WVU Open As 7.5 Point Favorite

[MountaineerLegion]

Exactly. If you're serious about your money you don't plunk it down until the absolute last moment. You never can tell when you're All American QB or MLB trips getting off the team bus arriving at the game and is out for the season.

Actually, most serious bettors will bet anytime they perceive an opportunity in a line. While the big houses have sophisticated algorithms for setting the opening line it's not uncommon for them to get the opening line wrong. You have to remember the opening line is really about the house's guess as to how much money will come in on each side of a bet because they want equal money on each side of the outcome. That way the bettors pay each other off and the house gets their profit from the vigorish. The house's advantage is that they can adjust the line to entice bets to get as close as possible to even money on an event. Serious bettors look for risk/reward opportunities based on the house's line, period. Often that's in an incorrect initial assessment of public opinion rather than when the house has millions of dollars bet to adjust their line..

As for outlier events such as your injury example, unless the probability is different for each team they cancel each other out.

 

[MountaineerLegion]

With WV being our opening game with new everything and with plenty of film on them, it seems to me that we have the advantage. I bet there will be more than just Vol fans watching the O&W game just to see what we are up to when it comes to our schemes on both sides of the ball.

Normally a WV type school could game plan starting after their last game the year before, but with our changes, sure they can look and find out weak links from 2017 and hope they carry over and they can point out our strengths and try to figure a way to slow that down but by most part all they can do is work on their own stuff, the same stuff that made them so good last year.

There is no film that will help any team get ready for the 2018 Vols yet. That is huge. It will be like WV will be playing in the dark against us. Maybe I'm wrong.

I expect us to be at our healthiest to start the season rather than missing any a bunch of starters and solid backups. We might be down to some 3rd stringers giving some help, but I expect them to be better developed than some of the 1st stringers from 2017. Maybe I'm wrong.

Sure it still means a lot to beat the Vols. There is no rivalry between us and WV. It's another ballgame that is on both of our schedules. They aren't grinding an axe for us, like Vandy and SC or even Ky. The SEC traditional bottom feeders got a taste if blood over the past few years and will be motivated to keep their win streaks going against us. Maybe I'm wrong.

Nobody knows who will be doing what when the Vols hit the field in 2018. They are all in the dark just like us. Will CJP force a scheme on players that can't execute it? I doubt it. Or will he evaluate our talent and figure out what we can do effectively and come up with game plans that will play to our strengths? That's what I expect. Maybe I'm wrong.

I agree in general with your assessment but will offer these points.

When you say there is no film I think that's a little overstated. I don't think many coaches make radical changes to their coaching philosophy just because they change positions or schools. Looking back into their history can yield some information. Even if Holgs was in his first year at WVU you would still know he grew up in Hal Mumme's air raid philosophy.

As for your coach adapting to the players you have, Holgs can look at last years film and assess your talent too.

So, while I agree in general with what you said, I don't think we're completely in the dark. Sure wish the season would hurry up and get here so we can find out.

 

[MountaineerLegion]

I watch WVU every weekend, I live in WV, and all of my friends are wvu fans first, converted Vol fans second. Saturday's in the Fall often consist of a two TV set up with each team playing.
I won't say a lot about the game, it's a toss up imo, but I'm fully prepared for a loss. Vols are a much more talented team, but like mentioned, will be a first game for an all new everything! I think it will boil down to a typically weak WVU o line and what our D line can do to put pressure on Grier. Sills will be a thorn, but I feel good about our secondary. If our d gives Grier all day to make throws tho, it'll be a long day for Vols!
I expect us to run the ball well, but if we can't throw, it'll be one dimensional, and y'all will break outta that 3-3-5, and stack the box to shut us down.
I'm heading down with about 10-12 friends, should be fun!

If we could make that assessment so, I think I'd take it and be happy. While "pressure" doesn't equal sacks we finished a respectable, albeit not exceptional, #28th in sacks allowed last year. We're also returning 4 of 5 OL next year. As much as I'd like to, I can't argue with your take on the more talented team or our "typically weak" OL. We've never come close to recruiting big bodies like the big teams in the SEC.

 

[Remy]

Actually, most serious bettors will bet anytime they perceive an opportunity in a line. While the big houses have sophisticated algorithms for setting the opening line it's not uncommon for them to get the opening line wrong. You have to remember the opening line is really about the house's guess as to how much money will come in on each side of a bet because they want equal money on each side of the outcome. That way the bettors pay each other off and the house gets their profit from the vigorish. The house's advantage is that they can adjust the line to entice bets to get as close as possible to even money on an event. Serious bettors look for risk/reward opportunities based on the house's line, period. Often that's in an incorrect initial assessment of public opinion rather than when the house has millions of dollars bet to adjust their line..

As for outlier events such as your injury example, unless the probability is different for each team they cancel each other out.

<blue font> You obviously know more about it than I. Lived on the West coast about 20 years between LA & Vegas and spent a fair amount of that time, like 2007 thru 2017 living in Vegas, sold my real estate there last year once the Raiders made their official announcement.My former property was about 6 miles from the new stadium site. Most of my friends and neighbors living there worked in gaming. That's gaming, not the entertainment and food and beverage piece of the business end of Vegas. The house adjusts the line for individual serious bettors as well, their spread is not the public spread or what the people putting $50K or less down. The people betting $s in value of what most of us have in our 401Ks per game commit just before kickoff was my experience.

 

[volfan102455]

LOL at those of you who think UT will win this game easily.

 

[MountaineerLegion]

<blue font> You obviously know more about it than I. Lived on the West coast about 20 years between LA & Vegas and spent a fair amount of that time, like 2007 thru 2017 living in Vegas, sold my real estate there last year once the Raiders made their official announcement.My former property was about 6 miles from the new stadium site. Most of my friends and neighbors living there worked in gaming. That's gaming, not the entertainment and food and beverage piece of the business end of Vegas. The house adjusts the line for individual serious bettors as well, their spread is not the public spread or what the people putting $50K or less down. The people betting $s in value of what most of us have in our 401Ks per game commit just before kickoff was my experience.

Not sure what "blue font" means but I too lived in Lost Wages for several years and had extensive experience with sports bettors. That said, the city and industry is big enough that I have no problem accepting that you may have had a different experience.

 

[RavinDave]

Not sure what "blue font" means but I too lived in Lost Wages for several years and had extensive experience with sports bettors. That said, the city and industry is big enough that I have no problem accepting that you may have had a different experience.

"Blue font" in VN generally means, what I really mean is kinda the OPPOSITE of what I am actually writing.... Or what I'm writing is to be taken with at least a grain of salt.

 

[MountaineerLegion]

"Blue font" in VN generally means, what I really mean is kinda the OPPOSITE of what I am actually writing.... Or what I'm writing is to be taken with at least a grain of salt.

Appreciate the heads up. We call it "burlywood" on our site. I'm going to assume he meant blue font for his entire post then.