Let's Clear Some Stuff Up- An Overview

[ALLVOL 4LIFE]

100% discussion. This is my outsiders take. I haven't had "inside information in years and even then it wasn't great. Knew about the black jerseys on Halloween night the week of. Friends sister worked as admin for staff in Fulmer through dooley years but never got much but tidbits

10/4 really was a good read. Thanks for taking the time to put it together. I spoke to a former player today and all he could say there is nothing anyone can say to him to make him understand why things are going like they are. He said it's just really hard to digest our past two games.

 

[VOLINVONORE]

P6

Where do we stand to hire a coach as of today?

IMO, and that of about everyone except our own fanbase it seems, we're in a very strong position and if we don't even ATTEMPT to make a strong move now then our leadership is telling the fans it wont ever do so again. If this happens then what is the point for fans to pour financial resources into the program? It's my strong opinion that this will be one of the most important decisions in deciding the future of our program. The wrong move here and you will lose fans to apathy, they will put less money into the program, and AD will risk losing a lot of fans from younger generations that have never gotten to experience great TN football.*

Why the TN job is attractive and we're in good position to make a strong move:

Money Hyams made a lot of incorrect statements about the money situation just to get clicks and posting "$25M" is definitely click bait, if he believes what he wrote then I'd hate to see his financial situation because he doesn't understand money. The total buy-out of Butch and staff will be around $10M. Shoop has no buy-out and everyone's buy-out is off-set by any jobs they may take. If we hire a sitting HC then him and his staff will have a buy-out (lets say $2-$5M). So total UPFRONT costs would be around $12-$15M. It doesn't matter what they make down the line, for one their cost is off-set by what we would have paid Butch for the same period, and nobody gets their salary paid upfront in a lump sum. The same is actually done for the buy-out, we count them as upfront costs here but in reality they are paid over incrementally over time.

Further, TN is not poor. Yes, reserves aren't where we want them. No.2 in the COUNTRY in revenues we obviously have one of the strongest support bases in the country. Revenues are tied to merchandise sales with Nike, winning = more sales. Big bowl games give bonuses ($2M for Sugar Bowl for example). We could do a full financial analysis to examine why winning big in football helps both the AD and academic side of the University but to sum it up, it has been proven at numerous schools, spending money on a top coach that wins big is a financial boon for the school. TN has gotten greedy because the fans have supported the University just as much but without the success. This business model can't last forever and we are starting to see those cracks. If TN doesn't commit financially then the fanbase will stop doing the same.

Weak east: as discussed previously, a good coach is smart enough to put himself in a good situation. Think long and hard, has the East ever been so ripe for domination? The SEC is the best conference with the most money, and the historically weak east provides a clear path for a great coach to dominate and reap all the rewards that will come from playing in SECCG's and premier bowls (money, recruiting, prestige, etc)

Talented roster: Strong balked because of our roster, that won't happen this time. Butch has done a good job of getting talent on campus and has a strong class lined-up. There will be attrition with a change both in the incoming class and on the current roster but a great coach should have no issues holding it together. With a projected 14-15 starters returning, we will have talent for a good coach to challenge for the east on day one.

-Recruiting: The life blood of any program. In-state talent gets stronger by the year. With moderate success Butch has proven TN, like it always has, can still recruit with the best in the country. Win big and TN can pull to 5 and 10 classes, been proven time and again.
*
Brand: Butch, again, has done a good job os re-establishing the brand of TN. It will never go away, we are one of the strongest, most recognizable brands in college football. That hasn't changed but due to increased recent success by Butch, the perception of TN football is that we are close to being good. Everyone sees we've had the opportunity to be the best team in the east the past 3 seasons, we're on the cusp and if the fans and media see that then a good coach does too. It's an opportunity.

When we hired CBJ, money was an issue and income was no where near as high as it is now. The SEC contract with ESPN( SEC channel) has generated a lot of money for all SE teams. However, attendance to Tennessee football has also increased since CBJ has been at Tennessee. He has the programs in the best shape it has been in almost 9 years I see two areas where the roster needs to improve immediately, QB and LB. We will not win big until those positions regardless of the coach.

 

[VOLINVONORE]

Think you are misunderstood. "Kelly" is in reference to Chip Kelly as in the former Oregon coach and NFL 49ers and Eagles coach. Not Brian Kelly who is currently at Notre Dame.

