Ukraine Protests

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#9,926
#9,926
volprof said:
International economic, military, political, and technological (four most indispensable factors) powerhouse. That, and the capacity to ensure that markets work in your favor.
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Obviously the time frame affects analysis. But even if you limit it to the near future (next two decades)

  • economic--Just about there, the world's largest market
  • military--Not there now, but in 20 years? this could change
  • political--Hasn't really tried to exert political power. Granted, it's not in its DNA, but I could see it doing more to weld economic power
  • technological--Lacking. Chinese are generally copiers, not innovators. But they aren't that far out of the game.

Superpower - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Alice Lyman Miller defines a superpower as "a country that has the capacity to project dominating power and influence anywhere in the world, and sometimes, in more than one region of the globe at a time, and so may plausibly attain the status of global hegemony."
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I could see this happening.

Potential superpowers - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
 
#9,927
#9,927
CSpindizzy said:
Window on Eurasia -- New Series: Moscow Using Russian Organizations to Destabilize Latvia, Riga Officials Say
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Instead, the 100 Moscow-backed organizations the Security Police have identified are those which “are carrying out actions hostile to official policy of the state, including those connected with Latvia’s status as an independent state” and such actions must be considered “interference in [Latvia’s] internal affairs”
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Such as?
 
#9,928
#9,928
Velo Vol said:
Obviously the time frame affects analysis. But even if you limit it to the near future (next two decades)

  • economic--Just about there, the world's largest market
  • military--Not there now, but in 20 years? this could change
  • political--Hasn't really tried to exert political power. Granted, it's not in its DNA, but I could see it doing more to weld economic power
  • technological--Lacking. Chinese are generally copiers, not innovators. But they aren't that far out of the game.

Superpower - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia



I could see this happening.

Potential superpowers - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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China has the biggest market in the world, provided that population has the money to spend. Most Chinese still don't. Maybe they will eventually.

But here's the rub about the military and political components: while China could theoretically achieve this, especially given its sheer size, I don't see an Asia that allows it to do so. At least not any "Asia" that I'm currently aware of. Too many adversarial nations (not to mention the US) combined. And I'm not really even including India in this discussion, although you easily could. I don't see these nations allowing China to get "too big." While they may never make a formal alliance system to counter it (since they all pretty much hate one another just as much as they do China), as long as the US can still project some Blue Water capability, I don't see the current order changing much.

If the US were to sink into a depression and have to withdraw from Asia, even then, I still don't see it. I think what happens then is a powder keg waiting to explode. Basically, what Asia was like before American power projection.
 
#9,929
#9,929
BBC News - Putin reveals secrets of Russia's Crimea takeover plot

Crimea was formally absorbed into Russia on 18 March, to international condemnation, after unidentified gunmen took over the peninsula.

Mr Putin said on TV he had ordered work on "returning Crimea" to begin at an all-night meeting on 22 February.

The meeting was called after Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych was ousted.

Speaking last year, Mr Putin had said only that he took his final decision about Crimea after secret, undated opinion polls showed 80% of Crimeans favoured joining Russia.

The findings of these polls were borne out by the outcome of the referendum on 16 March, he told Russian state TV last April.
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Thoughts?
 
#9,931
#9,931
to piggy back off of Prof, I don't think China has the global support needed to rise up. I don't think the world, right now, would accept China as THE superpower. When the US and USSR rose to power it was after defeating Nazi Germany, and they had both garnered respect (for lack of a better term) on the global stage. at least to the extent of "wow, don't mess with those guys they are crazy". Until history gives China the chance to do that and be the "good guys" they won't be a real superpower. and i think that is why Russia won't be either, at some point the world has to see you as the "good guy" to accept you.
 
#9,933
#9,933
LouderVol said:
to piggy back off of Prof, I don't think China has the global support needed to rise up. I don't think the world, right now, would accept China as THE superpower. When the US and USSR rose to power it was after defeating Nazi Germany, and they had both garnered respect (for lack of a better term) on the global stage. at least to the extent of "wow, don't mess with those guys they are crazy". Until history gives China the chance to do that and be the "good guys" they won't be a real superpower. and i think that is why Russia won't be either, at some point the world has to see you as the "good guy" to accept you.
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I haven't even mentioned China's internal problems yet. And people (most notably RT) think the US's internal relations are bad. China makes us look like a utopia.

