War in Ukraine

[volbound1700]

Russia has gone through at least 3 or 4 different coups since then. And we all know how much a coup de-legitifies a country in the eyes of Ras.

I always love when Catherine the Prussian, I mean Great, gets brought up. She was a german princess who married the legitimate heir to the throne. after they took power, she lead a coup against her Russian husband, and kicked him out of power. and what made her so "Great" was that she acted very much like a Prussian/European and not a Russian.

I love how her and Peter the Great (two most iconic Russian leaders) think 180 from Ras. They wanted Russia to be part of Europe and would likely have been proponents to be in the EU and NATO. They were also anti-Islamic and dreamed of restoring Byzantium which flies in the face of Ras defending Palestine.

 

[LSU-SIU]

Reality.

View attachment 632938

The land gains/losses are meaningless as a whole, but land losses/gains will be going up due to positions being lost on the high ground... they will have to retreat further back as this continues. These were the best defended areas which they were preparing since 2014. I would say at current pace you're looking at a decade+ (I think I said a year or two ago - 1-2 decades) but that assumes unlimited ammo and meat - which is unlikely. Land gains are possible in the 5-10% range per year assuming the Ukraine can start cloning people for the ditch, without more meat the whole front could collapse. There is no move or moves that Ukraine can make to regain what is being lost, it just simply doesn't exist... its not large areas at the moment, which is why the present is the best time to strike a deal. The situation isn't going to get better for them.

 

[PKT_VOL]

The land gains/losses are meaningless as a whole, but land losses/gains will be going up due to positions being lost on the high ground... they will have to retreat further back as this continues. These were the best defended areas which they were preparing since 2014. I would say at current pace you're looking at a decade+ (I think I said a year or two ago - 1-2 decades) but that assumes unlimited ammo and meat - which is unlikely. Land gains are possible in the 5-10% range per year assuming the Ukraine can start cloning people for the ditch, without more meat the whole front could collapse. There is no move or moves that Ukraine can make to regain what is being lost, it just simply doesn't exist... its not large areas at the moment, which is why the present is the best time to strike a deal. The situation isn't going to get better for them.

Your retreat narrative doesn't conform to reality.

Reality is that the conflict has been locked in a stalemate with respect to land changes. The only relevant changes of note in the past year are changes in assets.

 

[LouderVol]

The land gains/losses are meaningless as a whole, but land losses/gains will be going up due to positions being lost on the high ground... they will have to retreat further back as this continues. These were the best defended areas which they were preparing since 2014. I would say at current pace you're looking at a decade+ (I think I said a year or two ago - 1-2 decades) but that assumes unlimited ammo and meat - which is unlikely. Land gains are possible in the 5-10% range per year assuming the Ukraine can start cloning people for the ditch, without more meat the whole front could collapse. There is no move or moves that Ukraine can make to regain what is being lost, it just simply doesn't exist... its not large areas at the moment, which is why the present is the best time to strike a deal. The situation isn't going to get better for them.

I don't think either of those statements is particularly true.

we are mostly talking about areas west of some "bigger" cities that were already fought over after 2022, so it can't be said they have been building defenses there since 2014. unless the Ukrainians were eerily premonitient.

and I am really going to need to see something that backs up the claims that these were the best defended Ukrainian areas. Common sense would say the Russians were looking for the weakest points to take advantage of. if nothing else to cut back on their own losses and expenditure, but it would also force the Ukrainians into using more men and equipment to hold them than they would be required in a similar better defensive position.

the problem with their tactic of flattening everything is it doesn't really matter how many people defend it. It will still take them X amount of time to flatten the same area. even if there are less defenders. if anything the decreased density of defenders will make saturation bombardments even less efficient.

the Russians are really going to have to pick up the pace to get to even 5%. as I pointed out earlier they are managing a meter an hour across a limited front in areas that favor the Russians. they need to get to at least 8 or more meters an hour across the ENTIRE front to have a chance at 5%.

 

[LSU-SIU]

Your retreat narrative doesn't conform to reality.

Reality is that the conflict has been locked in a stalemate with respect to land changes. The only relevant changes of note in the past year are changes in assets.

That will be changing but its meaningless as they will run out of meat well before a decade+.

