Why no one should worry about LSU

[fuego]

If head to heads don't matter, why is it certain UGA would get in over Tennessee.

Because they would still be considered one of the top 4 teams in the country, just like they made it last year after the SEC Championship loss to Bama.

 

[JMSqb11]

Because they would still be considered one of the top 4 teams in the country, just like they made it last year after the SEC Championship loss to Bama.

Youre saying head to head doesn’t matter in LSU’s case of us blowing them out but head to head matters in Georgia’s case….. you can’t discard head to head in one and use it in the other.

 

[LAVol1]

The only thing that bothers me is the composition of the Committee.

Boo Corrigan (chair) NC State athletic directorACC
Mitch Barnhart Kentucky athletic director
Tom Burman Wyoming athletic director
Rick George Colorado athletic director
Chet Gladchuk Navy athletic director
Jim Grobe Former coach, Wake Forest
Warde Manuel, Michigan athletic director
Will Shields Former Nebraska offensive guard
R. C. Slocum Former Texas A&M coach and interim athletic director Big 12/Pac-12
Gene Taylor Kansas State athletic director
Joe Taylor Former Virginia Union head coach and current athletic director
John Urschel Former Penn State offensive tackle
Kelly Whiteside Former college football reporter for Newsday, Sports Illustrated, and USA Today

This is and should be an Eye Opener. Michigan AD is concerning. B10 bias?

He only has one vote. He might get Nebraska and Penn St. to go with him in the vote, but he'll be outnumbered. The other people on this committee aren't going to be swayed by the Big 10 reps. These people aren't sheep or they wouldn't be in the positions they are in.

 

[fuego]

Youre saying head to head doesn’t matter in LSU’s case of us blowing them out but head to head matters in Georgia’s case….. you can’t discard head to head in one and use it in the other.

I'm saying what I said. Apart from head to head, not head to head, etc. If GA loses they'll still be in just like last year because they will still be considered one of the 4 best teams in the nation period. There is no scenario where GA doesn't make it.

 

[ScornedPapaVol]

I would argue that the sports news sources are irrelevant regardless, but carry on.

I'd argue that no one should worry about anything.

 

[MadMaxSC]

This is the correct way to think about this stuff. All the arguments claiming "facts" about how things will play out are nothing more than guesses. We don't know what the committee will do, but I do think they've given us a hint by having LSU (2-losses) ranked ahead of USC (1-loss) right now. It shows they they place a premium on strength of schedule. Because of this, I see no way that the loser of OSU/Michigan makes it in without some obvious bias from the committee. So in my mind, the loser of that game is out. I refuse to let conspiracy theories influence my expectations.

My biggest question is will they respect strength of schedule more than a conference championship from a weaker conference? The ACC is just too weak, IMO, but the PAC 12 (USC) makes me nervous. I wouldn't be shocked to see this thing finish 1. UGA 2. OSU/Mich 3. TCU 4. Tennessee but I also wouldn't be surprised if USC slides into the 4th spot with a conference championship... but again, if the committee would put USC ahead of us, why would they not already be ahead of LSU?

I don't completely agree that the loser of OSU-Michigan, is out. I believe a Michigan loss excludes them but I believe OSU could survive a NARROW loss and still be in the CFP, as the 4-seed. I believe the Vols need to take care of business (read roll over SC and Vandy) and let the CFP Committee do what they do. A Michigan loss to OSU certainly gives the Vols a path to the CFP but they will need to have a better showing than they did in the 1st half against Mizzou. Fortunately, they came alive in the 2nd half or they might not even still be in the conversation for the CFP.

 

[Delmar]

It is simple and that doest look good for you.

If Georgia, OSU, TCU and USC all win out that means they are all Conference Champions.

I believe that would be the committees dream situation. They might surprise me, and I say might because I don't like to be absolute about something I have no say or control in. For you to continue with your "absolute lock" and insulting everyone along the way shows more than ignorance.

Only reason you're not getting more crap than you are is because every single Tennessee fan that reads that "lock" stupidity, wants you to be right. If you get proven wrong, that means we didn't get in the playoffs and people gone be madder than a Keebler elf demoted to fudge packer and ready to take it out on you. Lucky for you I think one or both loses and we'll be fine.

I think you are exactly right. If all four of those win out and are conference champs, that is the committee’s dream scenario and why the playoff exists. The four best teams don’t always get in. Politics is real whether folks want to believe it or not. I’m old enough to have seen things that aren’t fair. Mama said it beez that way sometimes. You youngsters need to understand that fact of life. Hopefully TCU or USC takes a loss and that will help our cause.

 

[fuego]

Youre saying head to head doesn’t matter in LSU’s case of us blowing them out but head to head matters in Georgia’s case….. you can’t discard head to head in one and use it in the other.

One more thing, I just did ESPNs playoff calculator. If GA wins out and loses to LSU, and TN wins out, GAs chances of making the playoff are still 84%. TNs 68%. And the only team that has a better chance of making the playoff is either Mich or OSU if they win out and win their conference championship, which would be 99%. GA makes it no matter what if they win out the regular season but lose to LSU.

