War in Ukraine

#77,276
#77,276
Rocky_Top_Vol13 said:
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How do they know?
 
#77,277
#77,277
dalton_vol said:
How do they know?
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we have been over this.

No one should care if its absolutely correct. Its war, the numbers are always going to be off.

I like it because it provides a consistent, even if wrong, measure of how the war is going. Its generally reflective of what is actually happening. When one side makes a big push, the numbers jump by a good bit. when nothing is happening they stay low.

its better than the Russian method of just making up numbers. Russia claimed Ukrainian losses jumped from 300k to 500k to over a million in less than two months. but those were all just thrown out there with no way to track progress. I have asked for similar Russian reports, but the best they can do so far is one off reports which never really seem to reflect what has actually happened.

I find it much more helpful to get a constant bit of information than to have random press conferences drop numbers with no context.
 
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#77,278
#77,278
LouderVol said:
we have been over this.

No one should care if its absolutely correct. Its war, the numbers are always going to be off.

I like it because it provides a consistent, even if wrong, measure of how the war is going. Its generally reflective of what is actually happening. When one side makes a big push, the numbers jump by a good bit. when nothing is happening they stay low.

its better than the Russian method of just making up numbers. Russia claimed Ukrainian losses jumped from 300k to 500k to over a million in less than two months. but those were all just thrown out there with no way to track progress. I have asked for similar Russian reports, but the best they can do so far is one off reports which never really seem to reflect what has actually happened.

I find it much more helpful to get a constant bit of information than to have random press conferences drop numbers with no context.
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Is there a site or talley for Ukraine losses?
 
#77,279
#77,279
dalton_vol said:
Is there a site or talley for Ukraine losses?
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Personnel wise, it is probably very similar. Maybe a little less. Traditionally in war, the attacker suffers more attrition, especially in long-drawn out attacks. Quick attacks that led to surrenders are exceptions (think Nazi Germany Blitzkrieg or Napoleon's quick attacks).
 
#77,280
#77,280
volbound1700 said:
Personnel wise, it is probably very similar. Maybe a little less. Traditionally in war, the attacker suffers more attrition, especially in long-drawn out attacks. Quick attacks that led to surrenders are exceptions (think Nazi Germany Blitzkrieg or Napoleon's quick attacks).
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Normally the attacker has to have 3-5x more than the number of defenders. So id say ukraine has fewer losses than Russia but russia has a much larger number of troops.
 
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#77,282
#77,282
MontyPython said:
Check with @volgr or @Rasputin_Vol

Both of these ladies are plugged into the Russian disinformation system and will tell you confidently that Ukraine has already lost more men than the entire pre-war Ukrainian population.
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So russia is disinformation and ukraine isnt?. Both leaders are cut from the same cloth. I wouldnt trust either.
 
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#77,283
#77,283
LouderVol said:
we have been over this.

No one should care if its absolutely correct. Its war, the numbers are always going to be off.

I like it because it provides a consistent, even if wrong, measure of how the war is going. Its generally reflective of what is actually happening. When one side makes a big push, the numbers jump by a good bit. when nothing is happening they stay low.

its better than the Russian method of just making up numbers. Russia claimed Ukrainian losses jumped from 300k to 500k to over a million in less than two months. but those were all just thrown out there with no way to track progress. I have asked for similar Russian reports, but the best they can do so far is one off reports which never really seem to reflect what has actually happened.

I find it much more helpful to get a constant bit of information than to have random press conferences drop numbers with no context.
Click to expand...
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#77,285
#77,285
dalton_vol said:
Normally the attacker has to have 3-5x more than the number of defenders. So id say ukraine has fewer losses than Russia but russia has a much larger number of troops.
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Possibly. Ukraine has performed some counter-attacks as well.

Equipment-wise, I imagine Russia has lost more. Russia's big screwup was the first few months of the war on the Kiev offensive. I think that was their biggest defeat to date. In fact, it is pretty embarrassing. Outside of that offensive, the rest of the war from Russia's perspective hasn't been great but it isn't an embarrassment. I feel like Russia flipped the war from the quick offensive (Kiev) to one of attrition.

Putin is also following a Stalin/Soviet strategy of conscripting primarily from non-Russian minorities to reduce the war backlash and kill of minorities. Russia has been engaged in these tactics for a long time. Places like Chechnya, Siberia, and Dagestan have seen far more loss than other areas of Russia in this war.
 
#77,286
#77,286
volbound1700 said:
Possibly. Ukraine has performed some counter-attacks as well.

Equipment-wise, I imagine Russia has lost more. Russia's big screwup was the first few months of the war on the Kiev offensive. I think that was their biggest defeat to date. In fact, it is pretty embarrassing. Outside of that offensive, the rest of the war from Russia's perspective hasn't been great but it isn't an embarrassment. I feel like Russia flipped the war from the quick offensive (Kiev) to one of attrition.

Putin is also following a Stalin/Soviet strategy of conscripting primarily from non-Russian minorities to reduce the war backlash and kill of minorities. Russia has been engaged in these tactics for a long time. Places like Chechnya, Siberia, and Dagestan have seen far more loss than other areas of Russia in this war.
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That's interesting, i guess those men would gladly serve for some money and food. I think we have no clue how bad the standard of living in those small countries are to attrect men to fight for Russia. Where you did find those resources about chechnya.
 
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#77,287
#77,287
dalton_vol said:
That's interesting, i guess those men would gladly serve for some money and food. I think we have no clue how bad the standard of living in those small countries are to attrect men to fight for Russia. Where did find those resources about chechnya.
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Read several articles about it. Note that these regions are in Russia so they are not separate nations. They are minorities that are still part of the Russian Federation. For example, a year ago, Putin's strongman from Chechnya was complaining about it. The conscription has been heaviest in the regions just north of Caucuses which are populated more by Tartars and other Muslim Turkish Tribes. There have also been articles citing very little conscription in major Russian cities such as Moscow, St. Petersburg, etc.

