We still have a shot at playoffs!

[bamawriter]

Too small a populatoin of games to be statistically significant. There's nothing unique about the SEC CG that prohibits the sample population from being much wider.

Where are you pulling the rest of the samples from?

 

[BearCat204]

Yeah, but the problem would be the 39 point home loss to the best team in the West.

Again, not saying it would definitely happen. And the SECCG game would have to come down to the very end so that the committee could determine it was flukey. I'm simply saying that it could.

If the committee looks at that as flukey, they probably should look at the UT/bama game as flukey as well considering half the roster was out for that game for UT. I get your point, I don't think it would happen, but I see why you are saying that. If it comes to that and they have 4 other undefeated of 1 loss teams that win their conference, I think they would take them and leave the SEC out.

 

[Bluetic]

Heck I wouldn't even consider an 11-2 season where we didn't win the East but made and won the Sugar, Orange, or Cotton Bowl to be bad either.

:good!: This is what I hope for. We aren't beating Bama and neither is anyone else before the playoff, so why not finish on a winning streak in the top 10 or even top 5 possibly. Last year we were the non-playoff team nobody wanted to play at the end of the season and we could be in a better position this year at the end.

Now if A&M shocks Bama this week, I'm all in for Atl because I think we can beat them!

 

[TrueOrange]

Even then it's not a given. If Louisville wins out but doesn't make the ACCCG, I think they may get in over UT. If either Michigan or OSU is left out in the Big 10 with just a close loss to the other, then I'm 100% confident that team would get in over 2 loss UT even with a conference title.

That's a fair point. It depends on just how much weight they give being the conference champion; it's not a scenario the committee has had to face yet...the closest we've seen was in the first year when Ohio State and Baylor both jumped previously #3 TCU that last weekend after each won /finally clinched their conference championships (however, those were all 1-loss teams, also).

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

Even then it's not a given. If Louisville wins out but doesn't make the ACCCG, I think they may get in over UT. If either Michigan or OSU is left out in the Big 10 with just a close loss to the other, then I'm 100% confident that team would get in over 2 loss UT even with a conference title.

How come?

What quality wins would Louisville have?

Their best win right now is over a 2-loss Florida State. If FSU loses to Clemson in 2 weeks that gives them 3 losses. No one else on their schedule is ranked except a 1-loss Houston team that has lost to Navy and almost lost to Tulsa last week.

Tennessee would presumably beat 12-0 #1 ranked Alabama in the SEC championship game. That's a better win than anybody in the country. And they would be a conference champion.

There is NO CHANCE a 11-1 Louisville makes it over a 11-2 SEC champion Tennessee.

Just look at last years rankings. 11-2 Pac-12 champ Stanford jumped 11-1 Ohio State in the final rankings after they won the Pac-12 championship.

 

[BeecherVol]

No way in hell this would happen.

I think there would be a chance. But there is no way you can say for sure that they still wouldn't take Bama after what happened Saturday.

Not that I wouldn't laugh my *** off if it did work out that way.

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

No we don't. We can still have an outstanding year....go 10-2 and play in the SECCG, maybe even win it to go 11-2 and then play in a top tier bowl and go 12-2....that would be an outstanding season. But I just don't see anyway we get into the Playoff.....way too many things out of our control that would have to fall in line perfectly IMO.

Not really.

All we need is the Big 12 champ to be Oklahoma. That would eliminate the possibility the Big 12 would have an undefeated champ.

If that one thing happens and we win out, we're in.

A 11-2 SEC champ makes it in over a 11-1 non-champ in any other conference.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

Where are you pulling the rest of the samples from?

Just conventional wisdom over a lifetime of watching football.

And not just mine, either. You frequently hear sports reporters mention the difficulty of beating a team twice in one year in football.

Wish I could share cogent statistics with you, but don't know of any study that has ever been done on the question in any meaningful way. Would love to see them, if they existed.

 

[luthervol]

Who's idolizing him? Pointing out facts isn't suggesting he isn't human. You seem to be more infatuated with the man than I. So because he isn't an NFL coach means he's not a good college football coach? One that is considered the best in the history of college football?

Saying "our chances of beating a Saban coached Bama team in the SECCG is slim to none" is not a fact.
It is an opinion.

One I hope our players and coaches do not share.

