Which SEC teams are in danger of losing 3 more games in 2017 than in 2016?

#52
#52
If you do a 4-year class recruiting ranking average using the 247composite, UT is more talented on paper than last year (only slightly, but better).

Additionally, we should, on pure recruiting-talent alone, expect:
Losses to Bama and LSU
Close loss to UGA
Close win over FL
The rest should be W's

That puts 2017 VOLS, just on pure recruiting talent at 9-3 but obviously does not account for home/away swings, coaching advantages/disadvantages, injuries, attrition, etc.

As an FYI, I also did this for 2016 and predicted an 8-4 season and then saw the Nebraska game as a solid win. The problem with this model (as stated above in the areas you can't account for) is that we won 2 that were expected to be close losses (FL/UGA) and lost 2 that were expected to be wins (Vandy/USCe).

Go VOLS.
 

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#54
#54
BleedOrange16 said:
If you do a 4-year class recruiting ranking average using the 247composite, UT is more talented on paper than last year (only slightly, but better).

Additionally, we should, on pure recruiting-talent alone, expect:
Losses to Bama and LSU
Close loss to UGA
Close win over FL
The rest should be W's

That puts 2017 VOLS, just on pure recruiting talent at 9-3 but obviously does not account for home/away swings, coaching advantages/disadvantages, injuries, attrition, etc.

As an FYI, I also did this for 2016 and predicted an 8-4 season and then saw the Nebraska game as a solid win. The problem with this model (as stated above in the areas you can't account for) is that we won 2 that were expected to be close losses (FL/UGA) and lost 2 that were expected to be wins (Vandy/USCe).

Go VOLS.
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The other problem with this model is the trend that CBJ will lose at least one maybe two games he shouldnt. Which puts us around 8-4/7-5, about where everyone is picking.

I try to look at it like this, who is taking the spots of

Dobbs
Kamara
Malone
Barnett
Vereen
Kendrick
Sutton

That we can expect to play at the level they did?
 
#55
#55
Johnnyreb#VFL said:
Yeah, great defense can motivate your offense to play at a higher level too pal
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Oh okay, i gotcha. I guess im a bit more skeptical of how we are going to go from a historically bad defense to a great defense, missing the top contributors from the historically bad defense.
 
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#56
#56
Alabama could finish 11-3 as SEC runner ups/bowl game losers and lose 3 more games than last year. It could happen!
 
#57
#57
volfannbama said:
Oh okay, i gotcha. I guess im a bit more skeptical of how we are going to go from a historically bad defense to a great defense, missing the top contributors from the historically bad defense.
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My hope lies in the coaching additions and the return of most key players who have more experience now, but yeah.. DB is irreplaceable. I just hope they teach our corners how to play the ball. E Moseley particularly
 
#58
#58
volfannbama said:
The other problem with this model is the trend that CBJ will lose at least one maybe two games he shouldnt. Which puts us around 8-4/7-5, about where everyone is picking.

I try to look at it like this, who is taking the spots of

Dobbs
Kamara
Malone
Barnett
Vereen
Kendrick
Sutton

That we can expect to play at the level they did?
Click to expand...

Kendrick is back and Wiesman is gone. Sutton played all of 3-4 games last year. So in a sense, we have been playing without him. Same with JRM, we got maybe 2 games before he was hurt.
 
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#59
#59
volfannbama said:
I dont know what Warren has coached but ive learned my lesson putting faith in coaches before they prove anything here. Shoop had great defenses at Vandy and Penn St and well.....yeah....
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I look at it like it can't get any worse so why not start positive until he gives me reason not to
 
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#60
#60
volfannbama said:
The other problem with this model is the trend that CBJ will lose at least one maybe two games he shouldnt. Which puts us around 8-4/7-5, about where everyone is picking.

I try to look at it like this, who is taking the spots of

Dobbs
Kamara
Malone
Barnett
Vereen
Kendrick
Sutton

That we can expect to play at the level they did?
Click to expand...

To be candid, I agree. I would put us at a Butch/injury factor of -1/-2 as you stated. Based on results, in 2016 when doing the same model:
- We won zero games we were expected to lose (Bama)
- We won two toss up games (UGA, FL, A&M)
- We lost two games we should have won (the field)

If you count +1 for every game you win that you should lose, +0 for toss-ups regardless of outcomes, and -1 for losing a game you should win, UT was
-2 in 2016 with Butch/injuries.

