There’s no position group on this 2017 Vols team more underrated than Running Back. The media views John Kelly as a below-average SEC back. Even here on the VN boards, I've heard many say that JK is not that special. While I don't think John Kelly quite rises to the level of "elite" SEC Running Back (right now, only Derrius Guice, Damien Harris, and a healthy Nick Chubb fit that description), I do think there's a strong statistical case that he's underrated and our rushing attack overall is being severely underrated by the media.
The Media Thinks We Suck!
First let’s see how the media is looking at RBs. The article linked below provides Fansided's RB rankings for each team's projected #1 Running Back:
Ranking the SEC's Running Backs
John Kelly is rated #12 out of 14. Ouch. Saturday Down South and SEC Country also posted the top 10 returning RBs in the SEC:
SDS: Top 10 SEC RBs in 2017
SEC Country: Top 10 SEC RBs in 2017
John Kelly did not make either list. Finally, Athlon ranked the SEC’s projected RB tandems:
Athlon: Rating the SEC RB Tandems
Tennessee is ranked a dismal #12. This is INSANE! Not only are we not the 3rd worst rushing team in the conference, but we’re easily in the top half.
The Statistical Case for John Kelly
First off, let's take a look at the stats for SEC Running Backs last season. I'm primarily focusing on two stats:
(1) Yards per carry, and
(2) Receiving yards per game
I’m also only evaluating games against Power 5 opponents. Cupcake games and even games against G5 teams often skew rushing stats. Some of the RBs the media is touting as putting up great numbers are racking up most of their yards against subpar competition.
Ranking the 2016 Running Backs
Using the criteria spelled out above, I’ve ranked 25 SEC Running Backs from 2016. John Kelly fares relatively well on yards per carry at 9th in the SEC. Also note that 4 of the RBs in front of him are now either in the NFL or at least through with college ball.
JK’s one weakness, however, is that he wasn’t a particularly prolific receiver. While JK and Alvin Kamara have similar YPC stats, Kamara was the #1 RB in the SEC (by a mile!) for receiving yards per game. I think you can make the case that Rawleigh Williams’ receiving yards should push him above JK in the RB rankings. For this reason, I have Kamara as the #3 SEC RB in 2016, with John Kelly as #11. You can see my 2016 rankings in the chart below:
Ranking the Returning SEC RBs
Four of the backs above Kelly have moved on (i.e. graduated or gone pro.) That would put Kelly at #7 for returning backs if we use straight-line logic. Except that there’s a very strong argument that Nick Chubb’s injury harmed his numbers significantly and that a healthy Chubb should be ranked much higher. Given that, I’d rate John Kelly as the #8 returning RB in the SEC.
(1) Derrius Guice
(2) Damien Harris
(3) Nick Chubb
(4) Damarea Crockett
(5) Sony Michel
(6) Trayveon Williams
(7) Bo Scarborough
(8) John Kelly
Practice reports suggest that Kelly has become better at catching the ball this offseason. That could add a pretty big dimension to his game. While we shouldn’t expect JK to suddenly look like Alvin Kamara, even if his receiving output increases from 3.6 yards per game to something like 8 – 10 ypg, that’s a big plus and could allow him to move further up these rankings, as well.
The New Recruits and Ty Chandler
We can’t merely look at the returning RBs. We also need to look at new RBs, including recruits.
247 Top Running Backs from 2017 Class
Alabama added the #1 rated RB in the nation (Najee Harris) and the #8 RB (Brian Robinson) for the 2017 class, while Georgia added the #4 back (D’Andre Swift). Our Vols added the #5 RB with Ty Chandler. Auburn added the #11 RB with Devan Barrett and Miss State adds the #14 RB with Kylin Hill. No other SEC team added a top 20 RB.
Ty Chandler is a true Freshman RB, so we don’t have good data on him yet. He is expected to be an immediate contributor given his high recruiting ranking. He rushed for over 2,000 yards at Montgomery Bell Academy in Nashville the past two seasons. The practice reports on Ty have also been extremely promising. Whether Ty can be a threat as a receiver, as well, remains to be seen.
Regardless, there’s a good case that Ty immediately walks into the SEC as a top 12 Running Back. Comparatively speaking, Ty was rated higher than #4 RB from the 2016 class, Devwah Whaley of Arkansas. The 2017 Running Back class was deeper than usual; if Ty had been in the 2016 class, he would’ve been the #3 rated RB. Based on this, Ty could easily turn into a top 5 RB in the SEC at some point; albeit, it may take a season or two.
Overall Team Rankings
Factoring in new Freshman, last year’s performance, improvement, and the such, I think you could argue we have a top 10 SEC back with John Kelly and Ty Chandler projects as being somewhere around #12 right now.
Ranking the SEC RB stables, here’s how I would go.
1. Alabama. Damien Harris, Bo Scarborough, Najee Harris, Brian Robinson. Bama is absolutely loaded at RB. Bama could lose its top 2 backs and not drop off that much, which you can’t say about two many teams in the NCAA.
2. Georgia. Nick Chubb, Sony Michel, D’Andre Swift, Elijah Holyfield. Georgia has been loaded at RB for a long while now. If Chubb is healthy, he’s one of the best RBs in college football. Sony Michel is also arguably a top 5 SEC Running Back. Then add highly-touted 5-star recruit D’Andre Swift and Elijah Holyfield, and you have one of the deepest, most talented backfields in college football.
3. LSU. Derrius Guice, Darrel Williams. Guice is a beast and may be the #1 Running Back in the SEC right now. Behind Guice there are more question marks. Darrel Williams is currently listed as the #2 as a Senior, and his stats are quite pedestrian. Nevertheless, if Guice remains healthy, there will be no problems with the LSU running game. If Guice suffers an injury, it’s tough to say what will happen with the LSU run game; is there another star waiting in the wings?
