With College Football Playoff change looming, a 12-team model leads the way

[jaguinn5]

So give the top 4 teams a week off to rest, and the other 8 are going straight into playing after their conference championships?

If that's the route they go, it will be interesting to see how they spin player safety and the number of games played.

I don't think they would go straight into the playoffs. All of them would get some time to prepare, but the top 4 teams would get that extra week.

 

[GreveHaller]

Any scenario that include at large teams propagates the mentality that everybody needs a trophy so no feelings get their feelings hurt. If you can’t win your conference then don’t cry you can’t play for a NC

 

[Rickyvol77]

Any scenario that include at large teams propagates the mentality that everybody needs a trophy so no feelings get their feelings hurt. If you can’t win your conference then don’t cry you can’t play for a NC

Again not all conferences are the same or even matter.

South Alabama winning the Sun Belt at 7-5 isn't equal or better than Tennessee going 10-2 or 9-3 but finishing 2nd in the East

 

[sjt18]

So you'd be okay with the following scenario:

Let's say that Tennessee is in a division with Vandy, Kentucky and Georgia.

Tennessee schedules tough OOC opponents, and beats Oklahoma, Virginia Tech, and Oregon in the regular season, as well as knocking off Alabama, Auburn, Florida, and LSU in cross-division matchups. They absolutely smoke Vandy and Kentucky. But their QB is knocked out against UGA and the Bulldogs win on a last second field goal.

That same UGA team loses OOC games to Clemson and Georgia Tech. They get skulldrug by Bama, Auburn, Florida, and LSU. They limp their way to wins over Vandy and Kentucky, and they get the aforementioned win over Tennessee.

You're telling me that you'd be completely okay with that 6-loss UGA team having a crack at the SEC and National Championships while 1-loss Tennessee sits at home?

So we are going to judge by an extremely unlikely scenario?

To answer in short, yes. I would prefer that over a team, let's say Bama, who had key injuries or bad breaks early and then couldn't get in the NC playoff though they were the best team at the end of the season.

In fact, I've never been thrilled with Fulmer's last "East" championship. The rules that generally work for determining the "best" team from each division didn't work that time. We didn't scrap the rules because of an anomaly. UF and UGA were both better teams. UT had a more favorable schedule that particular year and only had to beat one of the 2 good SEC teams on their schedule.... and almost blew that by losing to a not very good Bama team.

There is NO system where lesser teams do not occasionally catch breaks.

 

[Brave Volunteer]

Again not all conferences are the same or even matter.

South Alabama winning the Sun Belt at 7-5 isn't equal or better than Tennessee going 10-2 or 9-3 but finishing 2nd in the East

So what you're saying is you're perfectly happy with the irrelevant programs/conferences to go right on being irrelevant and the NCAA should do absolutely nothing to give those programs/conferences a fair opportunity to elevate themselves. Because I can tell you right now, it's never going to happen on its own. The game is absolutely rigged to shut out group of 5 programs from ever being a part of the conversation. It's like the NCAA WANTS them to forever be "little brother" to the power 5 programs and has no interest in elevating their status. Call me crazy but I don't think that's right and ultimately college football is lesser for it.

 

[bamawriter]

So we are going to judge by an extremely unlikely scenario?

Again, an even worse scenario actually happened 2 years ago.

 

[BeardedVol]

I don't think they would go straight into the playoffs. All of them would get some time to prepare, but the top 4 teams would get that extra week.

With that many teams, I don't know how they manage to keep the New Years Bowl schedule as part of the CFB if they don't keep playing immediately following conference championships.

First weekend of December is when those conference championship games occur. If they take the second weekend off, that puts them starting playoffs on the third weekend of December, with only a single Saturday between those games and New Years, unless it's like this year where Christmas is on a Saturday, which they most likely wouldn't play on, and so is the first.

Week 1: Top 4 Bye in week one, bottom 8 play (Third Saturday)
Week 2: Top 4 vs 4 First round winners (4th Saturday)
Week 3: Semi final 2 games (New Years Day?)
Week 4: Championship (1st or second Monday of January)

If you don't start until the third Saturday of December, then you are playing the Semifinals on NYD, right after you played on the preceding Saturday. That will never work out.

