Final Four run

#55
#55
bleedingTNorange said:
I would take 9-9, SEC is a tough league this year, would still likely be tourney bound.
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The SEC is not impressing out of conference. Auburn and MissSt have good records but have played a weak schedule. UF and Vandy have looked pedestrian. UK has played perhaps it's weakest preconference schedule in my lifetime.

As I said, I predict UT will regress and come back to their competition much like last year.
 
#57
#57
bleedingTNorange said:
Unlike in years past there truly are no gimmies like in years past in league play.
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No gimmies for sure, but I think we are better than most teams on our schedule.

And we have favorable home games this year against harder SEC competition: A&M and UF.
 
#58
#58
Roustabout said:
The SEC is not impressing out of conference. Auburn and MissSt have good records but have played a weak schedule. UF and Vandy have looked pedestrian. UK has played perhaps it's weakest preconference schedule in my lifetime.

As I said, I predict UT will regress and come back to their competition much like last year.
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Actually, the SEC has been kicking butt out of conference. What are you looking at??
 
#59
#59
Here is how I see conference play, this is just my opinion based on what I've seen:

Should win (12): vs. Auburn, @ Vandy, @ Mizz, @ SCar, vs. Vandy, vs. LSU, vs. Ole Miss, vs. SCar, @ UGA, @ Ole Miss, @ Miss St, vs. UGA
Toss-up (4): @Ark, vs. UK, @Bama, vs. UF
Should lose (2): vs. A&M, @UK

I think we drop 1-2 "should win" games, win half of the "toss-ups", and win 1 we "should lose".

That would leave us at 13 wins in conference.
 
#60
#60
VEKZY said:
Here is how I see conference play, this is just my opinion based on what I've seen:

Should win (12): vs. Auburn, @ Vandy, @ Mizz, @ SCar, vs. Vandy, vs. LSU, vs. Ole Miss, vs. SCar, @ UGA, @ Ole Miss, @ Miss St, vs. UGA
Toss-up (4): @Ark, vs. UK, @Bama, vs. UF
Should lose (2): vs. A&M, @UK

I think we drop 1-2 "should win" games, win half of the "toss-ups", and win 1 we "should lose".

That would leave us at 13 wins in conference.
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Any away game is a Toss up especially at Mizzu and Miss state

At Ark and at Bama are should lose games


A&M at home is a toss us


Imo
 
#62
#62
I don't think that winning four straight in an NCAAT is unattainable. Cuonzo and Bruce came within a basket of doing that. This team will get better over the next couple of years and has already demonstrated that they can play with anybody.
 
#63
#63
Vol Kilmer said:
we need defensive PG play. Joel Berry did whatever he wanted versus our D sunday.

that's a deal-killer in tourney.

and Darrington really shouldn't be getting minutes. he dribbles, penetrates, doesn't shoot, turns the ball over.

and Bowen has got to look to score more. he disappears way too much.

BUT, I love this team! Gonna be a lot better next year. Simons would kill it on the wing, and as a pure scorer for this team.
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Darrington is just now getting his feet wet. He's had an injury that set him back. Barnes is just now comfortable that his defense has advanced enough that he's earned playing time. It takes a little time to adjust to the speed at this level. He'll be fine once his confidence level is elevated.
 
#64
#64
BruinVol said:
Any away game is a Toss up especially at Mizzu and Miss state

At Ark and at Bama are should lose games


A&M at home is a toss us


Imo
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A&M is much better than Arkansas, Missouri, Bama, and Mississippi St. They are likely the best team in the SEC.

I think you over estimate the home court advantage for some of these teams.
 
#65
#65
Roustabout said:
The SEC is not impressing out of conference. Auburn and MissSt have good records but have played a weak schedule. UF and Vandy have looked pedestrian. UK has played perhaps it's weakest preconference schedule in my lifetime.

As I said, I predict UT will regress and come back to their competition much like last year.
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SEC as a league is ranked 2 or 3 by just about every service, you can try and discredit it but that’s not accurate.
 