Stalin was notorious for allowing Soviet minorities such as Ukrainians, Tartars, Chechnya, Georgians (his own people ironically), and others take the brunt of casualties and less focused on Russians.

Edit: This is a tactic that has been utilized throughout history. Late Roman Empire primarily used Germanic barbarians in their armies (although it backfired royally on them eventually). French utilized Colonial Troops and Foreign Legion for the wars in Algeria and Vietnam. British Empire took over Indian with mostly local troops (Sepoys) lead by British generals. China has utilized a lot of Mongolians in past conflicts during Ming/Manchu era. Ottomans used Janissaries (Christian Greeks, Bulgarians, Albanians, etc.) as their primary military force.
 
#77,288
#77,288
dalton_vol said:
So russia is disinformation and ukraine isnt?. Both leaders are cut from the same cloth. I wouldnt trust either.
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Fair enough. But, notably, Ukraine's numbers are pretty much in line with both US and British casualty estimates of Russian troops. In contrast, @volgr makes absurd claims that Ukrainian troop losses are 7x to 10x those of Russia's. When our resident Russians are pressed for sources of their numbers, they provide no sources and no links. Given that Russian casualties are estimated by multiple 3rd parties to exceed 300K troops, this would mean that Ukraine would have already suffered between 2.1M to 3.0M casualties. So, it's obvious to any reasonably skeptical observer that @volgr is simply just full of ****.

Also of note, the estimates generally posted here daily are for total casualties, not deaths. Equipment losses appears to include any vehicle that is hit - regardless of whether it's ultimately destroyed or recoverable.

Another more "neutral" source is ORYX. These guys independently tally equipment losses on both sides - and their data show significantly higher losses by the Russians (15K lost by Russia v. 5K lost by Ukraine). Of note, Oryx only counts visually confirmed equipment losses. Our resident Russians would tell you they're Western pawns, but I've seen no evidence of this.
 
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#77,289
#77,289
MontyPython said:
Fair enough. But, notably, Ukraine's numbers are pretty much in line with both US and British casualty estimates of Russian troops. In contrast, @volgr makes absurd claims that Ukrainian troop losses are 7x to 10x those of Russia's. When our resident Russians are pressed for sources of their numbers, they provide no sources and no links. Given that Russian casualties are estimated by multiple 3rd parties to exceed 300K troops, this would mean that Ukraine would have already suffered between 2.1M to 3.0M casualties. So, it's obvious to any reasonably skeptical observer that @volgr is simply just full of ****.

Also of note, the estimates generally posted here daily are for total casualties, not deaths. Equipment losses appears to include any vehicle that is hit - regardless of whether it's ultimately destroyed or recoverable.

Another more "neutral" source is ORYX. These guys independently tally equipment losses on both sides - and their data show significantly higher losses by the Russians (15K lost by Russia v. 5K lost by Ukraine). Of note, Oryx only counts visually confirmed equipment losses. Our resident Russians would tell you they're Western pawns, but I've seen no evidence of this.
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Yeah, i dont keep up with the war, when i do search i see clips of some russian tank getting hit by a drone. I dont see much on an updated overview, or situation. It seems there is a stalemate on both sides. Each sides is hitting targets with drones Etc... not sure how long this war can go on without a serious escelation from either side.
 
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#77,290
#77,290
dalton_vol said:
Yeah, i dont keep up with the war, when i do search i see clips of some russian tank getting hit by a drone. I dont see much on an updated overview, or situation. It seems there is a stalemate on both sides. Each sides is hitting targets with drones Etc... not sure how long this war can go on without a serious escelation from either side.
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Yep, it's essentially a stalemate now.
 
#77,291
#77,291
#77,292
#77,292
dalton_vol said:
Yeah, i dont keep up with the war, when i do search i see clips of some russian tank getting hit by a drone. I dont see much on an updated overview, or situation. It seems there is a stalemate on both sides. Each sides is hitting targets with drones Etc... not sure how long this war can go on without a serious escelation from either side.
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Russia is promising a big push around summer, we shall see.
 
#77,294
#77,294
MontyPython said:
Yep, it's essentially a stalemate now.
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yeah, and supposedly taking Adviik was going to be the next great break thru that doomed Ukraine. since then the Russians have advanced 5 miles in a month at the site of this great break thru.

they are literally moving at a tortoise pace. thats a stalemate no matter how Ras wants to sell it.
 
#77,297
#77,297
TVOLS said:
Russia is promising a big push around summer, we shall see.
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By then, Ukraine should be brimming with US-supplied 'defensive' weapons with the $60B in funding forthcoming.

Seems that the US calculus at the highest levels of our government favors a stalemate. It's sad and morally wrong IMO, but it's pretty evident that it exists.
 
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#77,299
#77,299
MontyPython said:
By then, Ukraine should be brimming with US-supplied 'defensive' weapons with the $60B in funding forthcoming.

Seems that the US calculus at the highest levels of our government favors a stalemate. It's sad and morally wrong IMO, but it's pretty evident that it exists.
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Jake Sullivan is going to tear his own fingers off from wringing his hands over the possibility of Russia breaking apart from Putin's adventurism in Ukraine failing.
 
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#77,300
#77,300
rUsSiA iS sTrOnGeR tHaN eVeR.


"the delivery of two squadrons of S-400 air defense systems to India is now expected to be deferred until 2026. This delay is primarily linked to Russia’s pressing need to address its own military requirements amid the war in Ukraine."

Somehow, someway they will argue that Russia being unable to meet its export deals means they are better off than before.
 
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