vacuum, with the circumstances that Tennessee had, 10-2 and Atlanta were reasonable and objectively sound expectations by fans and outside evaluators alike.
 
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#60
#60
For the elites that actually make the decisions, there is more to it than Wins and losses! Example if we go 5-3 and Don't win the east but beat AL OR LSU and or UGA or FL, NO WAY CBJ gets fired!!! ESPECIALLY if he beats BAMA! The arguments have been made everywhere on here that CBJ should be fired because of games he should have won, but guess what, he has been retained because of games he shouldn't have won. Just sayin!
 
#61
#61
Isn't it interesting that Butch apologists like ReaderVol and others are notably absent in threads like this that discuss actual facts, numbers and research.
 
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#62
#62
If we take the records of these six coaches over 836 games, then you get a 71.2% total and a 66.9% conference win percentage.
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12 * 0.712 = 8.544
8 * 0.669 = 5.352

So, essentially, the norm is alternating years of 8-4 & 9-3 overall and 5-3 & 6-2 in conference. If CBJ can establish this pattern during the remaining 4 years of his contract, then he would be meeting expectations per the performance of six prior coaches over 836 games. Such in-conference results would propel the Vols into the SECCG during those years when 6 wins are over division opponents or tie-breakers favor Tennessee.

Of course over achieving years (10-2, 11-1, 12-0; 7-1, 8-0) would thrill Big Orange fans. One would hope a rare aberrant year of under achievement (e.g. 7-5/4-4) would be forgiven if a pattern of decline were absent and performance returned to norm the following year.

Key to grasping the above is to separate hopes & desires from expectations. Though we all hope for and desire 10-2/6-2 or better, if we expect 8-4/5-3 & 9-3/6-2, we are attuned with the norm established over 836 games.
 
#63
#63
I don't see what's so hard to understand. Just make it to Atlanta when your road is easiest. No one else had an easier path to Atlanta in the East division than Tennessee. The road wasn't the problem, it was the vehicle. When your job is to build and navigate that vehicle, you should catch some heat when a piston flies through the hood and you end up in the bushes.
 
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#65
#65
bigsteve09 said:
i don't see what's so hard to understand. Just make it to atlanta when your road is easiest. No one else had an easier path to atlanta in the east division than tennessee. The road wasn't the problem, it was the vehicle. When your job is to build and navigate that vehicle, you should catch some heat when a piston flies through the hood and you end up in the bushes.
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☝
 
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#68
#68
'Boro-vol said:
The SEC mark of 14-18 is most telling, and concerning to me. That is where it counts for most of us, and it is where we are most lacking currently.
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Fair enough to look at numbers, but baffles me, with how much rebuilding Jones had to do, that he gets NO concession for first two years...I know...we ARE TENNESEE, and should win it all every year.

I'm all for looking at judging Jones, but being fair, Fulmer didn't have to rebuild after Majors struggled for years to rebuild, and had a running head start. Judging the past two years IS fair, regardless of how you feel he's done.
 
#69
#69
fade route said:
Isn't it interesting that Butch apologists like ReaderVol and others are notably absent in threads like this that discuss actual facts, numbers and research.
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Keep posting stuff like this and a virtual bat signal will draw them here....then you'll get your typical "you suck, you're not a real fan, you don't know football, go pull for Florida"......you might even get a "Dooley only won 9 games his last 2 seasons, what do you expect at Tennessee, at least Jones is doing better, he just needs time to turn it around......"
 
#70
#70
Of course, as a fan, I hope the Vols go 15-0 every year. I've been watching the gridiron Vols play for more than 40 years. Tennessee has had 7 coaches during that time. My expectations are tempered by reality. When Hamilton was announced as Director of Men's Athletics, a deep sense of foreboding o'ertook me. The doom was made manifest, and Tennessee is still digging out from under it.

Pragmatically, Tennessee cannot afford to absorb contract buy-outs, changing coaching staffs until we find the ones who can keep the Vols at 10-2 or better year after year. So, as a fan, I pray that Hart is replaced by a visionary AD, one who will foment competitive dominance in all of men's and women's athletics. As for CBJ, he's with us for 2-4 years by reasonable reckoning. May he build teams who overachieve. After all, I am a Tennessee fan. Fifteen and Oh, baby! GBO!
 
#71
#71
njvols said:
Fair enough to look at numbers, but baffles me, with how much rebuilding Jones had to do, that he gets NO concession for first two years...I know...we ARE TENNESEE, and should win it all every year.

I'm all for looking at judging Jones, but being fair, Fulmer didn't have to rebuild after Majors struggled for years to rebuild, and had a running head start. Judging the past two years IS fair, regardless of how you feel he's done.
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Okay...He's 9-7 over the last two years in the SEC. He's 4-4 this year.

Quick math shows that is not a positive trend.
 
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#72
#72
njvols said:
Fair enough to look at numbers, but baffles me, with how much rebuilding Jones had to do, that he gets NO concession for first two years...I know...we ARE TENNESEE, and should win it all every year.

I'm all for looking at judging Jones, but being fair, Fulmer didn't have to rebuild after Majors struggled for years to rebuild, and had a running head start. Judging the past two years IS fair, regardless of how you feel he's done.
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Butch got an extended honeymoon here, really no expectations for anything his first two years. He's been given credit over and over again for the rebuilding job he's done cleaning up a mess, even by those who have expressed the most doubt about him. It's really only been this year that fans have attempted to hold him to account given all the expectations and being the overwhelming pick to win a bad SECe.

As far as what Fulmer took over, remember that he was a big part in helping build up the program he took over from Majors.....first as OL coach (1980-88), but especially as OC (1988-92) when the program really took off and began sustaining consistent, outstanding records, something Majors was never able to do prior to Fulmer coordinating his offense.
 
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#73
#73
Rifleman said:
Under General Neyland

173–31–12 = 80.1% (this includes an 83% conference win percentage and 8 conference titles)

Under Coach Fulmer

152 - 52 = 74.5% (74.2% in conference and 2 conference titles)

As Vol fans we tend to default to the successes under these two coaches as the norm, and not as extraordinary.
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Considering Neyland and Fulmer combined coached 31.66% of all 120 seasons this is reasonable.

38 years of having a chance to win the ultimate prize makes a fanbase proud. There have been other great teams under other coaches, but none that had the fanbase believing on a regular basis (even if they were a nega vol under fulmer).
 
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#75
#75
Tin Man said:
Of course, as a fan, I hope the Vols go 15-0 every year. I've been watching the gridiron Vols play for more than 40 years. Tennessee has had 7 coaches during that time. My expectations are tempered by reality. When Hamilton was announced as Director of Men's Athletics, a deep sense of foreboding o'ertook me. The doom was made manifest, and Tennessee is still digging out from under it.

Pragmatically, Tennessee cannot afford to absorb contract buy-outs, changing coaching staffs until we find the ones who can keep the Vols at 10-2 or better year after year. So, as a fan, I pray that Hart is replaced by a visionary AD, one who will foment competitive dominance in all of men's and women's athletics. As for CBJ, he's with us for 2-4 years by reasonable reckoning. May he build teams who overachieve. After all, I am a Tennessee fan. Fifteen and Oh, baby! GBO!
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So we should keep a coach who has a proven record of mediocrity in the SEC, for in the hopes that he will somehow overachieve, even though he just had a season with the most talented team in his career, and still couldn't achieve more than .500 in conference play?

Man, that's a stretch even for a white knight.
 
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