We still have a shot at playoffs!

[UT-Rex]

Even if UT wins out and wins the SECCG, they will need some serious help.

It's not impossible, but there is not a "good chance".

Advice to John Kelly -- you stay in bounds, lower that body and ram right over Holcomb BEFORE he has the opportunity to lower his head and knock you out.

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

I agree with Bamawriter on this point. It could happen.

If I'm on the CFP Committee, and I see two teams that met twice during the year...they split those two games...one of the games was a blowout and the other was very close...the team that won the blowout is 12-1 and the team that won the close game is 11-2...and oh by the way, the team that is 12-1 with the blowout win is the reigning national champ ... I might be very tempted to go with that team over the conference champion.

Not saying I would, just that there are strong arguments pulling in both directions. In other words: it could happen.

That's the old computer/poll era way of thinking.

Have you guys even read the playoff committee's criteria?

The #1 criteria is conference championships won. That would favor Tennessee over Alabama since we would be SEC champs and they wouldn't.

Then it would be head to head comparison. We would be each 1-1.

Also don't forget the playoff committee factors in injuries and improvement during the course of the season. If we go from losing by 39 at home in October to beating Alabama on a neutral site fair and square in December then it would show our team has improved immensely over time. And if we beat them in December with a healthier squad, it would support the argument that injuries played a major role in the earlier loss.

Remember the terminology the playoff committee uses. The only way a non-champion makes it in over a conference champion is if the non-champ is "UNEQUIVOCALLY BETTER". If Tennessee is the SEC champion, How could Alabama be UNEQUIVOCALLY BETTER if they just lost to Tennessee fair and square on a neutral site.



Guys a 11-2 Tennessee team will make it in before a 12-1 Alabama team that just lost to Tennessee on a neutral site.

 

[99gator]

Not really. Maybe in the computer era but not in the committee era. They look at more than just the margin of wins and losses. They factor in injuries and whether teams improve as the season goes on.

If Tennessee somehow beats Alabama in the SEC championship game after losing by 39 at home it would support the argument that the blowout loss was more about injuries and fatigue than Alabama being simply that much better.

If Tennessee beats Alabama fair and square in Atlanta, they will get into the playoffs before Alabama.

Dude, you are going to think I am just hating on Tennessee but Alabama has a damn good argument if they lose a rematch in a close game.

You're telling me that they can kick the crap out of everyone all year, including the team they earn a split with and get passed over by a 2 loss team that has won on fumble recoveries in the end zone and hail mary's.

Bama would have a better record, played a better schedule, had more impressive victories and beat Tennessee by 39 on their own field. That's not going away by a loss by a fg on a neutral field.

Tennessee would have to beat Alabama....badly

 

[99gator]

A 2 loss SEC Champion....regardless of who the 2 loss team is....is > a one loss non ACC or Big 10 team.....as far as the Big Ten....there is a massive coup to make them more relevant than the SEC....Nebraska barely beat a very bad Oregon team and a bunch of scrubs so far...Wisconsin has ZERO reasons to be in the top 10 with 2 losses but there they are even though there is some no loss and one loss teams in the top 25...example IOWA last year.

Tell me who Ohio State or Michigan loses to in the SEC outside of Alabama.

 

[bamawriter]

Remember the terminology the playoff committee uses. The only way a non-champion makes it in over a conference champion is if the non-champ is "UNEQUIVOCALLY BETTER". If Tennessee is the SEC champion, How could Alabama be UNEQUIVOCALLY BETTER if they just lost to Tennessee fair and square on a neutral site.

It's not a difficult argument to make that the team that won by more than 5 TDs in the other team's house is better than the one that won a squeaker on a neutral site.

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

Yeah, but the problem would be the 39 point home loss to the best team in the West.

Again, not saying it would definitely happen. And the SECCG game would have to come down to the very end so that the committee could determine it was flukey. I'm simply saying that it could.

Or the playoff committee could determine the 39 point home loss as flukey since Tennessee was missing half it's starting lineup that day?

Sorry buddy but what happens in December will matter alot more than what happened in October. If Tennessee somehow beats Alabama in Atlanta after such a blowout loss, it wouldn't make that win flukey. It would show the 39 point loss as flukey.

11-2 SEC champ Tennessee will get in over a 12-1 non-champ Alabama per the playoff committee's criteria.

 

[bamawriter]

Or the playoff committee could determine the 39 point home loss as flukey since Tennessee was missing half it's starting lineup that day?