 

[volbound1700]

The land gains/losses are meaningless as a whole, but land losses/gains will be going up due to positions being lost on the high ground... they will have to retreat further back as this continues. These were the best defended areas which they were preparing since 2014. I would say at current pace you're looking at a decade+ (I think I said a year or two ago - 1-2 decades) but that assumes unlimited ammo and meat - which is unlikely. Land gains are possible in the 5-10% range per year assuming the Ukraine can start cloning people for the ditch, without more meat the whole front could collapse. There is no move or moves that Ukraine can make to regain what is being lost, it just simply doesn't exist... its not large areas at the moment, which is why the present is the best time to strike a deal. The situation isn't going to get better for them.

The issue with your argument is that Ukraine has also gained back or taken territory during this time span as well. They even crossed the Russian border near Belgorod. I would say overall, Russia is doing slightly better (and they should due to their enormous advantages going into it) but they have lost a little more in this war.

 

[PKT_VOL]

That will be changing but its meaningless as they will run out of meat well before a decade+.

Typically, that ails the invader side of the equation.

As long as the defenders have ammo, they typically will stomach losses better than the invaders.

 

[volbound1700]

Typically, that ails the invader side of the equation.

As long as the defenders have ammo, they typically will stomach losses better than the invaders.

Putin's regime may not be able to survive a decade long war; especially if Putin dies before then (which could happen). I think they will eventually have to negotiate a peace. I think Ukraine may have to give up some land to get there.

 

[LSU-SIU]

Most of the time faster and more cost effective for them to just take a whole building down than to go into the building or area with personnel. Literally, Israel hits the building with two JDAMs, area clear for 100 yards in seconds. No risk to personnel or equipment, dummy bombs which are cost effective. Russia risks personnel to create a cauldron, different situation so there is more risk... Russia will still sustain losses but nothing like trying to clear out a whole town or city.... those numbers would be drastic high.

PKT, yup.... invaders are at a disadvantage... huge disadvantage. Israel and Russia are playing real war.

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

That simply isn't true.

While this conflict has illuminated supply chain issues, there is no substitute for real combat data against near-peer adversaries that the weapon systems were designed for. You can glean only so much from range testing or computer simulations.

Beyond that, strategic information such as how drones can be deployed and counteracted is invaluable for the same reasons.

Again, going back to my original statement, we don't have the STEM graduates that can take this info and design the next generation of weapons more do we have the manufacturing base. You are seeing that The West is struggling to keep up with production of 155mm artillery shells and the number of cheap drones. The lead time needed to get this close to Russia's level, you need to have a trained workforce and the facilities to make the widgets. Plus, this would require a change in MICs business model of low volume/high priced weapons systems. While Houthis/Iranians and Russia are using high volume/low cost drones, we are sending out $30 million Reapers.

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

Terrorism and nukes is all they have, you are right. And I wouldn't limit geography for either to occur in Ukraine or Russia. These guys are capable and willing to pull a false flag within a NATO country. Just when Germany was marching the streets and Scholz was beginning to get weak knees in September 2022 regarding these ridiculous sanctions, they blew up Nordstream. I would not put it past them to manufacture consent in the US (if Congress doesn't pass the $61 billion) or Europe (Hungary, Slovakia or non-member Serbia) if one of these countries prevents these guys from escalating in Ukraine. They'll probably even molest on of their flunkies like Poland or a Baltic state with some false flag... or hell, Germany is occupied and won't fight back, so they may just double tap them again.

And as I was posting this earlier, I saw that the Ukrainians had attacked the ZNPP again. I have no idea what they intend to gain by doing this foolishness, but it is just another example of them resorting to terrorism.

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

I will remind you of that when you post your nonsense in the other thread.

Sure, whatever.

 

[volbound1700]

Again, going back to my original statement, we don't have the STEM graduates that can take this info and design the next generation of weapons more do we have the manufacturing base. You are seeing that The West is struggling to keep up with production of 155mm artillery shells and the number of cheap drones. The lead time needed to get this close to Russia's level, you need to have a trained workforce and the facilities to make the widgets. Plus, this would require a change in MICs business model of low volume/high priced weapons systems. While Houthis/Iranians and Russia are using high volume/low cost drones, we are sending out $30 million Reapers.

