Why no one should worry about LSU

#1
V

vol4him

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jul 29, 2011
Messages
188
Likes
454
#1
Let me break down what the sports news sources do not want to break down, because then there wouldn’t be debate and they would be irrelevant.

The LSU scenario:
In this scenario, LSU beats Georgia in the SEC Championship game.
If this happens, the Top 3 would look like this:
1. Ohio State/Michigan winner (13-0)
2. TCU (13-0)
3. USC (13-0)
4. ?
If LSU wins, then it’s a circular argument (LSU beat Georgia, Georgia beat Tennessee, and Tennessee beat LSU). In this scenario, I don’t think LSU winning the SEC matters as much as they have a second loss, which means it’s between Georgia and Tennessee and Georgia would most likely get in with the head to head victory. However, if LSU’s winning the SEC evens out their two losses, this is what the analysis would look like:
Tennessee would be 2-1 against Top 10 teams; 5-1 against Top 25 teams
LSU would be 2-1 against Top 10 teams; 4-2 against Top 25 teams
Georgia would be 1-1 against Top 10 teams; 3-1 against Top 25 teams
In this analysis, Tennessee would get the nod, because they have played a better schedule; are equal with LSU in Top 10 games, but beat LSU head to head.

Notice, in both analysis’ LSU doesn’t get in. I truly believe that for LSU to get in, they need a loss from TCU or USC or both. I’m not sure why the sports media is hyping them so much, but the case isn’t there on paper. Additionally, I don’t think LSU will beat Georgia, so this is going to be a mute point.

Tennessee only needs a TCU or USC loss to be guaranteed a spot (given that they win their last two games and Georgia wins out, which is the most likely scenario). Notice, the word guaranteed. They may get in anyway. However, I would like both to lose, so that we will be the three seed playing the OSU/Michigan winner. With TCU and USC losing, the final four would look as follows:
1. Georgia
2. OSU/Michigan winner
3. Tennessee
4. The OSU/Michigan loser or TCU (12-1) or ACC winner (12-1)
Regardless, with all the games left to play, it should work itself out. GO VOLS!!
 
  • Like
Reactions: norrislakevol, VolFaninFla, RanMac and 1 other person
#3
#3
vol4him said:
Let me break down what the sports news sources do not want to break down, because then there wouldn’t be debate and they would be irrelevant.

The LSU scenario:
In this scenario, LSU beats Georgia in the SEC Championship game.
If this happens, the Top 3 would look like this:
1. Ohio State/Michigan winner (13-0)
2. TCU (13-0)
3. USC (13-0)
4. ?
If LSU wins, then it’s a circular argument (LSU beat Georgia, Georgia beat Tennessee, and Tennessee beat LSU). In this scenario, I don’t think LSU winning the SEC matters as much as they have a second loss, which means it’s between Georgia and Tennessee and Georgia would most likely get in with the head to head victory. However, if LSU’s winning the SEC evens out their two losses, this is what the analysis would look like:
Tennessee would be 2-1 against Top 10 teams; 5-1 against Top 25 teams
LSU would be 2-1 against Top 10 teams; 4-2 against Top 25 teams
Georgia would be 1-1 against Top 10 teams; 3-1 against Top 25 teams
In this analysis, Tennessee would get the nod, because they have played a better schedule; are equal with LSU in Top 10 games, but beat LSU head to head.

Notice, in both analysis’ LSU doesn’t get in. I truly believe that for LSU to get in, they need a loss from TCU or USC or both. I’m not sure why the sports media is hyping them so much, but the case isn’t there on paper. Additionally, I don’t think LSU will beat Georgia, so this is going to be a mute point.

