Over Signing and the attrition that follows.

#51
#51
ksgovols said:
I like the 30, 30, 30, 30 to get to 85. It's basically 20, 20, 20, 20 and 5 walk ons that are granted scholarships along the way.
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Except it's not possible to sign 30 year after year. Also, a football team pretty much always has 5 signing classes on hand due to redshirting.
 
#52
#52
Butch seems to be adding quality and quantity for the first few classes by over-signing his guys. I'm sure he figures that things will sort themselves out and the cream will rise to the top so to speak. I honestly think this is just what our program needed - a massive infusion of talent and guys who are all about Butch and this staff.
 
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#53
#53
Fullfillmer said:
I honestly can't think of anything less useful or more painful - perhaps a root canal or a meeting with an insurance agent. . I genuinely hate these threads particularly this time of year. I would be curious where u started - how many we would sign this year - weren't u around 16- 18 earlier this year ?
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Why did you click on it?
 
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#55
#55
LebanonVolunteer said:
Why? Because unless you space those guys out roster wise, they won't be around long. If you take 4 at once then just say i'll take 4 more in 2-3 years you will have a constant disaster on your hands.
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This assumes no redshirts are handed out. AND that we don't plan on recruiting QB's in 2016, 2017 etc.?

Your "calculations" are not realistic. From the beginning of recruiting season through national signing day you have some of the strangest ideas about who, how many, and when.

UT won't be selling early playing time next season. They will be selling a winning team that sends players into the pros. Kids will sign up for that (eg any perennial cfb powerhouse)
 
#56
#56
I think he is just flipping the roster, he's bringing in a large quantity of "his guys". I would hope that process will be complete after this year.

To be competitive in this conference you can't keep playing a lot of freshman. At some point you have to redshirt kids, especially on the LOS. Our roster will soon be loaded with upperclassmen and CBJ can really get down to the process of building quality depth.

We as fans are just too impatient to wait for it to be done any other way. CBJ knows he has to win and win sooner rather than later. He also has to look at the long term and I think this is just his plan to satisfy both the long and short term goals.
 
#57
#57
ntxVOL said:
I think he is just flipping the roster, he's bringing in a large quantity of "his guys". I would hope that process will be complete after this year.

To be competitive in this conference you can't keep playing a lot of freshman. At some point you have to redshirt kids, especially on the LOS. Our roster will soon be loaded with upperclassmen and CBJ can really get down to the process of building quality depth.

We as fans are just too impatient to wait for it to be done any other way. CBJ knows he has to win and win sooner rather than later. He also has to look at the long term and I think this is just his plan to satisfy both the long and short term goals.
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All the guys mentioned leaving were guys CBJ signed. They were "his guys".

Imo the biggest red flag is that while folks are pointing to "its normal attrition", and "losing a third of a class is par for every program", may be reasonable, seeing it happen before they are in the program a year is not. Sure, today losing say 10 of 30 fits the agreement. Problem is that class still has 3-4 years to go. Hopefully when the class is SRs, there is more than a handful left to enjoy the day.
 
#58
#58
LebanonVolunteer said:
All the guys mentioned leaving were guys CBJ signed. They were "his guys".

Imo the biggest red flag is that while folks are pointing to "its normal attrition", and "losing a third of a class is par for every program", may be reasonable, seeing it happen before they are in the program a year is not. Sure, today losing say 10 of 30 fits the agreement. Problem is that class still has 3-4 years to go. Hopefully when the class is SRs, there is more than a handful left to enjoy the day.
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What is the exact moment that you noticed that the sky was falling?
 
#60
#60
LebanonVolunteer said:
All the guys mentioned leaving were guys CBJ signed. They were "his guys".

Imo the biggest red flag is that while folks are pointing to "its normal attrition", and "losing a third of a class is par for every program", may be reasonable, seeing it happen before they are in the program a year is not. Sure, today losing say 10 of 30 fits the agreement. Problem is that class still has 3-4 years to go. Hopefully when the class is SRs, there is more than a handful left to enjoy the day.
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That's why he's "flipping the roster". Bring in a couple of large classes, expecting a high attrition rate, and you still have a good group left. It's hard work rebuilding a roster this way but it will also get the job done more quickly. The attrition is going to happen either way but this way you can cut all the fat.

I think you can expect to lose 10 more next year but he won't be able to bring in another 30. Doesn't matter, the attrition in the first couple of years are part of the plan. The 2016 team will be all "his guys" and the hardest part of the rebuilding process will be complete.

EDIT: The alternative is a 5 or 6 year rebuild...who here would wait that long?
 
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#61
#61
It hurt more in 2002 and 2003 when we were signing 22-25 guys a year and having a third of those guys not pan out and many of them never made it to Knoxville period. A lot of them 4 and 5 star guys.

It's a good exercise to go to Rivals and look at all those old classes and see how many never made a significant contribution. Maybe Butch is telling these guys, "I don't see you making a significant contribution" and they leave. It's not uncommon.

I'm not a huge believer in counting on freshmen to contribute every year and it's better to get a redshirt in there for most of the linemen and qb's. Still, I'm not opposed to filling the roster with what is needed for the next couple of years and then re-evaluating every year. Scholarships are only one year commitments that can be renewed or not.
 
#62
#62
ksgovols said:
Still, I'm not opposed to filling the roster with what is needed for the next couple of years and then re-evaluating every year. Scholarships are only one year commitments that can be renewed or not.
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FWIW, the NCAA rule passed last month essentially guarantees that a student-athlete's scholarship can't be withdrawn (i.e., not renewed) based solely on athletic performance.