 

[GreveHaller]

One more thing, I just did ESPNs playoff calculator. If GA wins out and loses to LSU, and TN wins out, GAs chances of making the playoff are still 84%. TNs 68%. And the only team that has a better chance of making the playoff is either Mich or OSU if they win out and win their conference championship, which would be 99%. GA makes it no matter what if they win out the regular season but lose to LSU.

you're using quantitative measures to determine who makes it in. CFP voters are subjective. They vote on what have you done for me lately. We can knock off all the ranked teams we want but if LSU knocks off the undefeated #1 ranked team, that's what they'll think about. Its why they say "they remember November".

 

[WingT]

Youre saying head to head doesn’t matter in LSU’s case of us blowing them out but head to head matters in Georgia’s case….. you can’t discard head to head in one and use it in the other.

Well uga would've won their division and been in a conference championship... which carries weight

 

[bpalmer28]

I don't completely agree that the loser of OSU-Michigan, is out. I believe a Michigan loss excludes them but I believe OSU could survive a NARROW loss and still be in the CFP, as the 4-seed. I believe the Vols need to take care of business (read roll over SC and Vandy) and let the CFP Committee do what they do. A Michigan loss to OSU certainly gives the Vols a path to the CFP but they will need to have a better showing than they did in the 1st half against Mizzou. Fortunately, they came alive in the 2nd half or they might not even still be in the conversation for the CFP.

I hear you but what would OSU have to stand on as evidence that they are more desErving than Tennessee or even 2-loss Alabama or a 1-loss ACC Champ? When a narrow loss is the best thing on your resume I just see no way committee member can put you in

 

[unfrozencvmanvol]

If LSU jumps Tennessee for winning in Atlanta, that means head to heads don't matter. If head to heads don't matter, why is it certain UGA would get in over Tennessee.

You can't throw out head to heads in Tennessee at 11-1 and LSU at 11-2 and then use them in the case of 11-1 Tennessee and 12-1 UGA.....

I think it would mean conference championships matter more than it would mean head to heads don't matter. Regardless, it's moot, UGA beats LSU by 21+.

 

[BigOrangeTrain]

Not completely disagreeing with you but USC (13-1) is currently ranked behind a 2-loss SEC team. That's very important as it reveals a little bit of what the committee is thinking but for some reason most people choose to ignore this fact. I don't think the PAC 12 Championship is enough to move them ahead of a 1-loss SEC team.

You are saying currently. But if USC wins out and wins the PAC 12, then that will give them 3 ranked wins at the end of the season. One being a top 10 win. If that happens, USC is in.

 

[WingT]

You are saying currently. But if USC wins out and wins the PAC 12, then that will give them 3 ranked wins at the end of the season. One being a top 10 win. If that happens, USC is in.

I think most people miss this, we are in a good position but really have no rope left to climb..... no more oppritunity to impress


That worries me given the recentcy bias of the committee/media.... yeah we deserve it, but everyone is now excited about this hot new thing that finally won some games

 

[ZZ13]

Was listening to Zach Gelb on CBS Sports Radio last night. He and his partner had a long discussion about the playoffs. Here is a summary of his expectations:

If the current top five hold form and win out as favored, then Georgia, OSU/UM winner and Tennessee are locks for the playoffs. He said the following teams are out unless the top five mess up along the way: LSU, ACC Champion. He dissed this years ACC. He said the final spot would then be TCUs if they win out. If they lose then the final spot is between TCU, OSU/loser and one loss USC as Pac-12 champion. He gave it to USC. He also said nobody outside the top 10 right now has any chance. He based that on Penn State at #11 shows you how undeserving the teams are from 11 on.

He also said the committee does not care at all about conference champions. They want their definition of the best four teams. And finally, he said the best scenario for the playoff committee is Georgia, Ohio State, Tennessee, Michigan. Four power schools from the two most powerful conferences. Thinks it would be a ratings boom.

 

[wmcovol]

I just don’t see a logical decision to deny team A over Team B when A has a better record vs a tougher schedule and a 27 pt win over B on B’s home field.

 

[JMSqb11]

Was listening to Zach Gelb on CBS Sports Radio last night. He and his partner had a long discussion about the playoffs. Here is a summary of his expectations:

If the current top five hold form and win out as favored, then Georgia, OSU/UM winner and Tennessee are locks for the playoffs. He said the following teams are out unless the top five mess up along the way: LSU, ACC Champion. He dissed this years ACC. He said the final spot would then be TCUs if they win out. If they lose then the final spot is between TCU, OSU/loser and one loss USC as Pac-12 champion. He gave it to USC. He also said nobody outside the top 10 right now has any chance. He based that on Penn State at #11 shows you how undeserving the teams are from 11 on.

He also said the committee does not care at all about conference champions. They want their definition of the best four teams. And finally, he said the best scenario for the playoff committee is Georgia, Ohio State, Tennessee, Michigan. Four power schools from the two most powerful conferences. Thinks it would be a ratings boom.