4. Texas A&M. Treyveon Williams, Keith Ford. Trayveon Williams comes off an impressive Freshman season averaging 6.9 yards per carry against P5 opponents. 2nd string Senior RB Keith Ford was not as impressive as Williams, but did put up about 5.0 yards per carry, which is around middle-of-the-pack for the SEC. A&M has a few other options, as well, including Kendall Bussey and Senior James White. Overall, A&M’s combo of a very good #1 RB, plus reasonable depth makes them #4 on the list.
5. Tennessee. John Kelly, Ty Chandler, Tim Jordan, Carlin Fils-Aime. The Vols don’t have the depth of Georgia or Alabama, or a superstar of Derrius Guice’s caliber, but we’re still ahead of most of the conference with a handful of very good backs. JK and Ty Chandler should give us at least 2 quality options. It seems as if Robert Gillespie found an underrated gem with 3-star Tim Jordan, who is going to provide some depth this season. We also have former 4-star recruit and Sophomore Carlin Fils-Aime. There’s no way we’re #12 in the SEC with what we have right now. Best case, we’re top 3 behind UGA and Bama. Worst case, it’s difficult to justify putting us anywhere further down than #7.
6. Missouri. Damarea Crockett, Ish Witter. Crockett put up some extremely impressive numbers as a Freshman last season, averaging 7.2 yards per carry against P5 opponents. Crockett was an unheralded 3-star recruit who has far exceeded expectations. Unfortunately for Mizzou, there’s a huge drop-off after Crockett. Ish Witter only averaged 4.4 yards per carry. Mizzou’s run game can be strong this season, but if anything happens to Crockett, it’s going to plunge down these rankings; possibly as far as #13.
7. Auburn. Kamryn Pettway, Kerryon Johnson , Devan Barrett. Similar to us, Auburn hasn’t had a true superstar emerge, but they have a stable of solid RBs, with some good depth. Pettway averaged a solid 5.5 yards per carry against P5 competition. While Kerryon Johnson’s numbers weren’t quite as strong at 4.5 ypc, he was one of the better RB-receivers in the SEC averaging 9.8 receiving yards per game. Devan Barrett is a 4-star recruit and could provide Auburn with some more depth this season. QB Jarrett Stidham may help take some pressure off the Auburn rushing attack, as well, providing more opportunities for Auburn’s RBs.
8. Miss State. Aeris Williams, Kylin Hill. Aeris Wiliams shows some promise, but behind him, Miss State might not have a lot of great options. That said, it may not matter much. The Miss State rushing attack is mostly going to come from QB Nick Fitzgerald, rather than the Running Backs.
9. Vanderbilt. Ralph Webb, Khari Blasingame. Easily the most overrated running attack in the SEC. Nothing against Ralph Webb, but the analysts love him because of his big yardage numbers that are being piled up largely because Vanderbilt doesn’t have a legit 2nd option. Ralph Webb is a top 15 SEC RB, but he is not “elite.” Even his yards per carry is propped up a bit because Vandy’s passing attack with Kyle Shurmur is the more dangerous part of the Vandy offense. Beyond Webb, there’s a pretty big dropoff. Khari Blasingame projects as the #2 RB and is rated #25 out of 25 in 2016 for the RBs I examined.
10. Kentucky. Benny Snell, Sihiem King. The media is really hyping up Kentucky this season. Ben Snell was a reasonable option as the #1 RB, but I have him rated as #15 in the SEC for last season, with 5.2 yards per carry against P5 competition. Junior RB Sihiem King had a great game against Tennessee last season, but has mostly played garbage time otherwise.
11. Arkansas. Devwah Whaley, David Williams. Devwah Whaley was rated #18 on my yards per carry stat, but he was one of the best RB-receivers in the SEC, averaging 10.7 yards per game. David Williams is looking like the #2 back; he’s a graduate-transfer from South Carolina. He only averaged 4.6 ypc total and this is inflated against weaker competition. The fact that Arkansas picked up South Carolina’s rarely used 3rd string RB for more depth suggests that the Hogs may have some weakness at RB.
12. Florida. Jordan Scarlett, Lamical Perine. I’m in the camp that thinks Florida is being overrated in the preseason. Part of my belief is based on the idea that the defense is losing a lot of superstars and it’s going to be difficult to replace that production. The other part is that I’m still not sold on Florida’s offense. Right now, Florida does not have a top 15 SEC Running Back on its roster. Scarlett’s 4.9 yards per carry puts him at 16th out of 20 RBs I analyzed from 2016. He’s also not a threat receiving. Perine is below Scarlett on the depth chart and only averaged 4.6 yards per carry. Florida adds two unheralded 3-star recruits at RB; while it’s possible they have a diamond in the rough somewhere, I have no reason to suspect that’s the case.
13. South Carolina. Rico Dowdle, Ty’Son Williams. Rico Dowdle rushed for 4.7 yards per carry against P5 competition last season. I have him rated as the #22 SEC RB for 2016. Behind him is North Carolina transfer Ty’Son Williams. Williams was a 4-star recruit who saw little action during his Freshman campaign at UNC.
14. Ole Miss. Jordan Wilkins, Eric Swinney. Ole Miss already had one of the weakest rushing attacks in the SEC last season and they lose their #1 and #2 rushers from last season. They will get Senior Jordan Wilkins back from injury. He put up good rushing numbers in 2014, OK numbers in 2015 but emerged as more of a receiving threat. Overall, however, I expect Ole Miss to be bad this season. Probably the worst team in the SEC and a weak running game will be merely one part of the problem. Not only would I rate Ole Miss dead last, but I also think there's a pretty big gap between them and the #13 team on RBs.
That's all, folks.
GBO!