This recent interview w/ Missouri's AD regarding the new changes is worth a read:
Alden on NCAA autonomy, cost of attendance : Sports

More on this:
Autonomy schools adopt cost of attendance scholarships | NCAA Home Page - NCAA.org
 
#64
#64
Some figures posted by LWS in the FF. Seems relevant here.
e):

2014

UK- 0, 0%
LSU- 0, 0%
VU- 0, 0%
Bama- 1, 4%
Aub- 1, 4%
UF- 1, 4%
UM- 1, 4%
TAM- 1, 5%
Ark- 2, 8%
MU- 3, 11%
MSU- 3, 13%
UGA- 4, 19%
USCe- 5, 24%
UT- 8, 25%



2013


LSU- 2, 8%
Aub- 2, 9%
Bama- 4, 16%
UK- 3, 13%
VU- 4, 15%
Ark- 4, 17%
UF- 5, 17%
MU- 4, 20%
UGA- 9, 27%
MSU- 5, 24%
USCe- 6, 29%
TAM- 10, 31%
UM- 9, 33%
UT- 8, 35%

Total players lost over the past two years:

Bama- 5
Ark-6
Aub- 3
UF- 6
UGA- 13
UK- 3
LSU- 2
UM- 10
MSU- 8
MU- 7
USCe- 11
UT- 16
TAM- 11
VU- 4
 
#65
#65
Ahhhhh...sweet refuge...lot of cobwebs in here tho. :ermm:
 
#66
#66
It's easily explainable. First year new coach, rushed NSD, kind of a scramble and balance of which Dooley recruits to keep, who else to target, and we need bodies. Second year we signed everyone and their brother, attrition was not only imminent, but blatantly evident to most. This year we got an average class size. If we are that high percentage-wise again next year I may be more concerned.
 
#67
#67
OddFuture said:
It's easily explainable. First year new coach, rushed NSD, kind of a scramble and balance of which Dooley recruits to keep, who else to target, and we need bodies. Second year we signed everyone and their brother, attrition was not only imminent, but blatantly evident to most. This year we got an average class size. If we are that high percentage-wise again next year I may be more concerned.
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VQ said they expect 22-23 or so additions in the 2016 class. That would indicate an expected loss of 7-8 or so "leaving the program". Imo, those figures keep UT near the top when it comes to attrition rates.
 
#68
#68
LebanonVolunteer said:
VQ said they expect 22-23 or so additions in the 2016 class. That would indicate an expected loss of 7-8 or so "leaving the program". Imo, those figures keep UT near the top when it comes to attrition rates.
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Right we're still in the process of getting a mostly competitive roster. Not all those kids leaving will be 2015 kids.
 
#70
#70
Check on the drop out rates at the service academies...I hope we can still field a military!

I also hope you get the analogy.
 
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#71
#71
I think all of us are a bit surprised at the attrition, but our roster situation was unique. CBJ inherited a very, very shallow roster, virtually void of SEC caliber talent. It was a mess, and we knew it. Consequently, he was forced to play players that were too young in too many positions. Also, I believe the staff were forced to ramp up the intensity of practices to try and get these kids ready to compete. I'm sure the intense force feeding and demands was what lead to players like Hendrix to leave. It was more like Marine boot camp instead of football camp. However, the coaches had no choice. Now that the roster is beginning to get deeper and more talented, you will see more of the traditional development of players. However, there are still a few players buried on the depth chart that will need to be moved out. It's the reality we face.
 
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#72
#72
LebanonVolunteer said:
Ya might want to wait on that. Had I said on NSD 2014 (8) would be out before NSD 2015 I'd bet you would have said no way.
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But we still have 24 kids from that class. I think that should be the focus. How many kids did the other schools get in these cycles? And how many are really trying to flip their roster to a championship level talent?

I agree that I didn't expect as many leaving, but if they do not want to compete, I do not want them influencing the locker room. Eventually we will have 20 kids +/- 3 and we will have a full roster of players.
 
#73
#73
LebanonVolunteer said:
Ya might want to wait on that. Had I said on NSD 2014 (8) would be out before NSD 2015 I'd bet you would have said no way.
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I would have, but in all fairness if I said Derek Barnett would have his stats and Hendrix would ride pine because he just wasn't that good as a frosh you would've said no way. If I said that Vic Wharton would get upset over PT when he started 3 (?) games and transfer you'd say no way. A few other situations could be said.

Btw only 7 transferred right?
 
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#74
#74
OddFuture said:
I would have, but in all fairness if I said Derek Barnett would have his stats and Hendrix would ride pine because he just wasn't that good as a frosh you would've said no way. If I said that Vic Wharton would get upset over PT when he started 3 (?) games and transfer you'd say no way. A few other situations could be said.

Btw only 7 transferred right?
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I'll usually lean toward the instate guy all things being equal. Hendrix and Barnett were pretty equal coming in Imo. You'll notice I feel the same way in recruiting. I'll always rather we take the instate guy when possible.
 
#75
#75
LebanonVolunteer said:
I'll usually lean toward the instate guy all things being equal. Hendrix and Barnett were pretty equal coming in Imo. You'll notice I feel the same way in recruiting. I'll always rather we take the instate guy when possible.
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I think you missed his larger point, plus Vic is an instate guy too.
 
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