A Fair Benchmark for Butch: 6-2 in SEC or: Why the Negas have a Point

#28
#28
volfan102455 said:
That wasn't the question - the question was if the research had been done and there was nothing to complain about then more than likely "no thread is started".
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If it wasn't the case, the research wouldn't have been necessary. We would all likely be celebrating a 10 win regular season, SEC Championship game, a New Years Day Bowl, many of us would likely be less hostile to one another, and the Knoxville economy would be enjoying a post football bounce.

But that's not the way the numbers crunched apparently.
 
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#29
#29
Good research. in today's environment how many years would the fans have given these foundation coaches you mentioned before being canned. I agree that CBJ needs to get it done in 2017, but I don't agree that he will be canned if he gets less than a 6-2 conference record. With a new AD, I feel like he has to go 7-5 or less to get fired. I feel 2018 will be his last year if he can't get us to at least the SECCG. JMO though.
 
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#30
#30
BP4Prez said:
I looked up one team. Take out Harbaughs "give me" wins and Michigan is 7-3.
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All teams have "give me" wins. The "give me" wins inflate the win / loss percentage.

And the 6-2 mark is even suspect. So if a coach has the following SEC marks he is meeting the average - but I can guarantee you all would be saying FIRE the coach with the 0-8 record.

8-0
8-0
8-0
6-2
0-8
 
#31
#31
volfan102455 said:
Numbers are an interesting thing. Using 6-2 which is winning 75% of the games:

- Fulmer would have met / exceeded that 11 out of 17 years (64.7%)
- Majors 3 out of 16 years (18.8%)
- Neyland 15 out of 21 years (71.4%)
- Battle 1 out of 7 years (14.3%)
- Wyatt 1 out of 8 years (12.5%)
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The 69 percent conference win mark, which is the record of these coaches combined, would require that you exceed expectations occasionally.

If Butch can't do better than 5-3 or 4-4 on his up years, that doesn't mean that he is the worst football coach in the world. It just means that he doesn't meet the standards and expectations set by a range of coaches who had some tenure here.

I don't think it would be fair to just judge Butch by what Neyland and Fulmer did, but the numbers I assembled encompass about 500 SEC football games.

There is no way to say that we are fine with less success than that without effectively lowering the bar for what we expect from Tennessee football.

Because of circumstances he inherited, Butch still has some runway here and I hope he succeeds.
 
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#33
#33
'Boro-vol said:
The SEC mark of 14-18 is most telling, and concerning to me. That is where it counts for most of us, and it is where we are most lacking currently.
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Totally agree. Even if you throw out the 2-6 2013 season as a "year zero" type of year, he's still only 12-12 in conference play. 9-7 over the last 2 years, when he's had fairly talented and experienced teams relative to the others in the conference. Not good enough in the SEC.
 
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#34
#34
wmcovol said:
What was the record the 4 yrs prior? Sure as hell wasn't 14 wins, I guarantee you....

Maybe 8 wins?
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11 wins in the 5 years before.
9 wins in the 4 years before.

Folks want to forget what the starting point was. Those 5 years were probably the worst in Tennessee history.
 
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#35
#35
volfan102455 said:
That wasn't the question - the question was if the research had been done and there was nothing to complain about then more than likely "no thread is started".
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It is humorous to me how often and how quickly accurate observations and plain facts are dismissed as "complaining" these days.
 
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#36
#36
'Boro-vol said:
The SEC mark of 14-18 is most telling, and concerning to me. That is where it counts for most of us, and it is where we are most lacking currently.
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And not to just totally confuse those that want to throw away the first 2 or 3 seasons for Jones here (due to Dooley) He's 9-7 over the last 2 seasons and 4-4 this year.
 
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#37
#37
Rifleman said:
It is humorous to me how often and how quickly accurate observations and plain facts are dismissed as "complaining" these days.
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Again....if the numbers weren't what they are, we are having a vastly different, and more friendly conversation. We'd be living in a different football reality, and the term "Nega" likely doesn't exist. We'd still be arguing about the finer points of the Smokey Grey uniform, and the relevance of the "Woo!" in Rocky Top.
 
