With College Football Playoff change looming, a 12-team model leads the way

#76

bamawriter

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#76
In 2019 South Carolina only defeated 3 SECe teams, Kentucky Vanderbilt and Georgia. Georgia on the other hand defeated, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Kentucky, Florida, and Missouri from the East.

So a 4-8 USCe still doesn't make it into an SEC playoff over an 11-1 Georgia in this scenario.
You're not following the scenario.

Again, in the scenario there are 4 divisions of 4 teams, and only the 3 division games count. If USCe's 3 SEC wins had come against the division*, then they go to the SEC playoff over 11-1 Georgia.

* @sjt18 didn't indicate who he'd add to the SEC to get to 16 teams, so obviously there are some variables at play. A division of UGA, USCe, UK, and Vandy seems unlikely, but not impossible. But even in a scenario wherein Vandy or Kentucky was outside of the division, a USCe team with a 2-1 division record would win the tiebreaker over a UGA team with the same division record.
 
#77

sjt18

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#77
You're not following the scenario.

Again, in the scenario there are 4 divisions of 4 teams, and only the 3 division games count. If USCe's 3 SEC wins had come against the division*, then they go to the SEC playoff over 11-1 Georgia.

* @sjt18 didn't indicate who he'd add to the SEC to get to 16 teams, so obviously there are some variables at play. A division of UGA, USCe, UK, and Vandy seems unlikely, but not impossible. But even in a scenario wherein Vandy or Kentucky was outside of the division, a USCe team with a 2-1 division record would win the tiebreaker over a UGA team with the same division record.
And deserving teams are denied their shot EVERY YEAR now. UCF immediately comes to mind. They were undefeated AND had beaten the team that had beaten both Bama and UGA.

You are presenting a very unlikely scenario. It would be an anomaly.... while ignoring things that are already happening with the current system. Those problems won't be resolved by simply adding more teams and giving more power to pollsters.
 
#78

sjt18

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#78
In 2019 South Carolina only defeated 3 SECe teams, Kentucky Vanderbilt and Georgia. Georgia on the other hand defeated, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Kentucky, Florida, and Missouri from the East.

So a 4-8 USCe still doesn't make it into an SEC playoff over an 11-1 Georgia in this scenario.
In my example, the only games that would count toward putting a team in the conference playoff was their divisional games. I don't see any other way of factoring out the advantage/disadvantage of strength of schedule. If UT, USCe, Vandy, and say WVU made up one division... it wouldn't promote the "best team" if UT were to play Bama and UF while USCe played Arkansas and UK.

However, it would be possible for a team to go 3-0 in division and then 0-5 vs the rest of the conference.... extraordinarily unlikely but possible.

Bamawriter seized on a very unlikely scenario to oppose a system that would require the champion to actually earn it by winning a division then a conference and then a BCS playoff. It also wouldn't punish the fairly common scenario where a team improves greatly over a season and is as good or better than teams selected by biased voters and committees.
 
#79

BeardedVol

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#79
In my example, the only games that would count toward putting a team in the conference playoff was their divisional games. it would be possible for a team to go 3-0 in division and then 0-5 vs the rest of the conference.... but extraordinarily unlikely.

Bamawriter seized on a very unlikely scenario to oppose a system that would require the champion to actually earn it by winning a division then a conference and then a BCS playoff. It also wouldn't punish the fairly common scenario where a team improves greatly over a season and is as good or better than teams selected by biased voters and committees.
I wouldn't be for relegating the entire 12 game season down to only having 3 meaningful games, but a scenario where the entirety of FBS is reorganized and Georgia ends up in a division with Vandy, Uk, USCe, just seem pretty far out there.
 
#80

sjt18

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#80
I wouldn't be for relegating the entire 12 game season down to only having 3 meaningful games, but a scenario where the entirety of FBS is reorganized and Georgia ends up in a division with Vandy, Uk, USCe, just seem pretty far out there.
I didn't mention how they would be divided. Maybe it would be time to demote Vandy and promote a team like UCF?

All games are meaningful. The other games would be no less "meaningful" than Bama's game with UT has been for the last how many years?

You can improve on what I said without doubt. Maybe have two 8 team divisions and enter the top 2 into the conference playoff?

But my basic want is a champion that is decided on the field and not by sports writers and biased pollsters.
 
#81

Rickyvol77

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#81
We'll just have to agree to disagree. Nothing will ever change until the NCAA changes the playoff structure. Under the current structure, group of 5 programs will continue to flounder and power 5 programs will continue to prosper.
I don't see how giving the smaller schools an automatic bid to playoffs does anything for them other than give them more money they didnt deserve
 
#82

BeardedVol

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#82
I didn't mention how they would be divided. Maybe it would be time to demote Vandy and promote a team like UCF?

All games are meaningful. The other games would be no less "meaningful" than Bama's game with UT has been for the last how many years?

