Trump: He Could Easily Be Reelected

#26
#26
BowlBrother85 said:
The nationwide polls were within the margin of error but some very important battleground states such as Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan were wrong, yes.
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That's all you need cowboy. Once you've established it is wrong you have to use another piece of evidence to prove your point.

Ftr, I don't give a rat sass why Clinton won and Bush lost. Clinton was re-elected in four years even though Perot pulled a few votes so he obviously was electable.

I did not vote for Bush.

Can we move on now?
 
#29
#29
BowlBrother85 said:
If you want to argue that the polls were wrong in 2016 that is fine but they weren't wrong in 1992 and they clearly show that Perot drew evenly between Clinton and Bush in the 1992 election. The belief that all of Perot's 19% came from Bush is a false narrative that Republicans have always used to make themselves feel better about losing to a hippy draft dodger like Bill Clinton.
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The 19% that voted for Perot wasn’t in anyway voting for Clinton.

Bush lost that election for really 1 reason, he agreed to a tax increase pushed by the Dems. It was probably the right thing to do at the time but they hung him with it and that was the beginning of the vitriol between the parties.
 
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#30
#30
hog88 said:
The 19% that voted for Perot wasn’t in anyway voting for Clinton.

Bush lost that election for really 1 reason, he agreed to a tax increase pushed by the Dems. It was probably the right thing to do at the time but they hung him with it and that was the beginning of the vitriol between the parties.
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Precisely the reason I voted Perot. Had Bush not broken his read my lips, he'd have had my vote.

All this history just to point out incumbents are diffucult to beat.
 
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#31
#31
malinoisvol said:
Two reasons I didn't vote for Bush the second time: 1. Taxes; 2. NWO.

I watched BHO give the keynote at the DNC in 94(?). I told the wife then he'd be a future president and maybe a good one if his party didn't rule him.

I was 1 for 2.
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More like 2004 I believe.
 
#33
#33
hog88 said:
The 19% that voted for Perot wasn’t in anyway voting for Clinton.

Bush lost that election for really 1 reason, he agreed to a tax increase pushed by the Dems. It was probably the right thing to do at the time but they hung him with it and that was the beginning of the vitriol between the parties.
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I didn't say all 19%... The numbers clearly show that Perot drew 9.5% from both Clinton and Bush. There is no evidence that his presence in the campaign changed the results in the electoral college at all. Once again, Perot's strongest showing was in Texas which Bush won anyway.

The 'read my lips' tax hike was definitely a factor but the economy was also tanking and Clinton simply ran a better campaign than Bush. While Clinton was talking about economic recovery, Bush and the Republicans were talking about family values and attacking his character. Some parallels with what we are seeing today for sure.
 
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#34
#34
golfballs said:
Easily? How about likely
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How about we wait and see who his opponent is first? Let's not forget that Trump's approval ratings (while improving) are still very low. His Real Clear Politics Average is 45%... He has maintained his base but there is no evidence that he has expanded his base since being elected - and that was by only 105,000 votes across 3 states (Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin).
 
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#39
#39
BowlBrother85 said:
I didn't say all 19%... The numbers clearly show that Perot drew 9.5% from both Clinton and Bush. There is no evidence that his presence in the campaign changed the results in the electoral college at all. Once again, Perot's strongest showing was in Texas which Bush won anyway.

The 'read my lips' tax hike was definitely a factor but the economy was also tanking and Clinton simply ran a better campaign than Bush. While Clinton was talking about economic recovery, Bush and the Republicans were talking about family values and attacking his character. Some parallels with what we are seeing today for sure.
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There is no doubt about Clinton being one of the best politicians of all time, the guy was likable. Or I should say likable if ya didn’t know him, my wife’s family knew him real well her aunt KNEW him and hated him.

He ran a masterful campaign and fooled a lot of people, the Republican sweep in 94 saved his chance at reelection, he decided he liked being president more than Hillary’s leftist policies.
 
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#40
#40
BowlBrother85 said:
How about we wait and see who his opponent is first? Let's not forget that Trump's approval ratings (while improving) are still very low. His Real Clear Politics Average is 45%... He has maintained his base but there is no evidence that he has expanded his base since being elected - and that was by only 105,000 votes across 3 states (Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin).
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His opponent will be far left unless the party leadership rigs it again. If they do your base will stay home.
 
#41
#41
BowlBrother85 said:
How about we wait and see who his opponent is first? Let's not forget that Trump's approval ratings (while improving) are still very low. His Real Clear Politics Average is 45%... He has maintained his base but there is no evidence that he has expanded his base since being elected - and that was by only 105,000 votes across 3 states (Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin).
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Obviously it will impact the odds but at this point it’s still likely. Even if by default
 
#43
#43
BowlBrother85 said:
A silly article in the sense that the general election is still 29 months away. So much can change that it's just not worth speculating. In March of 1991, just after the end of the Gulf War, George H.W. Bush's approval rating was over 65%. He only received 39% of the popular vote in his 1992 reelection bid just 20 months later... and he lost the electoral college by 202 electoral college votes ( which was 370-168 in Clinton's favor).

There are many variables here with Mueller's findings being among them. Also, what percentage of Americans outside of Illinois had even heard of Barack Obama on May 25, 2006? I follow politics pretty closely and I know that I hadn't.
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That is so true. Even his university classmates did not know who he was.
 
#44
#44
BowlBrother85 said:
How about we wait and see who his opponent is first? Let's not forget that Trump's approval ratings (while improving) are still very low. His Real Clear Politics Average is 45%... He has maintained his base but there is no evidence that he has expanded his base since being elected - and that was by only 105,000 votes across 3 states (Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin).
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You have to also consider who is answering the polls. Middle America pulled a okie doke on y'all in 2016. Keep up this line of thinking and abracadabra it happens again.
 
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#48
#48
All the DNC has to do is run a handsome young white man who speaks well, and has good hair.

Thats it. Theyd win.
 
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#49
#49
The Leftists could nominate Kamala Harris.

Her mother is Indian, her father is black, and her husband is white. Just imagine how the corrupt media would hype that rainbow candidate.
 
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#50
#50
Franklin Pierce said:
The Leftists could nominate Kamala Harris.

Her mother is Indian, her father is black, and her husband is white. Just imagine how the corrupt media would hype that rainbow candidate.
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Her ethnicity would be as much of a topic of conversation for cynical Republicans such as yourself, as it would be for her supporters... and before you deny that - you are the first to bring up the subject here.

...and it goes without saying, Trump would ask to see her birth certificate - her father being black and all.
 
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