It's a small chance, on a convoluted path. All these things have to go right:
1. Win out. Even as we're getting guys healed up again for the post-season, we have to beat a bunch of beatable teams. All well and good to say "sure, we should," but there's always a fly in the ointment. I'd say our chances of winning all five remaining games are a cumulative 80% (better than 90% chance for any single game, but around 80% for all five in a row). Anyway, if we're able to win out and end up 10-2...
2. Florida lose another SEC game. This is quite possible, since the Gators still have Georgia, Arkansas and LSU to go. Might say as good as 90%, but it's certainly at least an 80% chance. If FL loses again, and we win out, that opens the door to...
3. Win the SEC CG. The good news is, we will almost certainly have a repeat with either Bama or A&M ... and the second game tends to favor the one who lost early. Nonetheless, both those teams did beat us. I'm probably being a bit generous when I give us a 50% chance here.
Accomplish all of that (at a .5 * .8 * .8 = 32% chance), and congrats, we're the 11-2 SEC champs.
In the meantime, we also need these things to happen:
4. Bama lose an SEC game before the SEC CG. Why? Because a 12-1 reigning national champ Bama could be competition with the Vols for one of the playoff berths, even if we beat them in Atlanta. Particularly if the CG is close (remember, we got blown out the first time). Chances of Bama losing again between now and the end of November? I'd say pretty good, with A&M, LSU and Auburn all still on the schedule. Say a 75% chance Bama throws one of those.
5. Cull the herd nationwide. The majority of these teams have to lose two games in the next seven weeks: Ohio State, Michigan, Nebraska, Clemson, Washington, Baylor, and West Virginia. Oh, and add Louisville to that pile as well; they've lost one, but would need to lose another or count among those maximum 3 teams who can be left with 0- or 1-loss. Problem is, there's a really good chance 4 or more of them all end up with 1 loss or less. THIS is the long pole in the tent for the Vols getting into the Playoffs. We simply can't get there, even as SEC champs, if there are four or more of these teams who look better. And if they are undefeated or have only one loss, particularly a close loss to an undefeated team (think Michigan-OSU-Nebraska), they will look better to the playoff committee. In my mind, less than 25% chance this herd gets thinned down to three or fewer.
So there they are: the five things that have to happen for us to get into the playoffs. Put them all in a string, and I give us less than a 10% chance of getting there.
I'm not holding my breath.
Instead, I'm focused on what I believe is the top realistic goal for Team 120: SEC Champs.
Go Vols!