No infatuation here. I dislike the man and do not put him in the "best in the history of college football" category.

He couldn't break rules to recruit the best players in the NFL - it was all coaching - thus his failure.

 

[bamawriter]

How come?

What quality wins would Louisville have?

Their best win right now is over a 2-loss Florida State. If FSU loses to Clemson in 2 weeks that gives them 3 losses. No one else on their schedule is ranked except a 1-loss Houston team that has lost to Navy and almost lost to Tulsa last week.

Tennessee would presumably beat 12-0 #1 ranked Alabama in the SEC championship game. That's a better win than anybody in the country. And they would be a conference champion.

It is not outside the realm of possibility that Alabama would be UT's only win over a ranked team at year end. UF and VPI might be ranked, but with the way both teams are playing, I think it's 50/50 at best.

 

[TrueOrange]

This......we go 10-2 I think we still see a NY6 Bowl game. Just win out this season and whatever happens happens with bama in the SECCG and even if we lose that game, we are still sitting pretty good and an improvement from last year (and every other year the past decade)....I'd take that and be happy as ****.

Well, we go 10-2 but miss the SEC Championship Game, we're likely playing in the Sugar, Orange, or Cotton bowl.

We go 10-2 and lose in the SEC Championship Game to end up 10-3, we would fall in the next week's final rankings and would more than likely end up in something like the Citrus Bowl instead (unless something happens like somehow A&M, Ole Miss, LSU, UF, and Arkansas all have 3 or more losses).

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

No, the SEC would get shutout in that scenario probably.

Do yall even pay attention to what the playoff committee looks at?

The #1 criteria is conference championships won. Unless there are 4 other conference champions with 1 or less losses, a 2-loss conference champion from the SEC will get in.

Right now the Big 12 has 2 undefeated teams (West Virginia and Baylor). Both look like frauds. As long Oklahoma wins the Big 12 at 10-2, a 2-loss SEC champion will be in.

11-2 SEC champ Tennessee >>> 10-2 Big 12 champ Oklahoma

11-2 SEC champ Tennessee >>> 11-1 Louisville or 11-1 Michigan/Ohio State

A 11-1 team that doesn't win it's conference championship will not make it over a 11-2 SEC champ that just beat the #1 team in the country on championship weekend.

 

[KBVol]

Heck I wouldn't even consider an 11-2 season where we didn't win the East but made and won the Sugar, Orange, or Cotton Bowl to be bad either.

Good point. We're light years ahead of where we were 3-4 years ago. 10-2 with a chance to go 11-2 would be outstanding on its own. Still, not winning the East would be disappointing.

 

[bamawriter]

Just conventional wisdom over a lifetime of watching football.

And not just mine, either. You frequently hear sports reporters mention the difficulty of beating a team twice in one year in football.

Wish I could share cogent statistics with you, but don't know of any study that has ever been done on the question in any meaningful way. Would love to see them, if they existed.

Since rematches aren't all that common in college football, it didn't take long to look up.

Here are the conference title game rematches for all Power 5 conferences, including the defunct Big XII game.

SEC: Regular season winner is 5-1
Big Ten: 0-2
Pac 12: 3-1
ACC: 2-2
Big XII: 4-2

Combined, the regular season winner is 14-8.

EDIT to increase the sample size:

There has been one rematch in the MWC title game, and it was won by the regular season winner.

In the MAC Championship Game, the regular season winner is 3-2 in rematches.

So the overall record for all conference title game rematches is 18-10 in favor of the regular season winner.

 

[Rudy123]

Gotta hope till none is left!

In 2008, didn't we get "Hope & Change" ?

 

[Bluetic]

Since rematches aren't all that common in college football, it didn't take long to look up.

Here are the conference title game rematches for all Power 5 conferences, including the defunct Big XII game.

SEC: Regular season winner is 5-1
Big Ten: 0-2
Pac 12: 3-1
ACC: 2-2
Big XII: 4-2

Combined, the regular season winner is 14-8.

It would be 15-8...not a nega, just saw which team was superior Saturday.

 

[TrueOrange]

It's a small chance, on a convoluted path. All these things have to go right:

1. Win out. Even as we're getting guys healed up again for the post-season, we have to beat a bunch of beatable teams. All well and good to say "sure, we should," but there's always a fly in the ointment. I'd say our chances of winning all five remaining games are a cumulative 80% (better than 90% chance for any single game, but around 80% for all five in a row). Anyway, if we're able to win out and end up 10-2...