In that case it is even more of a problem.

 

[midtnvol2]

Why did Cowher, Lovie Smith, Muschamp, Gary Patterson, Charlie Strong, Chris Peterson, butch Davis not come here after we reached out to them??
If others were interested, then why did we end up with our tenth choice in 2010, in Dooley and our tenth choice in 2013 with bUTch????
The same thing happened when Pearl was released.. None of our top nine choices wanted the job, so we ended up with Martin. The night we got Martin, I remember hearing it on the radio and I said to my son "Who the hell is that?" ...........

Cowher?? He wasn't and isn't a serious candidate anywhere and wasn't back then either. Lovie Smith same as Cowher not a serious candidate. Muschamp thought he was inline for the Texas HC job and wasn't leaving.Peterson wasn't leaving the western US and won't. Patterson I think was interested, but he and Fulmer were friends and Patterson had zero respect for Hamilton and he fired Fulmer. He wasn't going to work for Hamilton. Charlie Strong I don't remember what was up with him back then.

 

[GRN1926]

It mostly opinion...Strong turned down Tennessee and then a year later took the Texas job and they were ion at least as bad if not worse shape...

Strong knew he would have better offers than Tennessee...that's why he turned the Vols down.

Texas had/has an easier path to success. Weaker conference, better in-state recruiting, easier schedule, etc. He saw there would be better situations but I only think they were considered better offers because of the state of TN football after Dooley. We had a conference usa roster and had the hardest schedule in the country for like 3yrs straight.

 

[Sarms58]

Texas had/has an easier path to success. Weaker conference, better in-state recruiting, easier schedule, etc. He saw there would be better situations but I only think they were considered better offers because of the state of TN football after Dooley. We had a conference usa roster and had the hardest schedule in the country for like 3yrs straight.

Texas wasn't open yet but the writing was on the wall...but Strong was in a great position at Louisville - he had nothing to gain coming to Knoxville. His name was coming up for every job...

He was the third guy to turn us down...I'm not convinced we would be a more popular choice if we dump Butch right now...best to have a good plan place...

 

[GRN1926]

This has been a really informative thread in my opinion. Sometimes you have to look back and see where you've been before you look forward and try to figure out where we should go.

OP what us your opinion? You think he stays or goes? No it's not a trick and I won't hammer on you. Just wondered how you see it playing out.

To me, it doesn't look like Butch can take this to the next level. He's got few more games to try though. I think we all want him to succeed. But the short answer, I think Butch will either leave on his own accord or be let go, TN hasn't been sitting in this good of a position for a coaching hire since 2008.

There are a lot of variables at play though and it's a tough situation for Currie. He makes the wrong move in his first year as AD could eventually cost him his job. What if:

- Butch wins enough to argue keeping him but you're losing fan support? Can't afford to have an 80% occupancy in Neyland through 2018

- Currie knows Butch isn't the guy but isn't confident he can get anyone significantly better. Do you keep Butch and try again in 2018 by letting the young crop of coaches season for a year? What will this mean financially for 2018?

- are the boosters willing to pony up some cash to help make the move?

- is he confident Davenport and the BoT will support a big hire? Who has the final say there.

 

[GRN1926]

Texas wasn't open yet but the writing was on the wall...but Strong was in a great position at Louisville - he had nothing to gain coming to Knoxville. His name was coming up for every job...

He was the third guy to turn us down...I'm not convinced we would be a more popular choice if we dump Butch right now...best to have a good plan place...

Strong was in a great spot, L'ville AD is really good too. Texas is always going to be considered a better job due to its in state recruiting and program wealth. We're in a much stronger spot today than 5yrs ago and are an attractive job imo. It seems to be the same from all the talking heads around the country as well. I hope Currie has a great plan in place and support from boosters and the bot, if not then I guess it will just be the same old song and dance which, imo, will be a significant blow to the future of the program and athletic department. Much will be lost

 

[Skizer41]

To me, it doesn't look like Butch can take this to the next level. He's got few more games to try though. I think we all want him to succeed. But the short answer, I think Butch will either leave on his own accord or be let go, TN hasn't been sitting in this good of a position for a coaching hire since 2008.