#67
#67
VEKZY said:
Here is how I see conference play, this is just my opinion based on what I've seen:

Should win (12): vs. Auburn, @ Vandy, @ Mizz, @ SCar, vs. Vandy, vs. LSU, vs. Ole Miss, vs. SCar, @ UGA, @ Ole Miss, @ Miss St, vs. UGA
Toss-up (4): @Ark, vs. UK, @Bama, vs. UF
Should lose (2): vs. A&M, @UK

I think we drop 1-2 "should win" games, win half of the "toss-ups", and win 1 we "should lose".

That would leave us at 13 wins in conference.
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Auburn is a projected NCAAT right now, that’s no gimmie. Missouri is playing very well and that’s at their place, can’t say that’s a gimmie either. UGA is playing decent ball, at their place, also don’t see that as a gimmie. Add in that most teams will drop 1 or 2 you wouldn’t expect in league play and I have a really hard time seeing this team winning 12+ SEC games.

JMO
 
#68
#68
VEKZY said:
A&M is much better than Arkansas, Missouri, Bama, and Mississippi St. They are likely the best team in the SEC.

I think you over estimate the home court advantage for some of these teams.
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Agreed A&M is best team in SEC. at home it's a Toss up.
 
#69
#69
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Darrington is just now getting his feet wet. He's had an injury that set him back. Barnes is just now comfortable that his defense has advanced enough that he's earned playing time. It takes a little time to adjust to the speed at this level. He'll be fine once his confidence level is elevated.
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Wish they would those developmental minutes to Pons but I’m a Yves homer.
 
#70
#70
bleedingTNorange said:
Auburn is a projected NCAAT right now, that’s no gimmie. Missouri is playing very well and that’s at their place, can’t say that’s a gimmie either. UGA is playing decent ball, at their place, also don’t see that as a gimmie. Add in that most teams will drop 1 or 2 you wouldn’t expect in league play and I have a really hard time seeing this team winning 12+ SEC games.

JMO
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I don’t think they are gimmies. I just think we have the advantage.

Let’s say should win is a 3+ point favorite in my mind, toss up between +2 and -2, should lose is a 3+ point underdog.

As I said, I expect us to drop a couple “should win” games.
 
#71
#71
zjcvols said:
Wish they would those developmental minutes to Pons but I’m a Yves homer.
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I'd consider Darrington's minutes to be more like adapting. He's already played 2 years. Pons is way behind developmentally. Plus TN uses a 2-4 guard rotation and only has 6 or 7 that could fill the need so Darrington's participation is more critical IMO.
 
#72
#72
VEKZY said:
I don’t think they are gimmies. I just think we have the advantage.

Let’s say should win is a 3+ point favorite in my mind, toss up between +2 and -2, should lose is a 3+ point underdog.

As I said, I expect us to drop a couple “should win” games.
Click to expand...

Using your above definition and Sagarin’s predictor...

Favorites:(10) Aub, @Vandy, Vandy, LSU, OM, USC, @UGA, @OM, @MState, UGA
Toss up:(5) UK, A&M, @USC, @Bama, UF,
Underdogs:(3) @Ark, @Mizz, @UK
 
#73
#73
ESPN Power Index currently projects us with a 20-10 record (11-7 SEC) with a 21.5% chance to win the conference, 4th best in the conference behind A&M (29%), Arkansas (24.5%), and Florida (22.4%).

Next closest is Auburn (13.3%), UK (11.3%), and Missouri (11%).

They must think Bama (18-13, 9-9 SEC, 5.3%), Mississippi State (20-11, 8-10 SEC, 1.4%), and LSU (15-15, 6-12 SEC, 0.1%) are fool's gold.

The Power Index also projects us as a 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
 
#74
#74
bleedingTNorange said:
Using your above definition and Sagarin’s predictor...

Favorites:(10) Aub, @Vandy, Vandy, LSU, OM, USC, @UGA, @OM, @MState, UGA
Toss up:(5) UK, A&M, @USC, @Bama, UF,
Underdogs:(3) @Ark, @Mizz, @UK
Click to expand...

Thanks for the info. I must say I am proud that I got 14/18 (77.8%) right without using any outside predictors/rankings.

With my original prediction, I still think we win 10+ games. I'd say I expect 11.
 
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