Finebaum: For TN A Bowl Game Would Be Impressive

[1TheCoach1]

Here is how I look at the schedule:

Three for sure losses
Alabama
Auburn
Georgia

Five definite wins
ETSU
Charlotte
UK
Vandy
UTEP

Four toss up games
WVIR
Fla
Mizzou
SCar

My thinking is that a 6-7 win season is the target and should be viewed as a successful first season. Eight or more regular season wins is an overachievement and portends to very good things in the future. A 5 win season would be a major disappointment.

My thinking is we should target to win every single game we play. For some reason people think we have no talent and just aren't capable of winning games. We had over 80 missed games due to injury last season and we get most of those players back this coming season. There is no reason why we shouldn't be able to compete. I believe anything less than 8 wins is a letdown. I personally think we can win more. People counting Georgia as an automatic loss even though Georgia is losing 31 seniors and 14 starters. That doesn't include the juniors that will declare.

 

[jakez4ut]

My thinking is we should target to win every single game we play. For some reason people think we have no talent and just aren't capable of winning games. We had over 80 missed games due to injury last season and we get most of those players back this coming season. There is no reason why we shouldn't be able to compete. I believe anything less than 8 wins is a letdown. I personally think we can win more. People counting Georgia as an automatic loss even though Georgia is losing 31 seniors and 14 starters. That doesn't include the juniors that will declare.

i think most of the predictions have a little to do with the talent, or at least the depth of talent...but for me the larger issue is the 'year 1' factor.

just so much needing to come together. new staff, new players, new schemes, new s&c, new everything.

it's lot that has to come together for a team to have the chemistry needed to know everyone is on the same page at all times, so that situational football becomes situations to be taken advantage of vs. a question mark.

lots of unknowns.

believe the future is very bright though. may have to take a lump or two this season. of course, if the chemistry issue gets mostly solved, you may see a few early bright spots.

who knows.....

 

[1TheCoach1]

i think most of the predictions have a little to do with the talent, or at least the depth of talent...but for me the larger issue is the 'year 1' factor.

just so much needing to come together. new staff, new players, new schemes, new s&c, new everything.

it's lot that has to come together for a team to have the chemistry needed to know everyone is on the same page at all times, so that situational football becomes situations to be taken advantage of vs. a question mark.

lots of unknowns.

believe the future is very bright though. may have to take a lump or two this season. of course, if the chemistry issue gets mostly solved, you may see a few early bright spots.

who knows.....

Jake, I believe you nailed it by saying "unknowns". I think there is a lot of under valuing going around with people because of unknowns. I simply look at what we have and then I look at the scheme changes. Running a pro style offense should help the offensive line out tremendously. That is or should be an instant upgrade just in scheme. I will say the defense is going to be a little more complex with the packages being ran out of the 3-4 set and especially with the 2 down linemen set in Pruitt's system. I believe he is going to put the right players in the right places and we will see a lot more speed on the defensive side of the ball. Byrd switching to defense was a first sign indicator for me. No more wasting talent on the bench like Butch did. Jakob Johnson comes to mind. I really am expecting good things.

 

[jakez4ut]

Jake, I believe you nailed it by saying "unknowns". I think there is a lot of under valuing going around with people because of unknowns. I simply look at what we have and then I look at the scheme changes. Running a pro style offense should help the offensive line out tremendously. That is or should be an instant upgrade just in scheme. I will say the defense is going to be a little more complex with the packages being ran out of the 3-4 set and especially with the 2 down linemen set in Pruitt's system. I believe he is going to put the right players in the right places and we will see a lot more speed on the defensive side of the ball. Byrd switching to defense was a first sign indicator for me. No more wasting talent on the bench like Butch did. Jakob Johnson comes to mind. I really am expecting good things.

well that's one thing that gives me a little more hope...he's actually been know to make fairly instant impacts on defense, because he has generally come in and simplified things. you hear some of those players at UGA, when he got there, and that's one of the first things you hear about "he keeps it simple".

i actually think the defensive scheme will probably be an easier transition (communication, vocabulary etc...) than we may think. i think the biggest issue on defense is simply adjusting the personnel to the scheme.

that's always a tough proposition.

anyway, it's just like last year, at least in terms of "if we answer most of the unknowns with positive answers, then it could be a better than expected season, if we don't, it could be pretty 'meh' type of season"

we won't know till they lace 'em up.