2. Florida lose another SEC game. This is quite possible, since the Gators still have Georgia, Arkansas and LSU to go. Might say as good as 90%, but it's certainly at least an 80% chance. If FL loses again, and we win out, that opens the door to...

3. Win the SEC CG. The good news is, we will almost certainly have a repeat with either Bama or A&M ... and the second game tends to favor the one who lost early. Nonetheless, both those teams did beat us. I'm probably being a bit generous when I give us a 50% chance here.

Accomplish all of that (at a .5 * .8 * .8 = 32% chance), and congrats, we're the 11-2 SEC champs.

In the meantime, we also need these things to happen:

4. Bama lose an SEC game before the SEC CG. Why? Because a 12-1 reigning national champ Bama could be competition with the Vols for one of the playoff berths, even if we beat them in Atlanta. Particularly if the CG is close (remember, we got blown out the first time). Chances of Bama losing again between now and the end of November? I'd say pretty good, with A&M, LSU and Auburn all still on the schedule. Say a 75% chance Bama throws one of those.

5. Cull the herd nationwide. The majority of these teams have to lose two games in the next seven weeks: Ohio State, Michigan, Nebraska, Clemson, Washington, Baylor, and West Virginia. Oh, and add Louisville to that pile as well; they've lost one, but would need to lose another or count among those maximum 3 teams who can be left with 0- or 1-loss. Problem is, there's a really good chance 4 or more of them all end up with 1 loss or less. THIS is the long pole in the tent for the Vols getting into the Playoffs. We simply can't get there, even as SEC champs, if there are four or more of these teams who look better. And if they are undefeated or have only one loss, particularly a close loss to an undefeated team (think Michigan-OSU-Nebraska), they will look better to the playoff committee. In my mind, less than 25% chance this herd gets thinned down to three or fewer.

So there they are: the five things that have to happen for us to get into the playoffs. Put them all in a string, and I give us less than a 10% chance of getting there.

I'm not holding my breath.

Instead, I'm focused on what I believe is the top realistic goal for Team 120: SEC Champs.

Go Vols!

A rematch game in the SEC Championship has only favored the other team in the outcome once.

Though more often - and to be honest, 6 games is far from enough to analyze to determine if something really "tends" to happen or not - the 2nd game has only benefited/favored the loser in the sense that first game blowouts have seen closer 2nd games, but then again, the first games that were actually closer have also seen second games in Atlanta that were more of blowouts as well.

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

It's a small chance, on a convoluted path. All these things have to go right:

1. Win out. Even as we're getting guys healed up again for the post-season, we have to beat a bunch of beatable teams. All well and good to say "sure, we should," but there's always a fly in the ointment. I'd say our chances of winning all five remaining games are a cumulative 80% (better than 90% chance for any single game, but around 80% for all five in a row). Anyway, if we're able to win out and end up 10-2...

2. Florida lose another SEC game. This is quite possible, since the Gators still have Georgia, Arkansas and LSU to go. Might say as good as 90%, but it's certainly at least an 80% chance. If FL loses again, and we win out, that opens the door to...

3. Win the SEC CG. The good news is, we will almost certainly have a repeat with either Bama or A&M ... and the second game tends to favor the one who lost early. Nonetheless, both those teams did beat us. I'm probably being a bit generous when I give us a 50% chance here.

Accomplish all of that (at a .5 * .8 * .8 = 32% chance), and congrats, we're the 11-2 SEC champs.

In the meantime, we also need these things to happen:

4. Bama lose an SEC game before the SEC CG. Why? Because a 12-1 reigning national champ Bama could be competition with the Vols for one of the playoff berths, even if we beat them in Atlanta. Particularly if the CG is close (remember, we got blown out the first time). Chances of Bama losing again between now and the end of November? I'd say pretty good, with A&M, LSU and Auburn all still on the schedule. Say a 75% chance Bama throws one of those.