When you look at the situations of both countries, China and the US, without any real context, you'd naturally be inclined to think China will naturally exceed the US in a global role.

But when you put context in, you realize pretty quick, this is a shaky notion at best. China has too many internal problems and too many neighborhood problems to fulfill the role that the US has. Furthermore, it's the role that the US has served that has allowed China to flourish in the first place.

I'm not one for "God has decreed this" sort of visions of America, but when you look at how geography has favored us to be able to project instead of worrying about Uighurs or South Chinese rebelling or Japanese taking over some volcanic islands and shutting us out of the world system, we really have been blessed. It's no wonder we hold the position we currently do. Just the luck of the draw.
 
#9,934
#9,934
Kadyrov seems to be making the case that the perpetrators are religiously devout patriots to Russia (see their awards and military service). So the message seems to imply that Nemtsov was a traitor that deserved to die and these patriots should get a pass for doing Russia a service.

I did notice Kadyrov and Lugovoy (Litvinenko assassin) both got awards from Putin today for their service to Russia. Putin loves his medals to those who do his bidding.
 
#9,936
#9,936
volprof said:
I haven't even mentioned China's internal problems yet. And people (most notably RT) think the US's internal relations are bad. China makes us look like a utopia.

When you look at the situations of both countries, China and the US, without any real context, you'd naturally be inclined to think China will naturally exceed the US in a global role.

But when you put context in, you realize pretty quick, this is a shaky notion at best. China has too many internal problems and too many neighborhood problems to fulfill the role that the US has. Furthermore, it's the role that the US has served that has allowed China to flourish in the first place.

I'm not one for "God has decreed this" sort of visions of America, but when you look at how geography has favored us to be able to project instead of worrying about Uighurs or South Chinese rebelling or Japanese taking over some volcanic islands and shutting us out of the world system, we really have been blessed. It's no wonder we hold the position we currently do. Just the luck of the draw.
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we deal with our racial issues differently. Over here we are willing to at least pretend that policies can 'fix' the situation. over in China their 'fix' is to intermarry and move in 'pure' Chinese to the area to change the demographics forcibly. None of our racial issues are leading to talks of revolution/secession but in China that is the talk almost constantly.
 
#9,937
#9,937
volprof said:
I don't see an Asia that allows it to do so. At least not any "Asia" that I'm currently aware of. Too many adversarial nations (not to mention the US) combined. And I'm not really even including India in this discussion, although you easily could. I don't see these nations allowing China to get "too big."
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Who, other than Japan, is in a position to do something about China? And what would they do to stop China from becoming "too big"?

The limiting factor is China itself, not its neighbors. The Philippines aren't going to hold Big Red back.

volprof said:
China has too many internal problems and too many neighborhood problems to fulfill the role that the US has.
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Again, the definition. Do I think China (or anyone else) will come to be what the U.S. has been the last 25 years? No, I do not. But I do think it can be a major power. Does that mean superpower? Maybe.
 
#9,938
#9,938
CSpindizzy said:
Secession/independence movements, trying to get the government to pay for Russian only schools, unconditional citizenship to ethnic Russians with 'non' statuses, etc. just to name a few.
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I don't consider educational or citizenship lobbying to be subversive in the sense they are a plot to overthrow a government.
 
#9,940
#9,940
Velo Vol said:
I don't consider educational or citizenship lobbying to be subversive in the sense they are a plot to overthrow a government.
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If they serve to create a hostile environment along ethnic lines, yes. These groups are intentionally stoking ethnic tensions. No Latvian government and majority of the people will support funds going to Russian only schools. They've already had a nationwide vote on Russian becoming the second language. There are ways for ethnic Russians to gain Latvian citizenship. But these groups are creating a grocery list of items to create a victim class to provoke a situation within Latvia. These are just a few examples mind you but the methods being used to stir up tensions as well as provide news orgs in Russia the means of justifying a tough attitude toward these nations.
 
#9,941
#9,941
Velo Vol said:
Who, other than Japan, is in a position to do something about China? And what would they do to stop China from becoming "too big"?

The limiting factor is China itself, not its neighbors. The Philippines aren't going to hold Big Red back.



