Volunteers Not As Young As Sneaky Coach Jones Would Have You Think

#101
#101
Nice job OP and thanks for all the work you put in to try to actually get a serious football discussion going on VN for a change in this offseason.

What some call excuses are actually factual despite what they choose to believe.

Here's some other things to consider.

Last season our Vols were the youngest team in FBS and that's just a fact.

We had 23 true freshmen playing right out of high school and some were starters and that's NOT how any FBS coach wants his team to be on the 2 deep.

All the Dools recruits are not horrid but several have been recruited over with better talent so I believe we'll see some juniors and seniors used as backups only next season as more talent hits the field as starters and number 2's.

Despite what some will say, having more knowledge and in game experience is very important and at least several of last years true freshmen do now have some real game experience as sophs next year and we all pray none of them have the well known soph slump.

By normal standards of top programs we are still a young team when so many sophs and probably true freshmen will be in our 2 deep next season taking the places of some uniors and senors.

We now have verifiable proof that buTch and staff can recruit with the best but his 1st recruiting class was more Dools with buTch having such a short time to add on whatever he could get in such a short time which is why the ranking of that recruiting class was so much lower than the real Jones classes both ranked in the top 5.

2 more recruiting classes and we'll have 4 Jones true recruiting classes on the hill and by then we'll know lots more of what buTch and his staff can do.

Next season I expect 8 Wins and anything over 8 will be overachieving IMHO.

I'll expect more the following season with more talented depth and real game experience.

This is a total rebuild and I'm amazed at how fast this has happened and I still think buTch is 1 year ahead of schedule because of his great recruiting and being able to coach them up so fast to get 23 true freshmen last season to all making solid contributions.

Thank God we're finally on the right road back up the National mountain!

#BrickbyBrick...VFL...GBO!!!
 
#103
#103
Thanks Titan, very thoughtfully said. Here's where I'm coming, more and more, to believe the "we're too young to compete at the top level in 2015" argument is in error:

It's not in our age. Yes, we're young...average two-deep player is a Sophomore-to-Junior with 16 to 19 games under his belt (16 on O, 19 on D). So everyone who says, "hey, we're still young!" is absolutely right.

But the argument falls apart when you look at other teams. Turns out they're young (or younger than we thought) too! Ohio State famously won a NC with a sophomore-centered team. Georgia, steady old Georgia, has a sophomore-centered team as well: 29 seniors, 24 juniors, 42 sophomores, and 29 freshmen on their roster, with 23 underclassmen (16 soph, 7 frosh) on a strawman two-deep for 2015.

So...is our competition not as old and hoary as we thought? What, they're not all 44 RS Seniors on their two-deep rosters? Turns out, maybe not.

I might get un-lazy enough to pick another team and check it out today or tomorrow, just to see if the trend continues. Would probably be 'Bama. Florida would be too easy, people would accuse me of picking a team known to be young.

But so far, the evidence says...we're getting pretty darn close to the competition in our talent and experience. Game on.
 
#104
#104
VFL-82-JP said:
Okay, so there are degrees of resolution, right? You look at a rock and it looks smooth. You look up close and it has imperfections. You look under a microscope and it looks like the Grand Canyon.

There is always one more level of precision. If we were to count the number of games for each player rather than seasons--for instance, Dobbs was in 11 games over two years--you'd respond "yeah, but some of those games were already decided and so don't really count, he was just mopping up." If we went a level further and counted how many quarters they were in, you'd criticize similarly. If we went all the way down to the nit-noid detail and counted how many plays they each had, you'd be demanding that we throw out any plays where they took a knee or the score was 45-7, so they "didn't count."

And oh, by the way, it would take weeks just to put something that detailed together, IF the data is even available without paying big $$.

There is ALWAYS going to be something more you can demand. And, as already said, it always cuts both ways. At some point, you just have to accept that--unless YOU are willing to do the work yourself to add depth to the argument--what we got is the best we're gonna get, and go from there.

Otherwise, you're just taking cheap shots.
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Congratulations, you've just hit upon the reason it's such an unrewarding task to put together stats to demonstrate something to volnation...if it goes against the our-coaches-are-all-excellent-and-only-held-back-by-the-players-and-happenstance narrative, they will always just ask for more stats. "Yeah but what was the record of their predecessor against teams coming off bye weeks where they started more 4 stars than the other team?" They will do no work of their own. They really only want to ignore all the evidence you've presented by insinuating it isn't complete.
 
#105
#105
VFL-82-JP said:
My prediction: you will join right in with the rest of us celebrating and honoring these Derek Dooley recruited (and "tarnished" in your view) seniors when their career comes to a glorious end, less than a year from now. When names like Pig Howard and Chris Weatherd and Mack Crowder and Brian Randolph and Curt Maggitt, all "Dooley guys," will have led us to a far brighter 2015 season than many on these board predicted.