5. Cull the herd nationwide. The majority of these teams have to lose two games in the next seven weeks: Ohio State, Michigan, Nebraska, Clemson, Washington, Baylor, and West Virginia. Oh, and add Louisville to that pile as well; they've lost one, but would need to lose another or count among those maximum 3 teams who can be left with 0- or 1-loss. Problem is, there's a really good chance 4 or more of them all end up with 1 loss or less. THIS is the long pole in the tent for the Vols getting into the Playoffs. We simply can't get there, even as SEC champs, if there are four or more of these teams who look better. And if they are undefeated or have only one loss, particularly a close loss to an undefeated team (think Michigan-OSU-Nebraska), they will look better to the playoff committee. In my mind, less than 25% chance this herd gets thinned down to three or fewer.

So there they are: the five things that have to happen for us to get into the playoffs. Put them all in a string, and I give us less than a 10% chance of getting there.

I'm not holding my breath.

Instead, I'm focused on what I believe is the top realistic goal for Team 120: SEC Champs.

Go Vols!

Disagree on points 4 and 5. But especially point 5.

We don't need the rest of the country to have 2 losses. The days of counting losses are over. Did you guys even pay attention to the playoff committee last year? They ranked a 11-2 Pac-12 winning Stanford team #5 ahead of 11-1 non-Big 10 champ Ohio State.

Conference championships won matter. In fact it's the first criteria the playoff committee looks at. If we win the SEC championship at 11-2 we'll automatically jump ahead of every 11-1 team that hasn't won a conference championship.

Our only competition will be other conference champions with 1 or less losses. That's why I said the only major thing we need right now is for Oklahoma to win the Big 12 at 10-2. Thereby eliminating the possibility of there being 4 other conference champions with 1 or less losses. If Oklahoma wins the Big 12, we're guaranteed a spot in the final 4.

The 12-1 Alabama point is interesting. They would have an argument to get in before is but I think it would fail. The main thing the playoff committee looks at is how good the team is at that time not what happened months ago. Unlike computers they'll factor in injuries. Obviously if we beat Alabama on a neutral site after getting demolished at home a few months earlier, it would support the argument that our blowout loss was the result of injuries and fatigue.

I'm confident that as long as we don't win in a fluky manner, a 11-2 SEC champion Tennessee team will get in ahead of a 12-1 non-champ Alabama team.

 

[99gator]

If UT makes the playoffs, hopefully they play michigan in the first round---michigan is overrated.

Based on what?

 

[MWAVolfan]

We are mathematically still in the running, but we are 10 1/2 games out with 11 games to play, so to speak.

 

[MWAVolfan]

If you completely ignore several realities, then yes we still have a chance.

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

If the runner-up loses a close game (say a last second field goal) after beating the champion by 39 at their house? Yeah, it could absolutely happen.

Not really. Maybe in the computer era but not in the committee era. They look at more than just the margin of wins and losses. They factor in injuries and whether teams improve as the season goes on.

If Tennessee somehow beats Alabama in the SEC championship game after losing by 39 at home it would support the argument that the blowout loss was more about injuries and fatigue than Alabama being simply that much better.

If Tennessee beats Alabama fair and square in Atlanta, they will get into the playoffs before Alabama.

 

[TrueOrange]

We needed help in '98 to make the BCS game, and that turned out pretty well. So I am with Mink on this one, I will hold out hope until hope is gone.

Did we? We were well Kansas State) by a sizable amount (well comparably sizable amount, since differences in the BCS rankings were in decimal amounts) in the rankings and we stayed ahead of UCLA in the rankings all year before they lost in the final week.

 

[SaintLouisVol]

. . .Conference championships won matter. In fact it's the first criteria the playoff committee looks at. . . .

It should be. How can you call yourself National Champion if you don't win your own dang conference?

 

[DERELICK_MY_VOLS]

Even then it's not a given. If Louisville wins out but doesn't make the ACCCG, I think they may get in over UT. If either Michigan or OSU is left out in the Big 10 with just a close loss to the other, then I'm 100% confident that team would get in over 2 loss UT even with a conference title.

A 2 loss SEC Champion....regardless of who the 2 loss team is....is > a one loss non ACC or Big 10 team.....as far as the Big Ten....there is a massive coup to make them more relevant than the SEC....Nebraska barely beat a very bad Oregon team and a bunch of scrubs so far...Wisconsin has ZERO reasons to be in the top 10 with 2 losses but there they are even though there is some no loss and one loss teams in the top 25...example IOWA last year.