There are a lot of variables at play though and it's a tough situation for Currie. He makes the wrong move in his first year as AD could eventually cost him his job. What if:

- Butch wins enough to argue keeping him but you're losing fan support? Can't afford to have an 80% occupancy in Neyland through 2018

- Currie knows Butch isn't the guy but isn't confident he can get anyone significantly better. Do you keep Butch and try again in 2018 by letting the young crop of coaches season for a year? What will this mean financially for 2018?

- are the boosters willing to pony up some cash to help make the move?

- is he confident Davenport and the BoT will support a big hire? Who has the final say there.

I agree. I just hope IF CBJ leaves of his own accord the timing doesn't screw us.

 

[GRN1926]

I agree. I just hope IF CBJ leaves of his own accord the timing doesn't screw us.

Thats a good point too. If he wins say 8 games and wants to leave to save face will it happen amicably, can't let him put us in a bad spot there and have kiffin 2.0. Doubt that happens though

 

[vik]

P5

Butch - Let's discuss a bit of this backstory real quick.

[ . . . S-N-I-P . . . ]

As a side note, it should be recognized that Butch is being judged by not achieving the goals his own success has created. He was charged with rebuilding the roster and making TN competitive again, we all knew going in that even if he couldn't win big if he could at least get us back go competitive then he would be considered a success. MISSION ACCOMPLISHED. So please, let's not just kick the guy on the way out the door if that is what happens. He has done TN a huge service, yes paid well for it, but he took us off like support.

Sorry to hear that. Because of this, I gave you a like.

 

[Volhoops]

Butch has shown two things. H

 

[Volhoops]

Oops hit wrong key. Butch has shown two things. He can recruit and he has no ability to coach or lead the talent. Dooley for all of his faults and there were many was still a better x-o coach than Butch.

 

[livefaith]

We were in a mess after the Phil decline and Kiffin flight in the night. Hamilton got owned and the Vols paid dearly. Dooley and Jones were prayers from a position of weakness financially and among top coaches looking at the mess.

 

[40Cap]

To be clear I'm not calling for Jones' head in this post. Just addressing some, what I feel, are misunderstandings about TN's ability to hire a coach and what has happened with past hires.

To answer your question, yes. Chip Kelly, and I know it's hotly debated if he would be successful, but he would be considered by everyone in the country to be a homerun hire. Saban, Meyer, Harbough level type hire from a perception level. He's the only guy that I would consider to be labeled "homerun". There are other guys out there that I think would be labeled excellent hires.

I know I'm in the minority here, but I would not consider CK a home run hire. He had success at one job ( a job w/ umlimited resources, by the way). In the few years since he left (under an NCAA cloud,fwiw) the type of offense he ran has been somewhat exposed. Many teams run similar O's now, and college DC's have figured that O out, to an extent. He had suspect recruiting methods, and was hard to get along w/ at his 2 NFL stops. I think throwing Saban, Meyer, Harbaugh type $$ at him would be a mistake. I could care less about perception, and care a lot more about finding the right person. What makes him such a home-run?

 

[FlintstoneGAVol]

Good stuff OP, thanks

 

[GRN1926]

I know I'm in the minority here, but I would not consider CK a home run hire. He had success at one job ( a job w/ umlimited resources, by the way). In the few years since he left (under an NCAA cloud,fwiw) the type of offense he ran has been somewhat exposed. Many teams run similar O's now, and college DC's have figured that O out, to an extent. He had suspect recruiting methods, and was hard to get along w/ at his 2 NFL stops. I think throwing Saban, Meyer, Harbaugh type $$ at him would be a mistake. I could care less about perception, and care a lot more about finding the right person. What makes him such a home-run?

There's some arguing points against Kelly. I think he would KILL here and will do another overview of him, Oregon's offense, and why I think so but basically it comes down to i don't feel his offense is a gimmick and the basis of the success of his offense is for the DC's to know what he is doing. He wants them to know.

Oregon is 900 miles from their closest hot bed of recruiting, 900 miles and he still had top 10 and 12 classes. To me that's impressive. The ncaa stuff is blown way out of proportion, it was nothing and they admitted as much.

Most great coaches are a-holes, they're alpha's and have a job were EVERYONE thinks they know better. To this day Nick Saban and Bill Belicheck still get questioned, it will never end. I wish there was another TN guy like Phil out there, win on the field and kissing babies off but there's not. Chip Kelly would be an assassin, our hired gun and I'm ok with that. Just win baby

 

[superdave1984]

Very interesting reading in this thread. And shockingly no ranting...