We'll be proud of them, proud that they chose to become Volunteers and then grew up to lead the 2015 squad, regardless of which coaches were at the other end of the fax machine when they sent in their letters of intent.

The world wasn't born with Butch Jones. He's awesome, and is a world-class recruiter. But there was some talent on the team when he arrived. Don't dismiss good players because they happened to show up while we had a bad coach.
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Weatherd is a Jones guy. Last year was his first as a Vol.
 
#106
#106
oregonvol said:
Congratulations, you've just hit upon the reason it's such an unrewarding task to put together stats to demonstrate something to volnation...if it goes against the our-coaches-are-all-excellent-and-only-held-back-by-the-players-and-happenstance narrative, they will always just ask for more stats. "Yeah but what was the record of their predecessor against teams coming off bye weeks where they started more 4 stars than the other team?" They will do no work of their own. They really only want to ignore all the evidence you've presented by insinuating it isn't complete.
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Tell me abut it, brother. :good!:

flatiron said:
Weatherd is a Jones guy. Last year was his first as a Vol.
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Yep, you're right, my bad. Just focus on the other guys instead.
 
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#107
#107
When I was in the Army, we used to have to give a lot of briefings. I mean, a lot. You get a mission, take some time to come up with a plan, then you gotta go brief the boss on how you're gonna accomplish it. Right?

And there's always this one nimrod in the back of the room who comes up with the most inane (but seemingly brilliant) questions, like, "did you consider the consistency of the soil on the drop zone, because that could make a BIG difference?" And your jaw is dropping to the ground, like, "Really? You expect me to have checked the consistency of the soil on the drop zone for this briefing? It's 0130 in the morning, we have to start pre-jump at 0530, four hours from now, I haven't slept in two days, the S-3 gave me this mission to prepare for two hours ago, I've busted my hump to go find a ton of intel, devise three decent ways of getting the job done, then extensively compared those three ideas against each other to pick the best one, then had to put it all together on some slides so I could explain it to the boss quickly and efficiently, and ... you want to know about the freaking SOIL on the mazzle frazzing DROP ZONE?" Of course, you can't say that. But it's what you're thinking.

Heh. And the guy always seems to be one rank higher than you, so you can't just go out and throttle him after the briefing's over.

Anyway, yep, I'm still pretty new to VolNation, man, but I'm learning quickly how it goes here. It's all good.
 
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#108
#108
VFL-82-JP said:
When I was in the Army, we used to have to give a lot of briefings. I mean, a lot. You get a mission, take some time to come up with a plan, then you gotta go brief the boss on how you're gonna accomplish it. Right?

And there's always this one nimrod in the back of the room who comes up with the most inane (but seemingly brilliant) questions, like, "did you consider the consistency of the soil on the drop zone, because that could make a BIG difference?" And your jaw is dropping to the ground, like, "Really? You expect me to have checked the consistency of the soil on the drop zone for this briefing? It's 0130 in the morning, we have to start pre-jump at 0530, four hours from now, I haven't slept in two days, the S-3 gave me this mission to prepare for two hours ago, I've busted my hump to go find a ton of intel, devise three decent ways of getting the job done, then extensively compared those three ideas against each other to pick the best one, then had to put it all together on some slides so I could explain it to the boss quickly and efficiently, and ... you want to know about the freaking SOIL on the mazzle frazzing DROP ZONE?"

Heh. And the guy always seems to be one rank higher than you, so you can't just go out and throttle him after the briefing's over.

Anyway, yep, I'm still pretty new to VolNation, man, but I'm learning quickly how it goes here. It's all good.
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so are you coach Azzani or DeBoard? :)
 
#110
#110
VFL-82-JP said:
Hah! Neither. But I'll take either of their pay, thanks very much :)
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just kidding,i would like one too,other than all there work,hmmm oh wait I would get a cool jacket :)







oh Freak,where are the cool Volnation.com Tees shirts at ? ask him if you would buy one , with a pocket :)


wait I will start a Tee shirt thread in a few days

or somebody should :)

yea i set you out Freak :)
 
#112
#112
governmentmule said:
2016 is the year to look for the big jump
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:good!:

and that doesn't necessarily mean next year won't be bigger than i expect, i just look at the schedule and wonder if we can go 3-3 or 4-2 against this stretch... OU, FL, Ark, GA, Bama, Mizzou.

i think winning 2 would be progress over what we've seen the past 5-7 years, seeing as we haven't beaten any of them lately. more than that, and i'm grinning ear to ear.

heck, we've been mostly on those team's highlight reels than anything else. and we play FL, Bama and Mizzou on the road.

the other thing to consider is that of the qb. besides being thin, we are still waiting/hoping that Dobbs actually develops. as happy as i am with the kid, he's still a little bit of an unknown. he's yet to play a full season...and get all the reps, off season conditioning, practice etc... a lot of what we're basing this all off of is IF he can become more consistent in the passing game, and still utilize his mobility.

anyway, i think we're just not a finished product yet. closer, yes. reason to feel optimistic, yes. reason to say we SHOULD win 9 or 10 games, no.
 