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#42
#42
At least the Negas tend to do some digging first before arriving at their opinion. Sunshine pumpers appear to have it backward.
 
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#43
#43
volfan102455 said:
Numbers are an interesting thing. Using 6-2 which is winning 75% of the games:

- Fulmer would have met / exceeded that 11 out of 17 years (64.7%)
- Majors 3 out of 16 years (18.8%)
- Neyland 15 out of 21 years (71.4%)
- Battle 1 out of 7 years (14.3%)
- Wyatt 1 out of 8 years (12.5%)
- Kiffin 0 out of 1 year (0%)
- Dooley 0 out of 3 years (0%)
- Jones 0 out of 4 years (0%)
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Interesting indeed.
 
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#44
#44
volfan102455 said:
For example take out the two cupcakes in Fulmer's last year and he would be 3-9 that year.
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No, if you eliminate the 2 cupcakes he'd have been 3-7, not 3-9. You wouldn't take the wins away and count them as losses....that's not what Count did as he made his point.
 
#45
#45
JonGrudensAgent said:
If this research would have shown Jones in a more favorable light, would you be looking so hard to discredit it?
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I have no doubt that if I had the time and desire I could spin numbers in many different ways.

The only coaches that meet the criteria in the original email are Neyland and Fulmer. Neyland was consistent throughout his career - which is why he is regarded as the best coach of all time at UT. Fulmer was not as consistent but had years that helped his percentage.

It needs to be September 2017 tomorrow!
 
#46
#46
beneVOLence said:
Good research. in today's environment how many years would the fans have given these foundation coaches you mentioned before being canned. I agree that CBJ needs to get it done in 2017, but I don't agree that he will be canned if he gets less than a 6-2 conference record. With a new AD, I feel like he has to go 7-5 or less to get fired. I feel 2018 will be his last year if he can't get us to at least the SECCG. JMO though.
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He might skate through with another 5-3 year next year if some of these criteria are met:

1) one of our wins is over Bama
2) or the losses are Bama, LSU, Florida/Georgia
3) definitely no losses to Vandy or UK
4) win all non-conference games and bowl again
5) or if 5-3 is somehow good enough to get to Atlanta

Otherwise, the writing will be on the wall, recruiting will nosedive, assistants will flee the ship, and I really don't see the point of bringing him back for a 6th year when progress has plateaued.
 
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#47
#47
volfan102455 said:
Numbers are an interesting thing. Using 6-2 which is winning 75% of the games:

- Fulmer would have met / exceeded that 11 out of 17 years (64.7%)
- Majors 3 out of 16 years (18.8%)
- Neyland 15 out of 21 years (71.4%)
- Battle 1 out of 7 years (14.3%)
- Wyatt 1 out of 8 years (12.5%)
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IOW's, Jones needs to perform next year since he has not won 75% of his SEC games in his 4 years. He currently sits at 0 out of 4 years for 00.0%.
 
#48
#48
volfan102455 said:
For example take out the two cupcakes in Fulmer's last year and he would be 3-9 that year.
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Which is pretty much what sealed his fate.... you just made the case for why Jones should absolutely NOT get more than 2017 without improving significantly. If Jones goes 8-4 next fall then he will probably be 4-8 or 3-9 vs "cupcakes". If you fire a formerly successful coach for that kind of performance then you DEFINITELY fire someone who has NOT proven themselves.
 
#49
#49
wmcovol said:
SEC East is going to be pretty competitive next year.

Florida is Florida
Ga will be better
Sc will be better
Ky will be better
Mizz will be better probably
Vandy will be better even losing Cunningham (if they do)
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Mizzou probably won't be as good. They're a mess and are declining in talent.
 
#50
#50
footballref said:
Guess next we will be removing the games that "we should have lost" as well? Like UGA this year? Guess we'll remove Syracuse and Arkansas from Fulmer in 98.
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Usually "should have lost" games are balanced by "shouldn't have won" games.... That isn't the case with Jones.
 
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