 

[EZE]

West Virginia wasn't supposed to be very good this season. They lost most of their skill position talent from '15 and nearly their entire two-deep on defense. Most preseason previews had them as a five or six win team. Next year they return 16 starters and will be ranked in the preseason top 10-15.

Yes, it is so funny to see fans of our 4-8 team overlooking any team, especially that one. WV will not be a great team, but it will be a good to very good team with a returning QB who can actually play the position.

Can we win that games? Yes. But, we will have our hands full and could easily get blown out.

 

[87&91ALUM]

I believe the spring game and injury status around June timeframe will be very telling. If the injured heal up well, if there is a lot of energy in the spring, give it a positive feel, I am pulling for 7-8 wins. If we can't feel some obvious holes on O and D lines, Jennings and TK Jr aren't coming back. Maybe 6 wins a realistic goal.

 

[hexnut]

Pruitt will try his best to win them all. He will give his best in each game. That's the best all of you can ask him to do.

 

[05_never_again]

you know there's a time when you look at a schedule like that and you'd say anything less than 9 wins would be ultra disappointing.

we're not there obviously.

but in looking at a path for success...the WVU and FL games early are key. and i think both should be winnable. neither team just absolutely scares me, not like AUb, Bama and GA anyway.

you close the season with 5 of the last 6 inside state borders, against teams that anyone would consider "winnable", save Bama.

i look at that schedule and put the over/under at 7.

Yep. I say put it at 6.5/7 because Tennessee really should win at least 6 games. What's the toughest game out of that batch of 6 "should wins?" Mizzou at home? C'mon, we gotta win at least 6.

There will be growing pains but this roster Pruitt is inheriting is much better than the roster Dooley or Butch inherited. There are talented guys at a variety of positions because Butch recruited pretty well.

 

[orangeluvr]

Well at least Pruitt is capable of making ingame adjustments , remains to be seen if Helton can do the same with the 'O'.

 

[Wishbone]

7-5, or worse case 6-6. We should go bowling. Finebaum is interested in only one thing and that is ratings. He will say anything to rile people up and keep his name in print.

 

[swampfoxfan]

Why are we supposed to think 5-6 wins is good? it got CBJ fired and hated on. And I have no respect for finebaum or what he thinks.

 

[TheSpartan]

For a team that was 0-8 in the SEC last year and having just hired Pruitt, the Vols would be lucky to go to a bowl game.

Considering reality it's hard to argue this.

Find 6 wins in that schedule. Go ahead, give it a shot.

Wrong.

 

[vettefool]

Start of
4-0
Lose 3 Straight
4-3
Win the last 5

9-3

The very best we could hope for. Really optimistic to beat w. Va., s.c.e., mo., ky, Or vandy based on last year and average at best q.b. Maybe a real q.b. Will appear.

 

[volfannbama]

Vandy returns 10 starters from a sh*tty 5-7 team. That’s a pretty good start. Kentucky returns a decent amount of starters, but from a team that seriously underachieved last season. Butch owned Mark Stoops, Butch Jones. Three out their four meetings were blowouts. I mean hell last season UT outplayed the best team that Stoops has had, in Lexington, and would have won if they hadn’t thrown up all over themselves.

Yeah, we all heard how they were definite wins last year too. Lol

 

[Vfl2407]

Why are we curling up in the corner over a WV team that got blown out by a .500 Utah team in a bowl and only beat 2 teams with winning records. Anything short of 7-5 will be a disappointment. We rolled over and played dead in the second half of games this season and I hope and believe new staff fixes that.