So if paper says we should be 8-3 this year with one toss-up, the Butch/injury factor of 2016 puts us at 6-5 with one toss up....
 
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#61
#61
BleedOrange16 said:
To be candid, I agree. I would put us at a Butch/injury factor of -1/-2 as you stated. Based on results, in 2016 when doing the same model:
- We won zero games we were expected to lose (Bama)
- We won two toss up games (UGA, FL, A&M)
- We lost two games we should have won (the field)

If you count +1 for every game you win that you should lose, +0 for toss-ups regardless of outcomes, and -1 for losing a game you should win, UT was
-2 in 2016 with Butch/injuries.

So if paper says we should be 8-3 this year with one toss-up, the Butch/injury factor of 2016 puts us at 6-5 with one toss up....
Click to expand...

And a HC who is DMW as to his tenure on the hill.
 
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#62
#62
sjt18 said:
If he wins less than 8 he should be gone. Great coaches, coach great... without regard to the circumstances they're dealing with.
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So you're good with 8-5 next year? No way! Jones has to overachieve in 2017 to keep his job. It's been 5 years. The only way he stays at 9-4 is no blowout losses, choke jobs, upsets coupled with the team making strides towards being a contender at the end of the season. I don't care where and who he's playing. Even the most loyal fans of Jones shouldn't be content with 8 wins. All teams have player turnover and loss of eligibility.
 
#64
#64
VolRoger said:
So you're good with 8-5 next year? No way! Jones has to overachieve in 2017 to keep his job. It's been 5 years. The only way he stays at 9-4 is no blowout losses, choke jobs, upsets coupled with the team making strides towards being a contender at the end of the season. I don't care where and who he's playing. Even the most loyal fans of Jones shouldn't be content with 8 wins. All teams have player turnover and loss of eligibility.
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Lol, I'll have what you are having!
 
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#65
#65
HuntlandVolinColo said:
Kendrick is back and Wiesman is gone. Sutton played all of 3-4 games last year. So in a sense, we have been playing without him. Same with JRM, we got maybe 2 games before he was hurt.
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1. Wiseman much better than Kendrick
2. Sutton played 7 games last year
3. JRM played in parts of 4 games last year, but your point is taken, we essentially played without him all year long.
 
#66
#66
KBVol said:
Dude, Butch Jones no Rick Barnes, who is a surefire HOF coach. Barnes has shown in year two that he can overachieve with less while Jones has proven he will underachieve in years 3 and 4 with more. Understand your sentiment, but it's apples to oranges imo.
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Maybe Barnes will rub off of jones. Let's hope. If for nothing else, could use some candor with the press.
 
#67
#67
Honestly the East has become such a **** show that there is no way to predict it. We could lose 6. We could also win 10. Who knows?
 
#68
#68
Dudleys87 said:
Really tough opener.
I hope we dont underestimate them and start this season like last season
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The key to this game is how much the defense improves. Our offense should be able to score on GT. I think we win , something like 28-24. We must be able to stop the run. If e get ahead by 14 or so, we could win by 17.
 
#69
#69
KBVol said:
1. Wiseman much better than Kendrick
2. Sutton played 7 games last year
3. JRM played in parts of 4 games last year, but your point is taken, we essentially played without him all year long.
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Sutton did play in seven games last year, but he was at some where between 70-75%. He looked much better in the SR. Bowl.
 
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#72
#72
HoptownVol said:
If we get EVER GET beat by Carolina and Vandy again, Butch better start packing.
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I added a couple of words to your post. I hope you don't mind. It seems more accurate.

You just don't lose to Vandy, is true, and it's mean to say it out loud.

Get it together Butch!
 
#73
#73
We will beat one of UGA and LSU and lose to two of Scar, Tech, and Vandy.
 
#74
#74
Catbone said:
We will beat one of UGA and LSU and lose to two of Scar, Tech, and Vandy.
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Tech would be a bad loss but could happen. SC and Vandy won't happen. The players overlooked those two last year and there are too many returning players that have that mark on them. Our better than their players will have fun punishing them this year. 2016 Vandy did a disservice to 2017 Vandy team. Vandy will be one of those 56-0 nothing kind of games and SC will be like 45-17 type win.

That game was circled the night of last years loss for both of them.

That's how I feel about those two games.

Release the Beast!
 
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#75
#75
Dudleys87 said:
Really tough opener.
I hope we dont underestimate them and start this season like last season
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Playing GT to open the season is a completely different animal than playing them with a week to prepare. There's no excuse losing that game this season.
 
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