 

[Rickyvol77]

So what you're saying is you're perfectly happy with the irrelevant programs/conferences to go right on being irrelevant and the NCAA should do absolutely nothing to give those programs/conferences a fair opportunity to elevate themselves. Because I can tell you right now, it's never going to happen on its own. The game is absolutely rigged to shut out group of 5 programs from ever being a part of the conversation. It's like the NCAA WANTS them to forever be "little brother" to the power 5 programs and has no interest in elevating their status. Call me crazy but I don't think that's right and ultimately college football is lesser for it.

Nobody is "keeping" these programs down, if you have the ability to make money, have large fanbases, and earn the work you can make your own future.

It's not Tennessee's fault that a team like Boise St used to be a NAIA trucker school and plays maybe one decent team a year and has no fanbase or facilities.

 

[Aerie Vol]

I’m not a fan of any model that includes teams getting a bye. Football is such a physical sport that it would be way too much of an advantage at the college level for a team to play less games. The #1 teams reward would be to play the 8th ranked team or 16th ranked team depending on what number of teams is chosen. That’s enough reward. IMO

NFL awards playoff byes.
On occasion (I know it's rare) a wildcard team runs the table and wins it all. The bye isn't the end all be all.

 

[GreveHaller]

Again not all conferences are the same or even matter.

South Alabama winning the Sun Belt at 7-5 isn't equal or better than Tennessee going 10-2 or 9-3 but finishing 2nd in the East

If you’re gonna use that silly argument then let’s start with our own conference. Time and time again the 2nd or even 3rd best team in the west if far better than the east division winner but in the end it’s the division champion that plays for the SEC crown. Regardless of record or even perceived strength, it’s the best in the East vs the best in the West playing. Same thing for NC. Win you conference or shut up. If you add at large team you might as well do Rock Paper Scissors for the title

 

[Rickyvol77]

How is that a silly argument? How many times in the last decade is the Sun Belt or MAC champ better than the team that finishes 7th in the SEC?

 

[BeardedVol]

What's unrealistic about it? Weird upsets happen every year. By creating a system in which only 3 games actually count toward anything you're greatly upping the likelihood that the weird upset decides who moves on and who doesn't. In 2019, USCe went 4-8 and 3-5 in the SEC, but one of those victories handed UGA their only loss of the regular season. If the other two wins had come within the division, then 4-8 USCe goes to the SEC semis while 11-1 UGA goes to the Whatever Bowl.

Because the scenario, is wholly unrealistic. UT doesn't schedule that many P5 OOC opponents, and Georgia is suddenly getting trucked by everyone, including GA Tech, but manages to beat Florida? TN beats everyone on their schedule including Alabama, but can't beat a terrible Georgia team that is getting wrecked by everyone, because we don't have a 2nd string QB ready to play?

I mean, yeah, that's not a fantastical scenario is never likely to occur at all.

 

[Voltopia]

True. I saw the other night that the USFL is returning soon. I don't know if it will last, but if it does? I will not be surprised if players decide, instead of entering the transfer portal, choosing to apply for that league. It could make CFB more like CBB; One and done. If they manage to pay better than the NIL deal which hasn't really gotten started yet? This may shift the recruiting landscape significantly.

In my opinion, I'd prefer none-and-done. Forget one-and-done. It's pointless, and disruptive, and a mockery of college athletics, so just dispense with it. Get the kids who want their paychecks in either the NFL or an NFL farm system, and let the kids who want to play college sports play college sports, and we can all be happy. It's not the colleges telling kids they can't go pro. Let the NFL fix it.

 

[Brave Volunteer]

Nobody is "keeping" these programs down, if you have the ability to make money, have large fanbases, and earn the work you can make your own future.

It's not Tennessee's fault that a team like Boise St used to be a NAIA trucker school and plays maybe one decent team a year and has no fanbase or facilities.

It'll never happen. Those days are over. The deck is already too stacked against those programs. Your "pull yourself up by your bootstraps" outlook is not realistic at all under the current college landscape and you know it. And keep in mind, I'm not just voicing this in favor of group of 5 conferences. I'm voicing it for ALL conferences. That's why I said earlier, I think the winners from every division 1 conference should get an automatic bid. I think a very heavy importance should be placed on winning your conference and an automatic playoff slot is a great way to do that.