You can improve on what I said without doubt. Maybe have two 8 team divisions and enter the top 2 into the conference playoff?

But my basic want is a champion that is decided on the field and not by sports writers and biased pollsters.
You'd still be relegating 8 conference games down to only 3 with any meaning. If you wanted a playoff scenario in each conference, it would be better to leave the conference split into wo divisions, and then take the two 2 from the east and west, and have them play in a playoff series before the championship.
 
#83

sjt18

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#83
We'll just have to agree to disagree. Nothing will ever change until the NCAA changes the playoff structure. Under the current structure, group of 5 programs will continue to flounder and power 5 programs will continue to prosper.
Nothing changes until the system allows the champion to be determined on the field. No matter what you do to expand or reshape the current system... it will always fail on the biases of those who select the participants.

Frankly... I dislike a lot of sports media people and don't like that they have that power.
 
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#84

sjt18

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#84
You'd still be relegating 8 conference games down to only 3 with any meaning. If you wanted a playoff scenario in each conference, it would be better to leave the conference split into wo divisions, and then take the two 2 from the east and west, and have them play in a playoff series before the championship.
Yeah, I mentioned that possibility. Have two 8 team divisions and let the top two enter the conference playoff.... one vs two and two vs one. Again, my main goal would be to have the champion determined on the field.
 
#85

bamawriter

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#85
And deserving teams are denied their shot EVERY YEAR now. UCF immediately comes to mind. They were undefeated AND had beaten the team that had beaten both Bama and UGA.
Give me a break. If they'd beaten Auburn before the CFP was determined that result might actually mean something. As it was they beat an Auburn team that had just missed out on a CFP bid and could not possibly have given less of a crap.

You are presenting a very unlikely scenario. It would be an anomaly....
It literally happened 2 years ago. But if you want to argue it's a one-off, then your proposal is still terrible.

There's a reason that no sports league, college or pro, determines its playoff access by division record. There are too few games within a division (with the sole exception of this Covid-impacted season in the NHL). It would be a bad idea if college football were to do it now when teams are playing 5 or 6 division games. You're arguing that teams should play what amounts to a 3 game season in order to determine access to the postseason. That is stupid at a fundamental level.
 
#86

bamawriter

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#86
I wouldn't be for relegating the entire 12 game season down to only having 3 meaningful games, but a scenario where the entirety of FBS is reorganized and Georgia ends up in a division with Vandy, Uk, USCe, just seem pretty far out there.
Again, make Vandy or UK an out of division game and USCe still holds the tiebreaker over UGA.
 
#88

bamawriter

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#88
Newsflash: Alabama, Ohio State, Georgia, Oklahoma, and Clemson will still be in every championship game.

The entire structure is broken. A larger playoff field won't change things.
Why do I keep seeing UGA on this list? They've made 1 CFP Title game (and 1 CFP period). That's no better than LSU and Oregon. Probably worse than LSU, since LSU actually won.
 
#98

UTK

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#98
I think 8 is the perfect number. Said it a million times. 5 power conference winner. The best group of 5 team, and that still leaves 2 at large spots for the "who's in" drama. Anything above 8 just really feels like it could ruin the regular season. College football is unique by still having the best/most important regular season in any sport.
 
#99

GreyWolf1129

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#99
Go back to an 11 game regular season, with the conference championship game (if they play one) being #12. Then a 16-team playoff. The P5 conference champs; G5 conference champs, and the next 6 highest-ranked teams based on the BCS model. Seed all teams based on the BCS model. #1 -v- #16, #2 -v- #15, etc. The first round (8 games) is hosted by the higher-ranked team. The remaining 7 games are played at a rotation of the 7 biggest bowls (whole 'nother debate there). Rotate the bowls "up", so that the #2 bowl this year gets the championship next year, and so forth. #1 drops back to #7 next year, and starts the long climb back to the championship game.

So the national champ and runner-up play 16 games, which is exactly one more game than now (in most cases). The teams that make it to the semifinal round play 15 games, which is where they are now. The rest play 14 or 13 games. The teams that don't make the playoff, but get a bowl, play 13 games. Not a huge change from where we are now. By giving up one regular season game, it makes the remaining 11 that much more important. And in the end, any and every team that had any argument at all that they deserved "a shot" will make the field. Didn't win your conference, P5 or G5? No big deal, if you were good enough to be ranked in the Top 16 at the end of the season. Didn't make the Top 16? Then that means you were not in the top 12% of the FBS. Work on that "Football GPA", and maybe we'll see you next year...

I think UTK's post (above) is the more likely compromise. I don't like a 12 team field. It gives an edge to the first 4 teams who will likely get a bye. That alone will be an endless source of debate. Just go 8 or 16, and everybody plays the same # of games along the way.

The one thing I think we can absolutely count on is that the NCAA will find a way to arrive at a half-assed solution that almost no one will agree with.

Hey...it's what they do. Too late, too short, and too out of touch.
 

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