VFL-82-JP
Bleedin' Orange...
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Let's look at the math to help us think this through.
First, we can say that--with a rare, rare exception once every several years--all 5* recruits will end up at Power 5 programs.
Next, let's narrow that down a bit. Because there are 69 (was 65, but it grew by four recently) Power 5 universities, including a significant group who have no real chance at a 5* recruit in an average year. I counted 27 of those.* That leaves 42 universities realistically competing for 32 high-octane recruits. So on average, just under one 5* each.
But we know the riches aren't divided evenly. A typical class looks about like this: 4 (or 5) to one school, 3 (or 4) to the next, then 3, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1.
That's roughly 15 to 20 programs splitting up the 32 lads. Of course, some programs are in the "have" group one year, and the "have not" the next; there's a sort of churn among the 42 universities with a real shot at a top tier recruit.
So conclusion 1: it's nice to usually be in the group that gets at least 1 (and we usually do).
Conclusion 2, our next step forward is to join the Clemson-FSU-USC-LSU tier, by averaging 2 each year. Once we're there, we can leap into the most elite recruiting group of all, those few programs who typically get 3 or 4 each year (these days, just Bama, UGa, and Ohio St).
Go Vols!
* The 27 are: Arizona, Boston College, BYU. Cincinnati, Duke, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa State, Houston, Kansas, Kansas State, Louisville, Maryland, Minnesota, Northwestern, Purdue, Rutgers, Southern Miss, Texas Tech, UCF, Utah, Vanderbilt, Virginia, Wake Forest, and Washington State. Most of these are included because they have never signed a 5* (including, surprisingly, Texas Tech and Wash St). A few have (like Rutgers), but that's clearly one of those quirks that shouldn't be expected to repeat on an average year.
First, we can say that--with a rare, rare exception once every several years--all 5* recruits will end up at Power 5 programs.
Next, let's narrow that down a bit. Because there are 69 (was 65, but it grew by four recently) Power 5 universities, including a significant group who have no real chance at a 5* recruit in an average year. I counted 27 of those.* That leaves 42 universities realistically competing for 32 high-octane recruits. So on average, just under one 5* each.
But we know the riches aren't divided evenly. A typical class looks about like this: 4 (or 5) to one school, 3 (or 4) to the next, then 3, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1.
That's roughly 15 to 20 programs splitting up the 32 lads. Of course, some programs are in the "have" group one year, and the "have not" the next; there's a sort of churn among the 42 universities with a real shot at a top tier recruit.
So conclusion 1: it's nice to usually be in the group that gets at least 1 (and we usually do).
Conclusion 2, our next step forward is to join the Clemson-FSU-USC-LSU tier, by averaging 2 each year. Once we're there, we can leap into the most elite recruiting group of all, those few programs who typically get 3 or 4 each year (these days, just Bama, UGa, and Ohio St).
Go Vols!
* The 27 are: Arizona, Boston College, BYU. Cincinnati, Duke, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa State, Houston, Kansas, Kansas State, Louisville, Maryland, Minnesota, Northwestern, Purdue, Rutgers, Southern Miss, Texas Tech, UCF, Utah, Vanderbilt, Virginia, Wake Forest, and Washington State. Most of these are included because they have never signed a 5* (including, surprisingly, Texas Tech and Wash St). A few have (like Rutgers), but that's clearly one of those quirks that shouldn't be expected to repeat on an average year.
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