Tennessee only needs a TCU or USC loss to be guaranteed a spot (given that they win their last two games and Georgia wins out, which is the most likely scenario). Notice, the word guaranteed. They may get in anyway. However, I would like both to lose, so that we will be the three seed playing the OSU/Michigan winner. With TCU and USC losing, the final four would look as follows:
1. Georgia
2. OSU/Michigan winner
3. Tennessee
4. The OSU/Michigan loser or TCU (12-1) or ACC winner (12-1)
Regardless, with all the games left to play, it should work itself out. GO VOLS!!
Click to expand...
USC has a loss already. If you’re going to make some long playoff scenario post why not get the details right lol
 
  • Like
Reactions: BanditVol, DaddyChad, BenGrimm and 23 others
#7
#7
Not completely disagreeing with you but USC (13-1) is currently ranked behind a 2-loss SEC team. That's very important as it reveals a little bit of what the committee is thinking but for some reason most people choose to ignore this fact. I don't think the PAC 12 Championship is enough to move them ahead of a 1-loss SEC team.
 
  • Like
Reactions: LAVol1
#9
#9
TCU and USC are the two wild cards IMO. If either one lose we are in. I don't see how they can justify putting LSU in over a one loss TN or GA even if they win the SEC. I don't foresee that happening though. I think the biggest tossup is will a one loss Pac12/ACC Champ get in over TN. We have the strength of schedule argument over any PAC12/ACC team but will they choose a conference champ over us is the question.
 
  • Like
Reactions: JRich and bpalmer28
#12
#12
Georgia is in the playoffs win or lose against LSU (just fact). Does anyone really believe LSU can beat UGA in Atlanta anyway?

Tennessee man must root for the Dawgs if they want in... Vols NEED a Georgia win!

Also, a 1-loss Tennessee team has a MUCH better resume than a 1-loss Big Ten team IMO.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Godfatha, feathersax, norrislakevol and 8 others
#13
#13
vol4him said:
Let me break down what the sports news sources do not want to break down, because then there wouldn’t be debate and they would be irrelevant.

The LSU scenario:
In this scenario, LSU beats Georgia in the SEC Championship game.
If this happens, the Top 3 would look like this:
1. Ohio State/Michigan winner (13-0)
2. TCU (13-0)
3. USC (13-0)
4. ?
If LSU wins, then it’s a circular argument (LSU beat Georgia, Georgia beat Tennessee, and Tennessee beat LSU). In this scenario, I don’t think LSU winning the SEC matters as much as they have a second loss, which means it’s between Georgia and Tennessee and Georgia would most likely get in with the head to head victory. However, if LSU’s winning the SEC evens out their two losses, this is what the analysis would look like:
Tennessee would be 2-1 against Top 10 teams; 5-1 against Top 25 teams
LSU would be 2-1 against Top 10 teams; 4-2 against Top 25 teams
Georgia would be 1-1 against Top 10 teams; 3-1 against Top 25 teams
In this analysis, Tennessee would get the nod, because they have played a better schedule; are equal with LSU in Top 10 games, but beat LSU head to head.

Notice, in both analysis’ LSU doesn’t get in. I truly believe that for LSU to get in, they need a loss from TCU or USC or both. I’m not sure why the sports media is hyping them so much, but the case isn’t there on paper. Additionally, I don’t think LSU will beat Georgia, so this is going to be a mute point.

Tennessee only needs a TCU or USC loss to be guaranteed a spot (given that they win their last two games and Georgia wins out, which is the most likely scenario). Notice, the word guaranteed. They may get in anyway. However, I would like both to lose, so that we will be the three seed playing the OSU/Michigan winner. With TCU and USC losing, the final four would look as follows:
1. Georgia
2. OSU/Michigan winner
3. Tennessee
4. The OSU/Michigan loser or TCU (12-1) or ACC winner (12-1)
Regardless, with all the games left to play, it should work itself out. GO VOLS!!
Click to expand...

If LSU somehow upsets Georgia, there will be 3 SEC teams in the CFP.
 