Another thing nobody talks about too is coaching retention. How many times have we seen it where an up and coming coach in a group of 5 program leaves for "greener pastures" at a power 5 school? Group of 5 schools have no prayer of keeping quality coaches and it's not just because of money/facilities. Coaches want to go where they feel like they can win championships and if those schools can't ever even get the opportunity to compete, they're never going to be able to keep quality coaches on staff.

And I find it funny that you keep referencing Boise State as that is a program that absolutely would've beaten Tennessee's ass more often than not if we played them every year. Boise State beat Oklahoma on a big stage. They beat Oregon under Brian Kelly. They beat Georgia. Actually a program like Boise is exactly what I'm arguing for here. Cincinnati from last year is another great example. Group of 5 programs need to be represented in the playoffs.

 

[hog88]

A big reason for this is because there are only 4 playoff spots to begin with. A big reason why those 3 teams have the most realistic shot is because they occupy 3 of the 4 playoff spots and that's where all the top recruits go. If you expand the playoffs, you at least give top recruits more programs to choose from that have a legit shot of playing in the post-season. It's really not that difficult. The more seats you place at the table, the more programs that can eat. Under the current system, all it does is further marginalize and distance smaller programs from relevancy.

I used to believe the same way, not so much anymore and with NIL coming I don’t believe it at all. It will solidify the top 3-4 program.

 

[Brave Volunteer]

In my opinion, I'd prefer none-and-done. Forget one-and-done. It's pointless, and disruptive, and a mockery of college athletics, so just dispense with it. Get the kids who want their paychecks in either the NFL or an NFL farm system, and let the kids who want to play college sports play college sports, and we can all be happy. It's not the colleges telling kids they can't go pro. Let the NFL fix it.

I'm in total agreement of this. For basketball as well. The one and done system is awful and has ruined what college basketball used to be! Either let them go straight from high school to pro or make them play 3 years in college. No in between.

 

[Rickyvol77]

It'll never happen. Those days are over. The deck is already too stacked against those programs. Your "pull yourself up by your bootstraps" outlook is not realistic at all under the current college landscape and you know it. And keep in mind, I'm not just voicing this in favor of group of 5 conferences. I'm voicing it for ALL conferences. That's why I said earlier, I think the winners from every division 1 conference should get an automatic bid. I think a very heavy importance should be placed on winning your conference and an automatic playoff slot is a great way to do that.

Another thing nobody talks about too is coaching retention. How many times have we seen it where an up and coming coach in a group of 5 program leaves for "greener pastures" at a power 5 school? Group of 5 schools have no prayer of keeping quality coaches and it's not just because of money/facilities. Coaches want to go where they feel like they can win championships and if those schools can't ever even get the opportunity to compete, they're never going to be able to keep quality coaches on staff.

And I find it funny that you keep referencing Boise State as that is a program that absolutely would've beaten Tennessee's ass more often than not if we played them every year. Boise State beat Oklahoma on a big stage. They beat Oregon under Brian Kelly. They beat Georgia. Actually a program like Boise is exactly what I'm arguing for here. Cincinnati from last year is another great example. Group of 5 programs need to be represented in the playoffs.

Boise St would not beat Tennessee every year, Tennessee has beaten more P5 schools in the worst decade in their history than Boise has ever even beaten...look at Boise's record vs the P5 alltime...

And they can get to the playoffs just like any other team can, if their schedule is strong enough and record is good enough....but no they rack up 10-12 wins a year vs Nevada and San Jose St and then whine about not making it when they lose to the only top 25 team they play.

Again, it's not Tennessee's fault that we are top 10 all time program because of our choices and hard work and fanbase and we built it ourselves.

Boise St can't sell out a 30,000k seat stadium and whines about not being considered the same as Bama lol...its ridiculous.

No one TOLD Cincinnati not to invest into football 50 years ago, No one TOLD Houston and Southern Miss to turn down the SEC back in the 1960s....they chose to, and they are where they are because of their choices. It's crying BS to feel sorry for those programs just because they don't have fans or no one cares about them lol

 

[bamawriter]

Because the scenario, is wholly unrealistic. UT doesn't schedule that many P5 OOC opponents, and Georgia is suddenly getting trucked by everyone, including GA Tech, but manages to beat Florida? TN beats everyone on their schedule including Alabama, but can't beat a terrible Georgia team that is getting wrecked by everyone, because we don't have a 2nd string QB ready to play?