WVU Qb...former Gator...didn’t play vs Utah.
He will be fully heeled vs us.

 

[JonGrudensAgent]

They lost by 9 points combined to KY and SC last season. It's not like either of those teams are juggernauts.

The team pretty well quit against MO and Vandy. It's not like either of those teams are head and shoulders above the Vols.

ETSU, UTEP, and Charlotte should be definite wins.

Florida is a mess and they are breaking in a new coach as well. WVA isn't exactly a premier program and finished 7-6.

Scraping 6 or 7 wins together out of that schedule shouldn't be that difficult if Pruitt is worth his salary and can get the team to buy in.

 

[Glocker_Alum_2005]

Bottom line, if we can get some decent play form the OL and QB (JG plays up to his 4/5 star rating), we could win 8 easy. If not, we wills struggle to win 6.

 

[05_never_again]

Why are we supposed to think 5-6 wins is good? it got CBJ fired and hated on. And I have no respect for finebaum or what he thinks.

I don't think I or anybody else here is saying 5 or 6 wins is "good" per se. Especially not relative to Tennessee's historical standing as a program. I think 6 wins is a fair baseline expectation for next year given the schedule, the fact that we have a first-year head coach in his first head coaching job, the roster we have returning, and the fact that we went 4-8 (0-8) last year.

Anything over 6 I think would be considered a pretty good year; anything under it a disappointment.

If Pruitt is an overachiever and makes obvious strides in his first year, I do see as many as 8 wins. I don't expect 8 wins though.

 

[jasonvol18]

For a team that was 0-8 in the SEC last year and having just hired Pruitt, the Vols would be lucky to go to a bowl game.

Considering reality it's hard to argue this.

Find 6 wins in that schedule. Go ahead, give it a shot.

We easily get 6 wins. Finebaum has no clue about half the stuff he says. If Butch can get 5 wins his first season with the dumpster fire he inherited JP definitely should. We should win all 4 OOC games but at the very worst go 3-1. We will beat UK,Mizzou and Flor at home. And will win in Nashville. Again at the very least go 3-1 in those 4. That's a floor of 6-2 in those 8 but most likely 7-1 or 8-0. We obviously lose to Ala, GA, AU and S.Car can go either way. And before someone brings up Mizzou, their 6 game win streak when Drew played so well was against 6 non bowl teams. Not one of Mizzou's 7 wins was against a team who reached a bowl. That's almost impossible to do.All 5 regular season losses were against bowl teams. No reason to lose that game at home. UK is losing their top 2 QB's and doubt they win more than 6 next year. Vandy sucked and is losing their best offensive weapon in Ralph Webb. FL will most likely be breaking in a True FR and we will be his first road start. Flor is in the exact position we are in with starting over in New schemes. We have the advantage being at home. 6 wins should be with relative ease and 7-8 wins is definitely possible. Those aren't unreasonable expectations at all. It's more unreasonable to think we lose to Vandy a 3rd straight year and UK and Mizzou back to back years and at home. If Butch was here then absolutely. No we aren't gonna win the East, not gonna beat GA, Ala or Sun nor will we win 10 games. But it's just asinine for Finebaum or anyone else to think we aren't atleast a 6 win team at the absolute worst. It's not like any of those 6-8 I think we win are top 15 teams or teams who will be fighting for a conference championship.Just simply going off returning players and 4 year's of recruiting rankings only Ala, AU and GA have the higher average ranked recruiting class in that span. So 9 of our 12 opponent's have less talent if recruiting rankings are as important as everyone says. Which they usually are. Then factor in how recruiting finishes up this year. This 4-5 win talk or not getting bowl eligible next year talk is even more crazier than the 10-2 crowd. Even Dooley got bowl eligible his first year with that $hit roster. And that schedule makes our 2018 schedule look like a bad non power 5 schedule.