Sorry buddy but what happens in December will matter alot more than what happened in October. If Tennessee somehow beats Alabama in Atlanta after such a blowout loss, it wouldn't make that win flukey. It would show the 39 point loss as flukey.

11-2 SEC champ Tennessee will get in over a 12-1 non-champ Alabama per the playoff committee's criteria.

The Committee's criteria is a guideline. Neither you nor I know how they'll choose to follow it.

Heck, during the first year of the playoff the only undefeated conference champ got the #3 seed and had to fly across the country to play their semifinal game. The committee looks at all kinds of different factors.

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

That's a fair point. It depends on just how much weight they give being the conference champion; it's not a scenario the committee has had to face yet...the closest we've seen was in the first year when Ohio State and Baylor both jumped previously #3 TCU that last weekend after each won /finally clinched their conference championships (however, those were all 1-loss teams, also).

Last year the committee gave us an answer to this. Nobody paid attention cause it didn't effect the top 4.

11-2 Pac-12 champ Stanford jumped 11-1 non-Big 10 champ Ohio State in the final poll after they won their conference championship. That right there shows the committee values conference championships won more than they do having 1 less loss.

A 11-2 SEC champion Tennessee will make the playoffs over any 11-1 non-champ and even a 12-1 Alabama that loses in the SEC championship game.

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

It is not outside the realm of possibility that Alabama would be UT's only win over a ranked team at year end. UF and VPI might be ranked, but with the way both teams are playing, I think it's 50/50 at best.

True.

But if Tennessee beats a 12-0 #1 ranked Alabama team in the SEC championship game, nobody would have a better win the entire season.

 

[SayNoToJorts]

Living in Atlanta I hear this from UGA fans every year. If so-and-so loses 2 games, and this team loses to this team, and this other team gets vaporized in an asteroid impact, we will be in the SHIP!

Let's just focus on USC

 

[99gator]

Last year the committee gave us an answer to this. Nobody paid attention cause it didn't effect the top 4.

11-2 Pac-12 champ Stanford jumped 11-1 non-Big 10 champ Ohio State in the final poll after they won their conference championship. That right there shows the committee values conference championships won more than they do having 1 less loss.

A 11-2 SEC champion Tennessee will make the playoffs over any 11-1 non-champ and even a 12-1 Alabama that loses in the SEC championship game.

Maybe the committee stopped giving a damn after the top 4.

It's apples and oranges anyway

 

[MWAVolfan]

Or the playoff committee could determine the 39 point home loss as flukey since Tennessee was missing half it's starting lineup that day?

Sorry buddy but what happens in December will matter alot more than what happened in October. If Tennessee somehow beats Alabama in Atlanta after such a blowout loss, it wouldn't make that win flukey. It would show the 39 point loss as flukey.

11-2 SEC champ Tennessee will get in over a 12-1 non-champ Alabama per the playoff committee's criteria.

Arguing which team would be picked first is more than likely a moot point because the reality of it is that if Tennessee were to win the rematch, neither team would be selected. A two loss team, even if a conference champion, would get passed over by any other 1 or 0 loss champion. Bama would not get chosen because they would rightly be heavy favorites going into the SECCG and a loss would be highly embarrassing and damaging to their chances by losing to a team that they already beat badly and also beat by a team that won with "pixie dust" and never put up a dominant performance all year. There is no way Bama would survive that loss.

 

[bamawriter]

11-2 Pac-12 champ Stanford jumped 11-1 non-Big 10 champ Ohio State in the final poll after they won their conference championship. That right there shows the committee values conference championships won more than they do having 1 less loss.

First, the decision as to who was ranked 5 or 6 is totally irrelevant since neither is making the playoff. At that point both were guaranteed a spot in a NY6 bowl and the ranking wouldn't determine where they were going.

Second, it was justifiable in that case because Stanford played and won a twelfth game while OSU did not. And Stanford had played a better schedule than OSU.

 

[TrueOrange]

Good point. We're light years ahead of where we were 3-4 years ago. 10-2 with a chance to go 11-2 would be outstanding on its own. Still, not winning the East would be disappointing.

Exactly. Three years ago, this school was looking at a 5-7 final record and its 4th straight season with a losing record.

Not winning the East would stink - especially from a bragging rights point of view - but if UT were to show up and blow out whoever they played in a Sugar/Orange/Cotton bowl level game, that's still a great year and the team would still be carrying a ton of hype, momentum, etc., into next season as well.

 

[Wildasamink16]

Not really. Maybe in the computer era but not in the committee era. They look at more than just the margin of wins and losses. They factor in injuries and whether teams improve as the season goes on.

