War in Ukraine

#77,229
#77,229
volinbham said:
Admittedly I haven't been following the day to day progress but given the desired US aid hasn't been forthcoming what is the real result?

Seems the stalemate continues - would the aid package have made any material change (eg Ukraine victory)? Begs the question.
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I don't think Ukraine has ability to obtain victory here but Russia isn't knocking it out of the park either and frankly is getting a bloody noise over it. Not sure when both sides will talk. Both governments seem to have control over their people so there isn't that pressure to talk yet.
 
#77,230
#77,230
volinbham said:
Admittedly I haven't been following the day to day progress but given the desired US aid hasn't been forthcoming what is the real result?

Seems the stalemate continues - would the aid package have made any material change (eg Ukraine victory)? Begs the question.
Click to expand...
I think the argument is that a stalemate favors the defender and/or weaker power. both of which are Ukraine.

I have said from the start, winning for Ukraine was never going to be anything dramatic. it was always just trying to get the Russians to blink first. I think it will pretty much be a white peace at the end of war, both sides holding what they hold. maybe some horsetrading to make lines more defensible or something. but you won't see major concessions from either side at this point unless there is a collapse.
 
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#77,231
#77,231
LouderVol said:
I think the argument is that a stalemate favors the defender and/or weaker power. both of which are Ukraine.

I have said from the start, winning for Ukraine was never going to be anything dramatic. it was always just trying to get the Russians to blink first. I think it will pretty much be a white peace at the end of war, both sides holding what they hold. maybe some horsetrading to make lines more defensible or something. but you won't see major concessions from either side at this point unless there is a collapse.
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I think Russia will have Crimea secured by treaty as theirs and may grab Donetsk and Luhansk but they probably don't be able to get much outside of that. Not sure if Russia wanted these lands initially as they liked having that troublesome minority in Ukraine to impact elections. However, annexing these regions is probably their only bet now as Ukraine is pretty anti-Russian now.
 
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#77,233
#77,233
volinbham said:
So is the big aid package from the US really necessary if the situation isn't materially changed by it's absence?

The longer the stalemate holds, the weaker the argument for us to keep pumping money in.
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In theory, yes. The reasoning is that over 1/3 of Ukraine is under attack so hard for them to develop and arm themselves. Russia, on the other hand, has a lot of industry far from the frontlines that they can use to recover ammunition.

Both sides do look spent right now but Russia SHOULD (key word should) have the capabilities to replinish and win eventually. They are just that BIG.

This is why Ukraine is begging for outside support. If they don't get it, in theory, they should collapse. Now Russia has been so incompetent that Ukraine may hold up even without support.

I love seeing posts with Ras badmouthing Ukraine because it just makes Russia look even worse for their failures. The entire stalled armored caravan to Kiev thing is still hilarious.
 
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#77,234
#77,234
volinbham said:
So is the big aid package from the US really necessary if the situation isn't materially changed by it's absence?

The longer the stalemate holds, the weaker the argument for us to keep pumping money in.
Click to expand...
I think the best thing that could happen is Macron backs up his bluff and takes the lead on the situation. If they own it and it’s obviously in their sphere of influence I’d say we wish them luck and run for the door!
 
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#77,235
#77,235
NorthDallas40 said:
I think the best thing that could happen is Macron backs up his bluff and takes the lead on the situation. If they own it and it’s obviously in their sphere of influence I’d say we wish them luck and run for the door!
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That would be a rough escalation between two Nuclear Powers. Not good for the world.
 
#77,236
#77,236
volbound1700 said:
That would be a rough escalation between two Nuclear Powers. Not good for the world.
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I’m not advocating for French troops to get directly involved I’m referring to all of Macron’s bluster recently. Let them serve the role we are currently serving as this is by and large a European issue anyway. But that’s a decision for France to make on how much they want to get involved.

I’ve been pretty clear on my stance that I think we’re obligated to provide lethal aid but no troops. But this situation desperately screams for Europe to step up and handle their house.
 
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#77,237
#77,237
NorthDallas40 said:
I’m not advocating for French troops to get directly involved I’m referring to all of Macron’s bluster recently. Let them serve the role we are currently serving as this is by and large a European issue anyway. It that’s a decision for France to make on how much they want to get involved.

I’ve been pretty clear on my stance that I think we’re obligated to provide lethal aid but no troops. But this situation desperately screams for Europe to step up and handle their house.
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We have been giving them equipment. Granted, sometimes it is equipment you want to get rid of or is in stores. It basically gives military an excuse to update our forces and get rid of the older equipment.

Europe as a whole has been sending weapons to Ukraine though, not just USA. Now a lot of European nations own US equipment and have sent US equipment that they OWN.
 
#77,239
#77,239
volbound1700 said:
I think Russia will have Crimea secured by treaty as theirs and may grab Donetsk and Luhansk but they probably don't be able to get much outside of that. Not sure if Russia wanted these lands initially as they liked having that troublesome minority in Ukraine to impact elections. However, annexing these regions is probably their only bet now as Ukraine is pretty anti-Russian now.
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Agreed. What is left of Ukraine will become huge enemies of Russia. Over the next couple of decades they will arm themselves to the teeth.
 
#77,240
#77,240
volbound1700 said:
BTW, I think the French rhetoric on Ukraine has a lot more to it than just Ukraine itself. Video for context:

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France is the most guilty for having their hands in the colonialist cookie jar, after all these years of squawking about the US. Kinda funny watching Russia regime change them out of their holdings.
 
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#77,242
#77,242
volinbham said:
Admittedly I haven't been following the day to day progress but given the desired US aid hasn't been forthcoming what is the real result?

Seems the stalemate continues - would the aid package have made any material change (eg Ukraine victory)? Begs the question.
Click to expand...
No, Ukraine victory was never the objective. It was to "weaken" Russia and attempt to remove their ability to make war. But instead, they forced Russia to increase domestic/indigenous production of weapons and extend trade relations with countries outside of The West/Japan/South Korea/Australia/NZ.

NOBODY really believed that Ukraine would win. This was supposed to be a project where the US/NATO convinces Ukrainians to sacrifice themselves for the geopolitical interests of The US/NATO.

If you really think that a Ukrainian victory in this was (or still is) the objective, then you are missing the point. They were hoping to orchestrate regime change in Russia/destabilize Russia with a quagmire war on their border.
 
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#77,243
#77,243
Rasputin_Vol said:
No, Ukraine victory was never the objective. It was to "weaken" Russia and attempt to remove their ability to make war. But instead, they forced Russia to increase domestic/indigenous production of weapons and extend trade relations with countries outside of The West/Japan/South Korea/Australia/NZ.

NOBODY really believed that Ukraine would win. This was supposed to be a project where the US/NATO convinces Ukrainians to sacrifice themselves for the geopolitical interests of The US/NATO.

If you really think that a Ukrainian victory in this was (or still is) the objective, then you are missing the point. They were hoping to orchestrate regime change in Russia/destabilize Russia with a quagmire war on their border.
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And nobody but a handful of useful idiots think Russia is coming out of this stronger than when they went in.
 
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#77,244
#77,244
MG1968 said:
And nobody but a handful of useful idiots think Russia is coming out of this stronger than when they went in.
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It took them 8 years to prep for Ukraine. and even all that preparation has turned into a 2 year stalemate with a nation 1/3 the population.

but somehow, some way, Russia is going to be able to flip the switch and take on all of NATO somewhat shortly after they win in Ukraine.
 
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#77,247
#77,247
GJlTN-cXsAA3SMK
 
#77,250
#77,250
I am always super thankful for the Russian experts that contribute to this thread. No need to reply, you know who you are.
 
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