#17
#17
All of these posts trying to apply logic to this process are clearly being made by people are too young to have been around prior to the BCS-era. TV viewership (ad money) and conference politics will be bigger factors than logical analysis of who is most deserving. We should all brace ourselves for disappointment and just hope for the best.
 
  • Like
Reactions: orangebloodgmc, igotworms and Rickyvol77
#18
#18
Orange defense said:
Georgia wouldn’t move down that far. Probably 4th, leaving us out.
Click to expand...

If LSU jumps Tennessee for winning in Atlanta, that means head to heads don't matter. If head to heads don't matter, why is it certain UGA would get in over Tennessee.

You can't throw out head to heads in Tennessee at 11-1 and LSU at 11-2 and then use them in the case of 11-1 Tennessee and 12-1 UGA.....
 
  • Like
Reactions: VolDave53, norrislakevol, igotworms and 4 others
#19
#19
This conversation is a total distraction and has zero business being discussed. Too damn early.
Sometimes we can't enjoy success and let the cards play out which they will.
Just win out and watch the board.
We should enjoy our success and let it play out.
You put the best 4 teams in the playoffs and it makes no difference about the Conference championships in determining the best 4 teams.
 
  • Like
Reactions: orangebloodgmc, MadMaxSC and JRich
#20
#20
uncle chewii said:
TCU and USC are the two wild cards IMO. If either one lose we are in. I don't see how they can justify putting LSU in over a one loss TN or GA even if they win the SEC. I don't foresee that happening though. I think the biggest tossup is will a one loss Pac12/ACC Champ get in over TN. We have the strength of schedule argument over any PAC12/ACC team but will they choose a conference champ over us is the question.
Click to expand...
This is the correct way to think about this stuff. All the arguments claiming "facts" about how things will play out are nothing more than guesses. We don't know what the committee will do, but I do think they've given us a hint by having LSU (2-losses) ranked ahead of USC (1-loss) right now. It shows they they place a premium on strength of schedule. Because of this, I see no way that the loser of OSU/Michigan makes it in without some obvious bias from the committee. So in my mind, the loser of that game is out. I refuse to let conspiracy theories influence my expectations.

My biggest question is will they respect strength of schedule more than a conference championship from a weaker conference? The ACC is just too weak, IMO, but the PAC 12 (USC) makes me nervous. I wouldn't be shocked to see this thing finish 1. UGA 2. OSU/Mich 3. TCU 4. Tennessee but I also wouldn't be surprised if USC slides into the 4th spot with a conference championship... but again, if the committee would put USC ahead of us, why would they not already be ahead of LSU?
 
#21
#21
Hacksaw said:
All of these posts trying to apply logic to this process are clearly being made by people are too young to have been around prior to the BCS-era. TV viewership (ad money) and conference politics will be bigger factors than logical analysis of who is most deserving. We should all brace ourselves for disappointment and just hope for the best.
Click to expand...
Who attracts more viewers than Tennessee? The two most viewed games in the country this year were TN vs UGA and TN vs Bama
 
  • Like
Reactions: Memvol44, norrislakevol, ptcarter and 1 other person
#22
#22
OffTackleVol said:
If LSU somehow upsets Georgia, there will be 3 SEC teams in the CFP.
Click to expand...

Yep - and a lot of folks on this board will argue with you about this. It’s amusing actually, but people don’t seem to understand that this committee (as shown by the way it ranks teams and in its history) behaves as if it is blind (as it should be) to conference affiliation. They are picking the top four teams. TCU and USC do not qualify.
But the massss will say “no way they put three SEC teams in there” - yes, Melinda, they certainly would.
 
  • Like
Reactions: OffTackleVol
#24
#24
volfan_28 said:
Who attracts more viewers than Tennessee? The two most viewed games in the country this year were TN vs UGA and TN vs Bama
Click to expand...

You make a great point and I think that's the biggest intangible in our favor. I still don't take anything for granted.
 
New posts
You must log in or register to reply here.

VN Store



Back
Top