Going for 2 Points

#77
#77
We had the mojo. We lost but not by bad coaching. Remember how mad we were last year? Very different feeling.
 
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#78
#78
armchair said:
Jones has no balls and every week he shows us again that he has no balls. Hell, yea, you go for it. You make a yard, you have a huge chance of winning the game! You're trailing by 14 with 3.5 minutes left, and suddenly you can win the game by getting a yard? Even with 40 seconds left, no brainer for me. The only question would be, do you run the ball up the middle or go wide with Dobbs. Of course Jones made the safe call--he always does.
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Im glad you're not our coach.

Now time to put you on ignore!
 
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#80
#80
We had all the mo mo heading into OT. Their defense was gassed. It was the definitely the right call by Butch.
 
#81
#81
I'm behind the coach and his decision.

Having said that, there's no "wrong" choice here.

There are four variables in the calculation:
-- the chance of making a 1-point conversation (around 99%);
-- the chance of making a 2-point conversation from 1.25 yds (around 50%);
-- the chance of UGa marching the field to score and win in 0:41 (unknown);
-- the chance of winning in OT (say 50%, though that may not be true).

One of those variables is a red herring: UGa is going to use the 0:41 to try to win the game regardless of whether we've tied them or gone ahead by a point. So it doesn't really play in the calculations.

That leaves a 99% chance and two roughly 50% chances. So we either flip a coin on a single play (2-pt conversion) or we flip a coin on overtime.

You can literally run the numbers either way and the odds of us winning the game are pretty much equal, whether you go for one to tie (and overtime) or go for two to win.

~ ~ ~

Not going to argue gnat's butt differences in odds here. Not going to pole vault over mouse droppings as to whether it's a 50% or a 60% chance to convert from the 1.25 yard line ... nor over whether one team had a measurable advantage over the other in OT (we had momentum...but A&M had fewer losses to injury...???).

Any of that can be true, but it's all ultimately unknowable.

Butch has his finger on the pulse of this team in a way that no one else does, not even his own coordinators. Far better than any of us on the outside, TV commentators or fans in the stands.

So I'm gonna back the coach. And I would have, whichever way he decided.

Go Vols!
 
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#82
#82
GVol1966 said:
Yankee_Vol said:
99% of coaches go for 1 there after trailing all game.
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And the 1% that have the balls to go for 2 are hall of famers!
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No, only half of that 1% are hall of famers. The other half are unemployed. :)

It's a flip of the coin. You live or die by it, if you choose to gamble.


p.s. By the way, plenty of hall of famers among the 99%, too. You don't have to be a one-shot gambler to be an excellent football coach.
 
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#84
#84
I would have gone for it myself. At some point we will HAVE to go for it. Might very well be next weekend. I thought it showed doubt in our team. Butch didn't want it to be an "all or nothing situation" on the road, but guess what? It WAS an all or nothing situation. I would have let Dobbs keep it myself. He would have won the game. I think NOT going for it lost the game myself, but Butch is afforded a few hard mistakes at this point. He's earned it. I'm not going to trash him for it. He needs to understand though, with the team being as thin as it is, taking it into overtime hurt us.
 
#85
#85
Roustabout said:
after the penalty, you go for two on the road. defense was gassed. I was for it.

I mean they gave him half distance to goal, so 1.5 yards with Dobbs.
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I have always heard, "Go for the tie at home and the win on the road". So I was thinking go for 2. Especially after the penalty.

But I was fine either way. No issues with decision at all.
 
#86
#86
The odds aren't 50/50 from the 1+ yd line in a game where you are doing what you want offensively..to not go f 2 after a penalty is almost always bad strategy..but butch is no dumber than all the other coaches that screw up every week..

The end of the half was ridiculous..by running out the clock he is saying that the odds of a&m scoring there are better than ours which is absurd
 
#87
#87
RICK0380 said:
1st of all proud of our boys and coaches for not giving up.... now when we scored and they jumped offsides on the extra point with 40 seconds left... I felt we should have gone for 2pt conversion then. We killed them up the middle all game long and John Kelly could have punched it in I believe. It's in hindsight now...but I was screaming it at the TV when it happened. What do you guys think? I will hang up and listen.haha
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We should not even have been in that position. We had all the momentum to go into OT. Kicking the extra point was probably the smarter decision. If we had not gotten the 2 pt conversion, people would be losing their minds right now about how bad a call that was.
 
#88
#88
jakez4ut said:
I didn't have an issue either way. We talked about it where I was, and ultimately in a game like that, give yourself a chance to win as long as you can.

The int was just a bad throw.
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Pretty much where I was. It should have been discussed but its hard to fault that decision. I actually felt like we were in the better position going into OT.
 
#89
#89
We are too thin to be going into over time on purpose and I think you guys are absolutely wrong about "people would have been upset if we had gone for it and not gotten it." If we had gone for it and lost by 1 point or 4 points nobody would have faulted him. We gave it our all. Chances are better than 50/50 in my eyes Dobbs could have scored at will at that point. You put the ball in the hands of you're best play makers to make plays when the game is on the line, and it was. As it is we lost by 7 and good chance that game would have propelled us into the playoffs. If this season comes apart you will be able to point your finger at that moment.
 
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#90
#90
I'll place a wager if he finds himself in that position next season he will go for it. It took him three years to go for it in fourth and yards. He makes mistakes but he learns. Like I said, there's no reason to trash the guy, but next time you find yourself in an "all it nothing" spot for the game... go for it.
 
#91
#91
I think he should have gone for 2 especially after that penalty. Over time is tough sledding on the road.
 
#92
#92
Tennessee defense gassed. Offensive ran for 320 yds. Surely they can gain a yard and a half....Coaches generally play way too conservatively at the wrong time (remember Florida and Oklahoma)...then in overtime Dobbs throws a horrible interception...
 
#93
#93
armchair said:
Jones has no balls and every week he shows us again that he has no balls. Hell, yea, you go for it. You make a yard, you have a huge chance of winning the game! You're trailing by 14 with 3.5 minutes left, and suddenly you can win the game by getting a yard? Even with 40 seconds left, no brainer for me. The only question would be, do you run the ball up the middle or go wide with Dobbs. Of course Jones made the safe call--he always does.
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No way you go for two. One more point is meaningless if they make a field goal, and if you don't score on the two point play you lose regardless.
 
#94
#94
Hell, forget that, I was pissed we didn't go for it on 4&1 in overtime. Especially with the way we were running the football.
 
#97
#97
As someone mentioned before, if they would have went for two and failed people would be complaining he didnt play for overtime
 
#98
#98
Going for 2 might have been a good choice, and I do believe a good number of fans would of supported that. However, if they go for 2 and don't make it there would of been a total melt down. Every negavol would of called for CBJ'S head.
 
#99
#99
I felt it. But I absolutely don't blame them. Probably not the right thing to do
 
#100
#100
RICK0380 said:
1st of all proud of our boys and coaches for not giving up.... now when we scored and they jumped offsides on the extra point with 40 seconds left... I felt we should have gone for 2pt conversion then. We killed them up the middle all game long and John Kelly could have punched it in I believe. It's in hindsight now...but I was screaming it at the TV when it happened. What do you guys think? I will hang up and listen.haha
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I had the same thought. Then, I woke up and came to my senses. No way you go for 2 in that situation.....ever.
 
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