We still have a shot at playoffs!

#27
#27
We would need the SEC West leader to have 2 losses heading into the SEC champ game and teams from other conferences to have 1-2 losses. Undefeated teams from power 5 will get the benefit.

Currently undefeated teams..

1. ACC (Clemson)
2. Big 12 (Baylor and WV)
3. Big 10 (Michigan, OSU, and Nebraska)
4. Pac 12 (Washington)
5. SEC (Bama and TxAM)

As of right now, Big 10 has the best shot of getting 2 teams in from same conference but that's still unlikely.

Washington and Pac12 need to stumble and fumble badly.
Need Baylor and WV to both be a 1 loss team somehow.
FSU needs to crush Clemson and Louisville needs another loss.
TxAM needs to beat Bama.
 
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#29
#29
Dougie_D said:
We would need the SEC West leader to have 2 losses heading into the SEC champ game and teams from other conferences to have 1-2 losses. Undefeated teams from power 5 will get the benefit.

Currently undefeated teams..

1. ACC (Clemson)
2. Big 12 (Baylor and WV)
3. Big 10 (Michigan, OSU, and Nebraska)
4. Pac 12 (Washington)
5. SEC (Bama and TxAM)

As of right now, Big 10 has the best shot of getting 2 teams in from same conference but that's still unlikely.

Washington and Pac12 need to stumble and fumble badly.
Need Baylor and WV to both be a 1 loss team somehow.
FSU needs to crush Clemson and Louisville needs another loss.
TxAM needs to beat Bama.
Click to expand...

If Bama is undefeated going into the SECCG and we manage to beat them, Bama WILL NOT go into the playoffs ahead of us.
 
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#30
#30
There's a chance I could win the lottery jackpot without buying a ticket. Someone could drop the winning ticket and the wind could blow it right into my lap. I hope that happens.
 
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#33
#33
Good chance? absolutely no.

Slim chance had the Bama game been a game with 5 mins left with the injuries.

Losing by 40 regardless of who didn't play Saturday left a mark.
 
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#36
#36
It's a small chance, on a convoluted path. All these things have to go right:

1. Win out. Even as we're getting guys healed up again for the post-season, we have to beat a bunch of beatable teams. All well and good to say "sure, we should," but there's always a fly in the ointment. I'd say our chances of winning all five remaining games are a cumulative 80% (better than 90% chance for any single game, but around 80% for all five in a row). Anyway, if we're able to win out and end up 10-2...

2. Florida lose another SEC game. This is quite possible, since the Gators still have Georgia, Arkansas and LSU to go. Might say as good as 90%, but it's certainly at least an 80% chance. If FL loses again, and we win out, that opens the door to...

3. Win the SEC CG. The good news is, we will almost certainly have a repeat with either Bama or A&M ... and the second game tends to favor the one who lost early. Nonetheless, both those teams did beat us. I'm probably being a bit generous when I give us a 50% chance here.

Accomplish all of that (at a .5 * .8 * .8 = 32% chance), and congrats, we're the 11-2 SEC champs.

In the meantime, we also need these things to happen:

4. Bama lose an SEC game before the SEC CG. Why? Because a 12-1 reigning national champ Bama could be competition with the Vols for one of the playoff berths, even if we beat them in Atlanta. Particularly if the CG is close (remember, we got blown out the first time). Chances of Bama losing again between now and the end of November? I'd say pretty good, with A&M, LSU and Auburn all still on the schedule. Say a 75% chance Bama throws one of those.

5. Cull the herd nationwide. The majority of these teams have to lose two games in the next seven weeks: Ohio State, Michigan, Nebraska, Clemson, Washington, Baylor, and West Virginia. Oh, and add Louisville to that pile as well; they've lost one, but would need to lose another or count among those maximum 3 teams who can be left with 0- or 1-loss. Problem is, there's a really good chance 4 or more of them all end up with 1 loss or less. THIS is the long pole in the tent for the Vols getting into the Playoffs. We simply can't get there, even as SEC champs, if there are four or more of these teams who look better. And if they are undefeated or have only one loss, particularly a close loss to an undefeated team (think Michigan-OSU-Nebraska), they will look better to the playoff committee. In my mind, less than 25% chance this herd gets thinned down to three or fewer.

So there they are: the five things that have to happen for us to get into the playoffs. Put them all in a string, and I give us less than a 10% chance of getting there.

I'm not holding my breath.

Instead, I'm focused on what I believe is the top realistic goal for Team 120: SEC Champs.

