Finebaum: For TN A Bowl Game Would Be Impressive

[sgacock]

When I look at this schedule, I see 7 regular season wins. I see ETSU, Charlotte, UTEP, Kentucky, Missouri, Vandy & South Carolina.
My reasoning for that is because
# 1. We will be better coached and the games we lost due to poor coaching will be fixed. Games like Kentucky & South Carolina & Florida. The players are better IN SPITE of lack of player development. #2. Game philosophy Pruitt will coach differently. For instance, passing on the 5 yard line 3 straight plays vs Florida.

Not saying you will not win 7. You might.
Not saying you won't beat SCar. You might.
I'm saying that counting SCar as a win is being overly optimistic. We should be in the tossup column.

Neither your fan base nor ours need to put the other in the win column. The teams are 3-3 the last 6 years with last year's six point MOV being the "blowout." Those six games have been decided by an average of 3.33 points. A bit more than a field goal.

You could say that one play has separated the teams for the past six years.

Not a game I would bet on either way. Upsets on both sides. (Yeah, I'm still butthurt about 2013 :cray

Ten years:

'17 SCar 15-9
'16 SCar 24-21
'15 Tenn 27-24
'14 Tenn 45-42
'13 Tenn 23-21
'12 SCar 38-35
'11 SCar 14-3
'10 SCar 38-24
'09 Tenn 31-13
'08 SCar 27-6

Prior history = Vol Domination.

Of course, whether ten years or twenty, history don't block or tackle.

 

[Vol0725]

Can we pull an upset in 2018 (@ Auburn, @ Georgia, vs Alabama) ?

 

[VolTexas]

Why do we have arguably the strongest schedule in the NCAA every single year, makes absolute zero sense for a rebuilding program.

It helps recruiting if you want players who want to compete against the best.

If you want players who want to dodge Alabama because they don't like to compete, then choose another SEC east team.

It helps recruiting.

 

[HooahVol]

Can we pull an upset in 2018 (@ Auburn, @ Georgia, vs Alabama) ?

I just don't think we will be deep enough. We might make them sweat for a half but then they will start putting in the fresh legs. To win in the SEC you almost need to be three deep at this point.

 

[Vol0725]

I just don't think we will be deep enough. We might make them sweat for a half but then they will start putting in the fresh legs. To win in the SEC you almost need to be three deep at this point.

100% agree, fresh legs quality depth...

 

[Vol0725]

Why do we have arguably the strongest schedule in the NCAA every single year, makes absolute zero sense for a rebuilding program.

Our East competition avoids Bama...

Florida doesn't play Bama.
Georgia doesn't play Bama.
South Carolina doesn't play Bama.

 

[Vol0725]

Pretty brutal schedule. I think we start 3-0. Lose 5 straight, then win our last 4. I think we'll finish 7-5

it's brutal, indeed...very few coaches in Power 5 history come into a down program and turn it around their first year...7-5 in regular season is very good, historically speaking.

 

[ftsandersvol]

For a team that was 0-8 in the SEC last year and having just hired Pruitt, the Vols would be lucky to go to a bowl game.

Considering reality it's hard to argue this.

Find 6 wins in that schedule. Go ahead, give it a shot.

Here is what I see as a road to get to a bowl game:

ETSU, UTEP, Florida, Charlotte, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt.

 

[ftsandersvol]

Our East competition avoids Bama...

Florida doesn't play Bama.
Georgia doesn't play Bama.
South Carolina doesn't play Bama.

It's not that they are avoiding Bama...the East has a rotation schedule with the West teams. TN plays Bama every year due to our rivalry.

Given the playoff selections in the recent past, I have stated we should end our yearly match-up with Bama, accept a loss only to the eventual SEC East Champ, and enter the playoffs as an 11-1 team without having to play in a conference championship game.

Worked for Ohio State and Bama.

 

[Sin City Vol]

13-0 trip to the playoffs and a rematch with Bama in the NC game!!!!

 

[jasonvol18]

I'm not even sure he didn't screw up Year 1 game against UF. Remember starting Peterman in the swamp and then asking him to continue passing??

We weren't winning that game with Worley or Peterman. Nate got thrown to the wolves that game and had 2 Int's. But Nate wasn't why we lost that game. Worley wasn't much better he had 2 Int's himself and we had 2 fumbles also. Hard to beat anyone on the road with 6 turnovers. The offense only scored 10 of the points and got an int for a TD. The only TD the offense scored was in the 4th when the game was over. That was the only year under Butch that Flor had the better team.

 

[jasonvol18]

UF won’t be that good.

Mullen is liable to lose games he’s supposed to win. He’s good for that.

UGA & Bama are for sure losses.

WVU is a toss up as well but I think we win a close one.

I think we beat UK, SC, & Missouri.

Agreed! Think AU is also a for sure loss.

 

[jasonvol18]

ETSU,UTEP,Charlotte,Kentucky,Mizzou and Vanderbilt. Six without a sweat. SC and Florida, most likely without an upset and WVA without any shock. Nine with no stretch of reality needed.