#113
#113
VFL-82-JP said:
Here's the two-deep comparison spreadsheet. Ignore the Alabama part, it turned out to be more work than I was willing to undertake, at least for now. :)


Two-DeepComparisonVolsampGav2.png


EDIT: 'Martin' error corrected, see below. Thanks for correction.
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Great post..I can see Khalil and Tuttle both getting a lot of PT on the DLine even though DT is one of if not the toughest position for a TR FR to come in and play well. But with the major size upgrade they both bring I could see both starting my mid season or atleast rotating a lot and possibly Picou as well. I know it all depends on how quickly they catch on and improve their strength but unfortunately we aren't deep enough to redshirt all 3 of them. We are very undersized but not much longer. Read that Kirkland is expected to come in and contribute and likely start day 1. Could see Williams really contributing early and often and Kelly getting some snaps as the tbird RB and mop up duty. The incoming punter could be the guy day one,Phillips should get a lot of snaps and guessing they expect Martin to start day 1..guys like Richmond, Jones and Boulware will get every opportunity to crack the two deep, depending on how quickly they gain strength and learn the offense. Also injuries and how much the guys in front of them have improved.Hopefully we won't have to rely on True FR having to start again on the Online. At least one FR QB will be getting 2nd team and live game reps. Hopefully our bad luck with losing at least one starting QB trend doesn't continue or at least two of the FR QB's will get PT and starting. Hopefully Dobbs stays healthy and won't need a FR to win us games. But with our 5 yr trend it's not likely we only have one starter the whole yr at QB. We could have the best Online in the country and still lose a QB. We have a trend of losing QB's with a freakish injury, especially the thumb. We still will have one of the youngest teams in the nation next season and possibly the youngest again depending on injuries and development. Butch has shown he will play whoever he thinks is the best player for each position. Wouldn't shock me if at least 12-15 FR get meaningful snaps and PT. If they come in and outplay the guys in front of them then good for them. At the very least it will motivate and push everyone even harder to get better at their position or they will get passed by a younger guy. Really look forward to the backup QB battle, Online and whole front 7 position battles. Really hoping McNeil improves in pass coverage or someone else does and takes his job. Will definitely be a lot of PT opportunities for the incoming guys, just a matter of what they do with it. And lastly and probably most importantly how much improvement can Dobbs make in the pass game. If he can make a big improvement on that then with Hurd, Kamara and a healthy receiving core we could be lethal on offense. Will be the most excited I have been for a season to start in a long time.
 
#114
#114
jakez4ut said:
:good!:

and that doesn't necessarily mean next year won't be bigger than i expect, i just look at the schedule and wonder if we can go 3-3 or 4-2 against this stretch... OU, FL, Ark, GA, Bama, Mizzou.

i think winning 2 would be progress over what we've seen the past 5-7 years, seeing as we haven't beaten any of them lately. more than that, and i'm grinning ear to ear.

heck, we've been mostly on those team's highlight reels than anything else. and we play FL, Bama and Mizzou on the road.

the other thing to consider is that of the qb. besides being thin, we are still waiting/hoping that Dobbs actually develops. as happy as i am with the kid, he's still a little bit of an unknown. he's yet to play a full season...and get all the reps, off season conditioning, practice etc... a lot of what we're basing this all off of is IF he can become more consistent in the passing game, and still utilize his mobility.

anyway, i think we're just not a finished product yet. closer, yes. reason to feel optimistic, yes. reason to say we SHOULD win 9 or 10 games, no.
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I agree on what Doobs needs to do,but will he ? and stay healthy ?
Worley got killed

don't you think the same will happen to Doobs sooner or later ?

and then who ? a freshmen? hopefully it is later in the year or maybe DeBoard will turn the O line around

who knows
 
#115
#115
VFL-82-JP said:
There are a TON of nuances you could apply in this kind of scoring system. I mean, you could spend weeks just fine-tuning your personal assessment of precisely how much each player's past experience is worth. And I'm more than happy for you to do that, but I wasn't going that far down the road. Feel free to fine tune to fit your perspective all you wish, I'm in favor.
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As subjective as it may be- it's good for conversation. Thanks, OP.
 