If Tennessee somehow beats Alabama in the SEC championship game after losing by 39 at home it would support the argument that the blowout loss was more about injuries and fatigue than Alabama being simply that much better.

If Tennessee beats Alabama fair and square in Atlanta, they will get into the playoffs before Alabama.

Yes!

 

[SaintLouisVol]

Yes, I hate 'Bama, but I would say this in ANY instance for any conference in the country. If you don't win your conference, you don't deserve to be in the CFP.

If Tennesse wins out and beat Alabama in the SECCG (BIG if BTW), I'd prefer they snub the SEC altogether rather than invite 'Bama.

 

[JonGrudensAgent]

Dude, you are going to think I am just hating on Tennessee but Alabama has a damn good argument if they lose a rematch in a close game.

You're telling me that they can kick the crap out of everyone all year, including the team they earn a split with and get passed over by a 2 loss team that has won on fumble recoveries in the end zone and hail mary's.

Bama would have a better record, played a better schedule, had more impressive victories and beat Tennessee by 39 on their own field. That's not going away by a loss by a fg on a neutral field.

Tennessee would have to beat Alabama....badly

One man's Hail Mary's and fumbles in the end zone is another man's resiliency.

 

[MWAVolfan]

One man's Hail Mary's and fumbles in the end zone is another man's resiliency.

Resilience! Never give up on your own mistakes!

 

[JonGrudensAgent]

Resilience! Never give up on your own mistakes!

That's the only way you become 1 percent better every day.

 

[volfannbama]

We needed help in '98 to make the BCS game, and that turned out pretty well. So I am with Mink on this one, I will hold out hope until hope is gone.

We were also undefeated, minor details I know.

 

[volfannbama]

I have to say, it is funny watching the back and forth on here....as if this were a real discussion

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

Dude, you are going to think I am just hating on Tennessee but Alabama has a damn good argument if they lose a rematch in a close game.

You're telling me that they can kick the crap out of everyone all year, including the team they earn a split with and get passed over by a 2 loss team that has won on fumble recoveries in the end zone and hail mary's.

Bama would have a better record, played a better schedule, had more impressive victories and beat Tennessee by 39 on their own field. That's not going away by a loss by a fg on a neutral field.

Tennessee would have to beat Alabama....badly

Once again read the committee's criteria and look at the precedent.

In the old poll/computer era you would be correct. But the playoff committee has strict guidelines they follow. First and foremost being CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS WON. The committee's own guidelines say that the only way a non-champion can get in over a conference champion is if the non-champ is UNEQUIVOCALLY BETTER.

Is a 12-1 Alabama team that just lost on a neutral site to a 11-2 Tennessee team "UNEQUIVOCALLY BETTER"?

I'm guessing the playoff committee says no.

 

[TheMookieMonster]

Can we stop acting so crazy? The playoffs are not happening this year. Let's just be real. We can be proud of what the team has accomplished and look forward to the rest of the season without putting some unrealistic goal on it.

We are down 16 starters on this team (of those that have started at least 1 game) and we will be lucky if we get half of them back. Beating Bama is a longshot, and even if we do, we need a lot of help to get in.

Besides, I don't honestly think we are one of the 4 best teams in CFB. We have had a great season guys, but this is not a playoff team. We look extremely crazy for thinking so.

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

It's not a difficult argument to make that the team that won by more than 5 TDs in the other team's house is better than the one that won a squeaker on a neutral site.

Not if you are a rational human being and take injuries into account.

Tennessee was missing 9 starters and as many as 14 total players from their 2-deep during the October match-up with Alabama.

If those guys come back and help lead Tennessee to victory over Alabama on a neutral site, it would support the argument that the only reason the October match-up was so lopsided was because of injuries.

Also remember, the playoff committee looks at how your team looks in December not in October. So if Tennessee wins over Alabama in the SEC championship game, that would be stronger evidence they are the better team than who won the match-up in October.

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

The Committee's criteria is a guideline. Neither you nor I know how they'll choose to follow it.

Heck, during the first year of the playoff the only undefeated conference champ got the #3 seed and had to fly across the country to play their semifinal game. The committee looks at all kinds of different factors.

Exactly. And injuries is one of them.

The playoff committee would know we were missing nearly half of our starters in the October match-up with Alabama. If we beat Alabama in a rematch in Atlanta it would support the argument that injuries were the main reason for the blowout loss not a disparity in ability.

I'll just put it this way. I would rather be the 11-2 SEC Champ than the 12-1 non-SEC Champ that Saturday if I want to make the playoffs.