I mean, yeah, that's not a fantastical scenario is never likely to occur at all.

If the specifics of my hypothetical are what's tripping you up, then let's not strain our imaginations so much.

You'd have been fine with 4-8 South Carolina going to the SEC playoff over 11-1 UGA in 2019?

 

[Brave Volunteer]

Boise St would not beat Tennessee every year, Tennessee has beaten more P5 schools in the worst decade in their history than Boise has ever even beaten...look at Boise's record vs the P5 alltime...

And they can get to the playoffs just like any other team can, if their schedule is strong enough and record is good enough....but no they rack up 10-12 wins a year vs Nevada and San Jose St and then whine about not making it when they lose to the only top 25 team they play.

Again, it's not Tennessee's fault that we are top 10 all time program because of our choices and hard work and fanbase and we built it ourselves.

Boise St can't sell out a 30,000k seat stadium and whines about not being considered the same as Bama lol...its ridiculous.

No one TOLD Cincinnati not to invest into football 50 years ago, No one TOLD Houston and Southern Miss to turn down the SEC back in the 1960s....they chose to, and they are where they are because of their choices. It's crying BS to feel sorry for those programs just because they don't have fans or no one cares about them lol

We'll just have to agree to disagree. Nothing will ever change until the NCAA changes the playoff structure. Under the current structure, group of 5 programs will continue to flounder and power 5 programs will continue to prosper.

 

[bamawriter]

We'll just have to agree to disagree. Nothing will ever change until the NCAA changes the playoff structure. Under the current structure, group of 5 programs will continue to flounder and power 5 programs will continue to prosper.

I disagree. There are avenues for the G5 to get in, but it will require excellent out of conference scheduling, which means the top tier of the G5 will have to go on the road a lot.

The reason a program like UCF always winds up with a crap schedule is because they like to insist that they get a home-and-home with their P5 opponents. No P5 program that's anywhere north of decent is going to agree to that.

 

[Brave Volunteer]

I disagree. There are avenues for the G5 to get in, but it will require excellent out of conference scheduling, which means the top tier of the G5 will have to go on the road a lot.

The reason a program like UCF always winds up with a crap schedule is because they like to insist that they get a home-and-home with their P5 opponents. No P5 program that's anywhere north of decent is going to agree to that.

Under a 4 team playoff system??? Hahaha!! I think extremely narrow back alleyways is the more accurate description.

Look, nobody is going to come out and say it, but it's clear that the mentality here is G5 programs should "know their place" and be grateful for whatever table scraps they get.

 

[BeardedVol]

If the specifics of my hypothetical are what's tripping you up, then let's not strain our imaginations so much.

You'd have been fine with 4-8 South Carolina going to the SEC playoff over 11-1 UGA in 2019?

What is an "SEC playoff" in this scenario?

 

[bamawriter]

Under a 4 team playoff system??? Hahaha!!

If UCF, Boise St, Cincinnati, etc go on the road and beat four P5 teams on top of running thru their conference, they're getting in.

 

[bamawriter]

What is an "SEC playoff" in this scenario?

This is the scenario I've been responding to this whole time:

I would like to see a reorganization of 64 FBS teams into 4 conferences of 16 teams with 4 divisions each. Only the 3 division games would count toward winning the division. At the end of the regular season each conference would have a 4 team playoff to determine its championship. The four winners would then play for the National Championship.

The Group of 5 could be reorganized similarly.

The bold answers your question.

 

[BeardedVol]

This is the scenario I've been responding to this whole time:



The bold answers your question.

You'd have been fine with 4-8 South Carolina going to the SEC playoff over 11-1 UGA in 2019?

In 2019 South Carolina only defeated 3 SECe teams, Kentucky Vanderbilt and Georgia. Georgia on the other hand defeated, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Kentucky, Florida, and Missouri from the East.

So a 4-8 USCe still doesn't make it into an SEC playoff over an 11-1 Georgia in this scenario.