 

[MR_VOL]

Personally, all things considering---the 2018 schedule, players lost for whatever reason, and all things, circumstances, and people connected with the 2017 season, I would be happy with a 6 - 6 record and being bowl eligible.....anything above 6 - 6 would be very welcomed.

 

[jasonvol18]

They lost by 9 points combined to KY and SC last season. It's not like either of those teams are juggernauts.

The team pretty well quit against MO and Vandy. It's not like either of those teams are head and shoulders above the Vols.

ETSU, UTEP, and Charlotte should be definite wins.

Florida is a mess and they are breaking in a new coach as well. WVA isn't exactly a premier program and finished 7-6.

Scraping 6 or 7 wins together out of that schedule shouldn't be that difficult if Pruitt is worth his salary and can get the team to buy in.

Exactly. The how do we get 6 wins talk shouldn't even be a discussion. The how can we get to 8 wins is a better conversation piece. If Dooley and Kiffin could get bowl eligible their first year with what they had to work with then this shouldn't even be much of a discussion. Butch's first year even he got to 5 and if not for bad coaching he could have beaten GA and definitely should have beaten Vandy. Both Dooley and Butch's first year included Oregon and Kiffin's first season had an SEC that only had Vandy and Miss St not bowl eligible. Also played 2 #1 teams that year. Both Lane's and Butch's we're top 6 SOS. I guarantee we don't end up top 6 SOS next season. The 4-5 wins at most talk is 100 times more crazy than the 10-2 talk.

 

[jasonvol18]

Personally, all things considering---the 2018 schedule, players lost for whatever reason, and all things, circumstances, and people connected with the 2017 season, I would be happy with a 6 - 6 record and being bowl eligible.....anything above 6 - 6 would be very welcomed.

Sad thing was you could tell Butch lost that team and players after the Fla game. That loss began the spiral. Yet somehow we were 3 plays away from 3 more wins and being 7-5 plus a bowl. Then we are sitting here with Butch as our Coach. Same thing happened with Fla. Nobody with any football IQ could honestly think both TN and Fla have 4-5 win talent. Both Coach's lost their team fairly early. Our on and off the field issues clearly showcased that. Any half a$$ coach could have gotten TN and Fla to atleast 6 wins last year. But when players quit on coach's and on each other it makes things look a million times worse than they really are.

 

[TNinSC]

SC is no longer a given. Even the recent wins have been too close for comfort

 

[Matt2496]

I have a gut feeling we're going to do better this year than what most people think.

South Carolina's 2015 season was even worse than ours last year. If Will Muschump can turn around USCjr from 3-9 to 6-6, I know Coach Pruitt can do at least that or probably more.

 

[jasonvol18]

West Virginia wasn't supposed to be very good this season. They lost most of their skill position talent from '15 and nearly their entire two-deep on defense. Most preseason previews had them as a five or six win team. Next year they return 16 starters and will be ranked in the preseason top 10-15.

They were close they were a 7 win team. But that just shows what good QB play can do. W.Va doesn't win 5 games this year without Grier transferring in and playing as well as he did. Nobody could have predicted that.Iowa St was their only good win but even then they caught them right after upsetting a top 5 TCU team. I will be shocked if W.Va finishes ranked and better than 8-4. And if Grier gets injured early in the year they won't win more than 5. They struggle against the faster,more physical teams. I would worry more if Grier could beat you with his arm or legs. They won't have to spy him and worry about him gashing us with his feet. Their topreceivers aren't big guys either. Their D was one of the worst in the country too. Really think it's a good match up for Us. Grier also can be turnover prone as well. I would take opening against W.Va over Ga Tech any day. W.Va won't do anything Pruitt and Sherrer haven't seen a hundred times.Teams that love to out physical and wear you out with the run game could be who we have the most issues with. Atleast until we become a bigger, more physical and better tackling team. I've never seen a TN Defense be as bad at tackling and taking wrong angles to the ball as we have been the last few years.Except for our Sunseri experiment year.