Go Vols!
 
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#37
#37
BearCat204 said:
Hope is fine......"a good chance" is just flat out disingenuous. If the stars align and we get back to the SECCG and beat bama we will be in...........the chances of beating a Saban coached bama team in the SECCG is slim to none though.
Click to expand...

This idolization of Saban is becoming nauseating.:sick:
Last I checked, Saban is still a mortal human.:naughty:
If he was as great a coach as some on here think, he would still be in the NFL.:nono:
I hope to God our players and coaches do not view him as invincible as some of you seem to.
 
#38
#38
We needed help in '98 to make the BCS game, and that turned out pretty well. So I am with Mink on this one, I will hold out hope until hope is gone.
 
#41
#41
luthervol said:
This idolization of Saban is becoming nauseating.:sick:
Last I checked, Saban is still a mortal human.:naughty:
If he was as great a coach as some on here think, he would still be in the NFL.:nono:
I hope to God our players and coaches do not view him as invincible as some of you seem to.
Click to expand...
Who's idolizing him? Pointing out facts isn't suggesting he isn't human. You seem to be more infatuated with the man than I. So because he isn't an NFL coach means he's not a good college football coach? One that is considered the best in the history of college football?
 
#42
#42
VFL-82-JP said:
3. Win the SEC CG. The good news is, we will almost certainly have a repeat with either Bama or A&M ... and the second game tends to favor the one who lost early.
Click to expand...

This is not true. There have been six rematches in the SECCG. The team that won the regular season game is 5-1 in the rematches with an average MOV of 24.
 
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#44
#44
bamawriter said:
If the runner-up loses a close game (say a last second field goal) after beating the champion by 39 at their house? Yeah, it could absolutely happen.
Click to expand...

No way in hell this would happen. Now if UT manged to get in the SECCG with 3 losses, I could go with it, but not with 2 losses and one of those being a 2 OT loss to the second best SECW team.
 
#45
#45
bamawriter said:
This is not true. There have been six rematches in the SECCG. The team that won the regular season game is 5-1 in the rematches.
Click to expand...

Too small a populatoin of games to be statistically significant. There's nothing unique about the SEC CG that prohibits the sample population from being much wider.
 
#46
#46
BearCat204 said:
No way in hell this would happen. Now if UT manged to get in the SECCG with 3 losses, I could go with it, but not with 2 losses and one of those being a 2 OT loss to the second best SECW team.
Click to expand...

I agree with Bamawriter on this point. It could happen.

If I'm on the CFP Committee, and I see two teams that met twice during the year...they split those two games...one of the games was a blowout and the other was very close...the team that won the blowout is 12-1 and the team that won the close game is 11-2...and oh by the way, the team that is 12-1 with the blowout win is the reigning national champ ... I might be very tempted to go with that team over the conference champion.

Not saying I would, just that there are strong arguments pulling in both directions. In other words: it could happen.
 
#47
#47
BearCat204 said:
No way in hell this would happen. Now if UT manged to get in the SECCG with 3 losses, I could go with it, but not with 2 losses and one of those being a 2 OT loss to the second best SECW team.
Click to expand...

Yeah, but the problem would be the 39 point home loss to the best team in the West.

Again, not saying it would definitely happen. And the SECCG game would have to come down to the very end so that the committee could determine it was flukey. I'm simply saying that it could.
 
#48
#48
KBVol said:
No we don't. We can still have an outstanding year....go 10-2 and play in the SECCG, maybe even win it to go 11-2 and then play in a top tier bowl and go 12-2....that would be an outstanding season. But I just don't see anyway we get into the Playoff.....way too many things out of our control that would have to fall in line perfectly IMO.
Click to expand...

Heck I wouldn't even consider an 11-2 season where we didn't win the East but made and won the Sugar, Orange, or Cotton Bowl to be bad either.
 
#49
#49
luthervol said:
This idolization of Saban is becoming nauseating.:sick:
Last I checked, Saban is still a mortal human.:naughty:
If he was as great a coach as some on here think, he would still be in the NFL.:nono:
I hope to God our players and coaches do not view him as invincible as some of you seem to.
Click to expand...

I don't think he is immortal, and one day he will slip or retire. But not today unfortunately...we'll get ours and Bama will get theirs when he is gone.
 
#50
#50
Its funny watching the lunacy in this board shift the further we get away from a 39 point lose and the fact that we have lost 5 players for the year and several others for extended periods of time.

Can we just focus on winning the next 5 games, like normal people should be doing right now?
 
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