Again, the definition. Do I think China (or anyone else) will come to be what the U.S. has been the last 25 years? No, I do not. But I do think it can be a major power. Does that mean superpower? Maybe.
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Vietnam has also increased their defense spending after the Chinese blew up three of their "military vessels" at whichever islands they are fighting over. I think it was 3 PT style boats vs a modern Destroyer. That is still not much of a threat, even combined with Japan. China is doing a good enough job pissing off their neighbors. Even China NK and China Mongolia are stretched right now.
 
#9,942
#9,942
Velo Vol said:
Who, other than Japan, is in a position to do something about China? And what would they do to stop China from becoming "too big"?

The limiting factor is China itself, not its neighbors. The Philippines aren't going to hold Big Red back.



Again, the definition. Do I think China (or anyone else) will come to be what the U.S. has been the last 25 years? No, I do not. But I do think it can be a major power. Does that mean superpower? Maybe.
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While Indonesia and the Phillippines are admittedly weak, when you add Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, Phillipines, Vietnam, and Indonesia all together (probably in no concerted alliance) you have somewhere around 500-600 million people and enough resources to keep a China threat at bay (not to weaken China, but to keep it at bay). This is not even including India, which has no interest in seeing China a superpower either.

Here's the internal difficulties he alluded to in the other video but didn't enumerate there:

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AtwFmyZcZKI[/youtube]
 
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#9,944
#9,944
Reading a little more into this documentary on Crimea - Putin says Feb 23rd was the pivotal decision day of action but yet the government commemorative medal says Feb 20th. The 20th was before Yanukovich even left office. Their own story is so wrapped in lies the details all contradict each other.
 
#9,945
#9,945
Pacer92 said:
Code for "we aren't welcome to come in and exploit this oil rich country"

So predictable and laughable..
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Venezuela is doing just fine self-imploding, thank you.

Hard to believe a country with that much oil (granted, it's very, very crude and ****ty) is going to allow itself to just go right in the crapper. I can see Venezuela experiencing a civil war before too long.

As always, I'm sure America will be to blame, which is code for "Our country and its leadership suck, but we need someone else to blame it on."
 
#9,946
#9,946
CSpindizzy said:
Reading a little more into this documentary on Crimea - Putin says Feb 23rd was the pivotal decision day of action but yet the government commemorative medal says Feb 20th. The 20th was before Yanukovich even left office. Their own story is so wrapped in lies the details all contradict each other.
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Sounds kind of similar to the narrative webs some of our own resident posters attempt to spin.
 
#9,947
#9,947
So Putin is saying even before Yanukovich fled, Russia did some undercover polling allegedly and found 75% of the people of Crimea would not mind joining Russia. So this means even before the sham referendum, the "coup", etc. Putin already decided this was taking place. Sort of puts a damper on the argument Russia only reacted to the vote or even a "coup" to illegally seize Crimea. Those wheels were in motion before.

"It turned out that those wishing to join Russia there 75% of the total composition. You understand, a survey was conducted indoors, outside the context of a possible merger. For me, it became obvious that if we get to it, the level or the number of those who would like to see this historic event occurred, would be much higher, "- said Vladimir Putin in the documentary" Crimea. Path to the Motherland ", an excerpt of which is shown channel" Russia 1 ".
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Оригинал новости RT на русском:
http://russian.rt.com/article/78559
 
#9,948
#9,948
CSpindizzy said:
So Putin is saying even before Yanukovich fled, Russia did some undercover polling allegedly and found 75% of the people of Crimea would not mind joining Russia. So this means even before the sham referendum, the "coup", etc. Putin already decided this was taking place. Sort of puts a damper on the argument Russia only reacted to the vote or even a "coup" to illegally seize Crimea. Those wheels were in motion before.



Оригинал новости RT на русском:
http://russian.rt.com/article/78559
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has the full thing come out yet? I would be interested in reading the transcript of the whole thing. without seeing the full context of some of these comments I am a little dubious about "how bad they are for Russia"
 
#9,949
#9,949
LouderVol said:
has the full thing come out yet? I would be interested in reading the transcript of the whole thing. without seeing the full context of some of these comments I am a little dubious about "how bad they are for Russia"
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It's a state media show and they seem to be leaking excerpts over a few days. Not sure what the game is here. It's timed for the anniversary and maybe Putin is just feeling bold enough to admit what he did. Seeing the impotence of the EU and NATO he could be growing an even bigger pair now.
 
#9,950
#9,950
As Rear Admiral Painter says in "The Hunt for Red October," "Russians don't take a dump without a plan."
 
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