I think right now the committee is going for 3 best teams / 1 most deserving... It is clear to see who the most deserving team woudl be and that is TCU if they go 13-0. There isn't a soul alive that thinks TCU would be less than a double digit underdog to any team in the top 6-8.... I think their most comparable team in the top 10 would be USC.

TCU loses, and then they go 4 best teams. Yeehaw.

 

[VolMack——————$]

This is the correct way to think about this stuff. All the arguments claiming "facts" about how things will play out are nothing more than guesses. We don't know what the committee will do, but I do think they've given us a hint by having LSU (2-losses) ranked ahead of USC (1-loss) right now. It shows they they place a premium on strength of schedule. Because of this, I see no way that the loser of OSU/Michigan makes it in without some obvious bias from the committee. So in my mind, the loser of that game is out. I refuse to let conspiracy theories influence my expectations.

My biggest question is will they respect strength of schedule more than a conference championship from a weaker conference? The ACC is just too weak, IMO, but the PAC 12 (USC) makes me nervous. I wouldn't be shocked to see this thing finish 1. UGA 2. OSU/Mich 3. TCU 4. Tennessee but I also wouldn't be surprised if USC slides into the 4th spot with a conference championship... but again, if the committee would put USC ahead of us, why would they not already be ahead of LSU?[/QUO

This is the correct way to think about this stuff. All the arguments claiming "facts" about how things will play out are nothing more than guesses. We don't know what the committee will do, but I do think they've given us a hint by having LSU (2-losses) ranked ahead of USC (1-loss) right now. It shows they they place a premium on strength of schedule. Because of this, I see no way that the loser of OSU/Michigan makes it in without some obvious bias from the committee. So in my mind, the loser of that game is out. I refuse to let conspiracy theories influence my expectations.

My biggest question is will they respect strength of schedule more than a conference championship from a weaker conference? The ACC is just too weak, IMO, but the PAC 12 (USC) makes me nervous. I wouldn't be shocked to see this thing finish 1. UGA 2. OSU/Mich 3. TCU 4. Tennessee but I also wouldn't be surprised if USC slides into the 4th spot with a conference championship... but again, if the committee would put USC ahead of us, why would they not already be ahead of LSU?

LSU is ahead of USC because they beat Alabama and USC hasn’t impressed anyone with there schedule. USC is a problem (IF) they could win out. But they haven’t impressed many and with the games they have coming up. They probably don’t think that USC will finish out undefeated. With the three huge games in a row (IF) they can get to the PAC championship game. I also feel that after LSU beat Alabama they jumped them that high setting up the SEC Championship game. Setting the stage for the talk (hype) and reviews everyone will debate building up to the championship games. Now……if LSU and USC happen to lose a game before the championship games….man will it be boring. Then all of a sudden Clemson and UNC. Matchup in there championship game will become world beaters !!! I think the biggest loser for the PAC was when Oregon lost. That was HUGE !!! Because I think everyone feels USC can’t go through that gauntlet. I’ll also say this…….with these games coming up in the next three weeks will determine the Heisman !!! So if you view it that way then the Qb) and Ohio State needs to lose…USC and the Qb.) must lose…TCU and the Qb.) needs to lose and Bo Nix is out of it with 2 losses. Then it’s Hendons or the Michigan’s RB. They will be front runners at that point.

 

[Orange_Rush]

USC has already lost and TCU will lose (possibly against Baylor this weekend). I project the final four will look like:
1- Georgia (13-0)
2- Ohio State (13-0)
3- Tennessee (11-1)
4- Michigan (11-1)

 

[bpalmer28]

You are saying currently. But if USC wins out and wins the PAC 12, then that will give them 3 ranked wins at the end of the season. One being a top 10 win. If that happens, USC is in.

Which one are you saying will be top 10?

 

[Smokey7]

Wasn't 27 enough?
Maybe we drop fiddy on you Baton Rougeons next time!

 

[VolForLife83]

Not completely disagreeing with you but USC (13-1) is currently ranked behind a 2-loss SEC team. That's very important as it reveals a little bit of what the committee is thinking but for some reason most people choose to ignore this fact. I don't think the PAC 12 Championship is enough to move them ahead of a 1-loss SEC team.

Champions will move up later

 

[bpalmer28]

Champions will move up later

Strange typo by me in the post you quoted... 13-1? Surely not an accidental foreshadowing.. They going to beat UGA in the first round???

 

[1989Vol]

So the SEC Champ LSU team that beats Bama and Georgia in the past month is left out? Can't see UGA being left out even with 1 loss either. All I see is us getting screwed. I'm in panic mode.

 

[JMSqb11]

So the SEC Champ LSU team that beats Bama and Georgia in the past month is left out? Can't see UGA being left out even with 1 loss either. All I see is us getting screwed. I'm in panic mode.

If the head to head is not considered for Tennessee vs LSU, it can't be considered for Tennessee vs Georgia.....