Anyway, I wonder if perhaps the direction needs to be altered to maybe keep Butch and change the staff. I thought Shoop was supposed to be the best thing since sliced bread. He hasn't been for whatever reasons. Scott...well that isn't working out all that great either.

Maybe keep Butch and his ability to recruit, but pony up for the best OC and DC in the country. And allow them to do what they are hired to do.

 

[jasonvol18]

I know I'm in the minority here, but I would not consider CK a home run hire. He had success at one job ( a job w/ umlimited resources, by the way). In the few years since he left (under an NCAA cloud,fwiw) the type of offense he ran has been somewhat exposed. Many teams run similar O's now, and college DC's have figured that O out, to an extent. He had suspect recruiting methods, and was hard to get along w/ at his 2 NFL stops. I think throwing Saban, Meyer, Harbaugh type $$ at him would be a mistake. I could care less about perception, and care a lot more about finding the right person. What makes him such a home-run?

Taking the other side on CK.He did more with lesser talent. Oregon is not easy to recruit to and will rarely finish in the top 10. They on average will hover between 15-25 with an occasional 11-12 and 29-31. He could assemble a better staff here and have much better talent to coach on a consistent basis. He would need to hire a staff that knows the south and how to recruit it. Much different walking into a home in the deep south and convincing a Mom,Dad,Grandmother to trust you with their kids life for 3-5 yrs. As opposed to going into homes on the left coast.

 

[jasonvol18]

Very interesting reading in this thread. And shockingly no ranting...

Anyway, I wonder if perhaps the direction needs to be altered to maybe keep Butch and change the staff. I thought Shoop was supposed to be the best thing since sliced bread. He hasn't been for whatever reasons. Scott...well that isn't working out all that great either.

Maybe keep Butch and his ability to recruit, but pony up for the best OC and DC in the country. And allow them to do what they are hired to do.

Unfortunately on the offensive side in particular Butch isn't gonna bring in a big name OOC because they would want full control of the offense and that's not happening under Butch. Not sure why our D continues to struggle we have some well respected guys on that side of the ball.

 

[BornAndRaisedVOL!]

Totally agree. We have all wanted Butch to succeed, I think if you polled TN fans we would still say the same today. Win 9-3 or 10-2 and we're good.

Does Butch want to stay though? Brent Hubbs openly acknowledge Jones inquired about Purdue job last year. Purdue can't be used for leverage for more pay by TN, that doesn't work. Hired Sexton this off-season. Some smoke on that side as well.

Anyone sniffing around for another HC gig at a lower tiered school while at a storied program like UT is clearly not 100% committed. I don't care if he still works 80 hours a week, he's looking for a way out and he's probably not giving 100% to the current task at hand.

When you're being paid millions of dollars, even being 98% committed is unacceptable. He needs to go, and the sooner, the better.

 

[SouthFLVol]

I've been lurking on here for many years, read many posts, and have never posted anything. This is one of the best threads I've read and there seems to be researched and level-headed conversation. Well done OP.

 

[1SmokinVol]

So why did people turn us down this time? To the point, it was because we had a TERRIBLE roster.

roster maybe - more that the Admin at UT sucked- and coaches did not want to get involved with a school that had Mike Hamilton and then Dave Hart as AD's-

 

[livefaith]

Thats a good point too. If he wins say 8 games and wants to leave to save face will it happen amicably, can't let him put us in a bad spot there and have kiffin 2.0. Doubt that happens though

Even if the timing was the same I don't see that happening. A lot of big-time coaches would love to have the situation that Jones is built right now. The cupboard is not bare like it was before.

 

[finn]

roster maybe - more that the Admin at UT sucked- and coaches did not want to get involved with a school that had Mike Hamilton and then Dave Hart as AD's-

Completely agree on Hamilton's poor job but why does Hart catch so much grief? He took over a mess and completely turned it around financially. He did have to make some unpopular decisions from a fan perspective (i.e...lady vols) but they were absolutely sound biz decisions. His hires haven't been home runs but, as OP details very well, there were some ext/int forces that limited options.

UTAD went from hemorrhaging money to 2nd best revenue during his tenure. That alone out to earn the guy some credit.