#118
#118
governmentmule said:
I agree on what Doobs needs to do,but will he ? and stay healthy ?
Worley got killed

don't you think the same will happen to Doobs sooner or later ?

and then who ? a freshmen? hopefully it is later in the year or maybe DeBoard will turn the O line around

who knows
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i think, as was displayed when Dobbs took over, that his mobility can/will hide some O line deficiencies, and the sack #'s will come down. Worley, God bless him, was a statue.

i think early on, the key will be 1st down offense. can we get 4-6 yards more times than not and not put ourselves in to obvious passing situations on 3rd down.

how nice would it be if an opposing defense had to creep a guy down in the box to help stop the run, or have to blitz an extra guy when we did have to pass? heck last year, we were getting beat on 3 man rushes.

duh, right? i'm sure that's a mind blowing concept!! lol.

but, i think part of the O line also depends on whether or not Blair can come in to his own, and how much the "experience" of 2014 translates in to development for the other returning guys.

bottom line, both are still question marks, even if slightly so, headed in to 2015. it's still reasonable to think that Dobbs will get better. and that the O line will get better. heck, just get to average will be significant improvement over last year.
 
#119
#119
jakez4ut said:
i think, as was displayed when Dobbs took over, that his mobility can/will hide some O line deficiencies, and the sack #'s will come down. Worley, God bless him, was a statue.

i think early on, the key will be 1st down offense. can we get 4-6 yards more times than not and not put ourselves in to obvious passing situations on 3rd down.

how nice would it be if an opposing defense had to creep a guy down in the box to help stop the run, or have to blitz an extra guy when we did have to pass? heck last year, we were getting beat on 3 man rushes.

duh, right? i'm sure that's a mind blowing concept!! lol.

but, i think part of the O line also depends on whether or not Blair can come in to his own, and how much the "experience" of 2014 translates in to development for the other returning guys.

bottom line, both are still question marks, even if slightly so, headed in to 2015. it's still reasonable to think that Dobbs will get better. and that the O line will get better. heck, just get to average will be significant improvement over last year.
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i have to agree,average will be good of the Offensive line,but we don't know that will happen,could one of the freshmen help ? i doubt it

Doobs will get smacked around when the SEC comes to play,then we shall see what he is made of
 
#120
#120
OP: I like the comparison, and I agree that we are much more experienced than last year and are building nice depth. I certainly won't want to hear about our youth from the coaches after this year. I'm with you I think 8 or 9 wins is both possible and likely.

That said... is there any evidence that Georgia isn't also a very young team?
 
#121
#121
Jones4theVols said:
OP: I like the comparison, and I agree that we are much more experienced than last year and are building nice depth. I certainly won't want to hear about our youth from the coaches after this year. I'm with you I think 8 or 9 wins is both possible and likely.

That said... is there any evidence that Georgia isn't also a very young team?
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make fun of Richt all we wan't to,but he puts a good team on the field,they won't be push overs ,what will the Vols field ? a big question mark I think
 
#122
#122
ClearwaterVol said:
I think lack of experience is no longer a valid excuse.
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i won't necessarily disagree. the quality of the experience can be debated.

i don't think it's any secret that most of the names you're going to see take the field next year are names you're going to recognize. can't really debate that.

it still goes beyond that though. when you think about situational football, special teams etc.... and the rotation of players available to pull from, and that will be used, there will still be plenty of inexperience filtered in next season.

less than last year, sure. enough to say we've 'arrived', eh, not yet. enough to reasonable expect an 8 win regular season, i think so.

the good news...we're all going to get to find out, and it should be fun!
 
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#123
#123
governmentmule said:
i have to agree,average will be good of the Offensive line,but we don't know that will happen,could one of the freshmen help ? i doubt it

Doobs will get smacked around when the SEC comes to play,then we shall see what he is made of
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eh, i don't about that. again, they were sooooo bad up front last year, just average O line play can be the difference in a game or two.

what if we could have scrounged up another couple of first downs against FL? or prevented just a couple of sacks against GA?

another thing kind of getting lost is that while our defense had the propensity of giving up big plays (OU, GA, Ole Miss), they consistently had to go on the field b/c our offense couldn't sustain anything.

getting just a little better on the o line could pay huge dividends next season. a little more ball control, additional scoring opportunities...

anyway, it's February. long way to go.
 
#125
#125
Jones4theVols said:
OP: I like the comparison, and I agree that we are much more experienced than last year and are building nice depth. I certainly won't want to hear about our youth from the coaches after this year. I'm with you I think 8 or 9 wins is both possible and likely.

That said... is there any evidence that Georgia isn't also a very young team?
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Thanks! Yeah, I really think Georgia are a young team. February two-deep rosters are always hotly debatable, but otherwise the numbers tell the story that they're about as young as we are.

Now the nagging follow-on question is, how widespread is this youthful trend? Is Alabama that way? A&M, who we have to play in a couple of years (with Chief as their DC)? LSU? I'm not yet energized enough to test any of those, but I'm dying to know.
 
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