I agree with you that 9 games are winnable with 3 guaranteed losses. I think we lose 1 out of the 3 vs W.Va, Flor and S.car..I'm going with losing to SC but that game is down to the wire every year and could go either way.We have no business losing to Fla at home. They most likely will be breaking in a True FR QB in his first road game in a hostile environment. If it was in Gainesville I would give the edge to Fla.

 

[jasonvol18]

Yep. I say put it at 6.5/7 because Tennessee really should win at least 6 games. What's the toughest game out of that batch of 6 "should wins?" Mizzou at home? C'mon, we gotta win at least 6.

There will be growing pains but this roster Pruitt is inheriting is much better than the roster Dooley or Butch inherited. There are talented guys at a variety of positions because Butch recruited pretty well.

Mizzou should be a win at home. A new PC/QB coach who has never been either is a coach is a head scratcher for Mizzou. Don't let Mizzou's 6 game win streak and Drew's run fool you. That win streak and all 7 wins vs against teams who didn't make bowls and all had losing records. Then they get to a bowl vs an average 6-6 Texas team and get boat raced. That offense was completely shut down by Texas. It's almost impossible to be 7-5 during the season, playing in the SEC and not beat 1 bowl team. It was very misleading until you break down their schedule. 7-0 vs non bowl teams..0-6 vs bowl teams.

 

[checkerboards09]

I’m not saying Florida is going to be great by any means, but I do think the arrow is pointing up, and I think the roster is going to be much improved. I think the Florida turnaround has a chance to be much faster (possibly next year) than Tennessee. Martez Ivey and Cece Jefferson coming back for Senior seasons and not to the NFL is HUGE. Additionally, it looks like some key suspended guys from last year will be back; Jordan Scarlett and linebackers James Houston and Ventrell Miller provide key depth that UF was missing last year.

The only impact players Florida loses are Taven Bryan on the d-line and Brandon Powell at slot receiver. Everyone else is back, including the entire o-line first and second team. Totally loaded at DE with Cece, Zuniga, Polite and a couple of 5-star kids waiting in the wings (Carter and Clayton).

Every LB on the team is back, everyone from the secondary is back.

I think UF goes 8-4, 9-3, I think UT goes 6-6.

UF is not 3 games better than UT this year.

 

[zeppelin128]

It's not that they are avoiding Bama...the East has a rotation schedule with the West teams. TN plays Bama every year due to our rivalry.

Given the playoff selections in the recent past, I have stated we should end our yearly match-up with Bama, accept a loss only to the eventual SEC East Champ, and enter the playoffs as an 11-1 team without having to play in a conference championship game.

Worked for Ohio State and Bama.

UT, and Bama for that matter, will not let that happen. It is a streaky rivalry. When we start winning again everyone will change their mind.

 

[DiderotsGhost]

I’m not saying Florida is going to be great by any means, but I do think the arrow is pointing up, and I think the roster is going to be much improved. I think the Florida turnaround has a chance to be much faster (possibly next year) than Tennessee. Martez Ivey and Cece Jefferson coming back for Senior seasons and not to the NFL is HUGE. Additionally, it looks like some key suspended guys from last year will be back; Jordan Scarlett and linebackers James Houston and Ventrell Miller provide key depth that UF was missing last year.

...

I think UF goes 8-4, 9-3, I think UT goes 6-6.

Dan Mullen was a great hire, but I still think you guys are going to suck next year. No offense. About the only advantage you all have over us is that you have an easier schedule. No Alabama. No Auburn. LSU under Orgeron is much more beatable than Auburn with Jarrett Stidham. You might end up with a better record due to lower SOS, but I don't know that you'll have the better team.

Losses: Georgia
Opponent Favored: Florida State, Miss State, LSU
Toss-Ups: South Carolina, Tennessee, Mizzou
Favorite: Kentucky, Vandy, Colorado State
Easy Wins: Charleston Southern, Idaho

You all have a less "polarizing" schedule than us, so I do think you have a higher ceiling in the Wins column, but I envision Mullen at Florida being the classic "big jump in Year 2" rebuilding job. If I had to guess, I'd pick you all to be maybe 7-5 or 6-6, almost exactly the same as us.

 

[jasonvol18]

Our East competition avoids Bama...

Florida doesn't play Bama.
Georgia doesn't play Bama.
South Carolina doesn't play Bama.

Florida still plays LSU every year and GA plays AU( who beat GA and Ala). Why would we wanna take the easy way out and not play Ala? When we were running off our streak against Ala I didn't hear either fanbase wanting to end it.

 

[jasonvol18]

It's not that they are avoiding Bama...the East has a rotation schedule with the West teams. TN plays Bama every year due to our rivalry.

Given the playoff selections in the recent past, I have stated we should end our yearly match-up with Bama, accept a loss only to the eventual SEC East Champ, and enter the playoffs as an 11-1 team without having to play in a conference championship game.

Worked for Ohio State and Bama.

Ala isn't the only team in the West we can't beat. We have lost something like 12 straight vs SEC West Teams. So either way that's 2 West losses and 1 East loss based off this theory. Not getting into the playoffs like that. I would take a lot more satisfaction in beating them and it will happen again. It's been a rivalry of streaks forever.