I think the percentage play after the offsides penalty is to go for two, and here's why: even if you don't get it, the game's not over. You can still onside kick, with 40 seconds left, and one timeout, if memory serves. So you have two chances to win the game: probably better than 50/50 making the 2 point conversion from a yard and a half, and then an additional 15% chance that you recover the onside kick (college onside kick success rate is about 20%), move into field goal range, and Medley kicks the game winner as time expires.
I get the arguments for kicking the extra point, although you have to account for the fact that extra points aren't 100% successful: could have been a bad snap, could have been blocked. Yes, at that point, we had the momentum, we have the superior kicker, etc. On the other hand, we're walking wounded and we're on the road. Overtime is a crapshoot. If you tell me we have a better than 50/50 chance to win the game after the offsides penalty, one play, do or die, in a game that we really had no business having a chance to win given the turnovers and penalties, I'm taking that chance.