Evidence? Sure, I could believe US society is declining but NATO is a massive apparatus. Poland, for example, shows 0 of the moral decline that the USA is experience and they are in NATO and continues to improve their armed forces. Poland is a definite threat to Russia if a war broke out.

Other nations fit that bill as well. Russia, going solo, is ridiculous foreign policy and you know it. Russia would be better serve finding a few European Allies. They can't fight all of Europe (and the USA plus Canada).

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

This is the dumbest thing I've read on VN in a while. Congrats.

He's correct, however. You have Ukrainians complaing about the Western equipment being too fragile and maintenance intensive.

 

[BeardedVol]

Again, going back to my original statement, we don't have the STEM graduates that can take this info and design the next generation of weapons more do we have the manufacturing base. You are seeing that The West is struggling to keep up with production of 155mm artillery shells and the number of cheap drones. The lead time needed to get this close to Russia's level, you need to have a trained workforce and the facilities to make the widgets. Plus, this would require a change in MICs business model of low volume/high priced weapons systems. While Houthis/Iranians and Russia are using high volume/low cost drones, we are sending out $30 million Reapers.

By "we" you mean Russia, right?

College Graduation Statistics [2023]: Total Graduates per Year

Find college graduation statistics, including the annual number of college graduates by state, degree, discipline, and demographics.

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[volbound1700]

By "we" you mean Russia, right?

View attachment 632954

College Graduation Statistics [2023]: Total Graduates per Year

Find college graduation statistics, including the annual number of college graduates by state, degree, discipline, and demographics.

educationdata.org

People crap on younger generations a lot but there are a lot of good people still there. I was a Sunday School and in the distant past even a substitute teacher, between jobs, for Public School system (granted it was 12-13 years ago), I didn't think the younger generation was any worse than what I grew up with.

 

[LouderVol]

And as I was posting this earlier, I saw that the Ukrainians had attacked the ZNPP again. I have no idea what they intend to gain by doing this foolishness, but it is just another example of them resorting to terrorism.

On this I will agree. It was dumb when the Russians were playing around with Ukrainian nuclear energy facilities, and it is dumb when the Ukrainians do it.

its slightly more understandable from the losing side as a reality of war situation. especially as it wouldn't compromise the battlefield like the Ukrainian one.

granted, depending on what is being hit, there may be no risk of radiation or a coolant failure like there was in Ukraine, but its a really dangerous game with little upside.

Ukraine causing a nuclear radiation disaster would quickly lose them any public support, even if it happens in Russia.

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

Your retreat narrative doesn't conform to reality.

Reality is that the conflict has been locked in a stalemate with respect to land changes. The only relevant changes of note in the past year are changes in assets.

What else matters besides men and machines? If you out man and out gun an adversary, you have a good chance of winning. Ukraine has lost 1000 men/day since the beginning of the year and the Russians have gained 1000/day in the same period.

Also, Russia the luxury of not being driven by a timetable. They don't have to take chances and make big advances that could rack up losses. They can go slow. The West has all of the clocks, but Russia has all of the time.

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

Typically, that ails the invader side of the equation.

As long as the defenders have ammo, they typically will stomach losses better than the invaders.

Remember this if we decide to fight Iran or China.

 

[LSU-SIU]

And as I was posting this earlier, I saw that the Ukrainians had attacked the ZNPP again. I have no idea what they intend to gain by doing this foolishness, but it is just another example of them resorting to terrorism.

Well, Ice Cream Joe told them to lay off the gasoline refineries so they upped the ante, the strange thing is that was one way of at least having some type of impact with all the desperation attempts. Of course, Joe needs to get re-elected. I literally mentioned the nuclear power plant attack potential a few hours before they did it, I'm not surprised. Probably a good way for them to see if those Russian hypersonic missiles really can carry tactical warheads.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRus...ov_if_congress_does_not_help_ukraine_ukraine/

On another note.

What do you need? And how does that help? More shells will slow the timetable but is unlikely to change the direction, regardless its much easier to print US dollars with a keystroke than to manufacture artillery shells. You don't need $60 billion worth of artillery shells anyway.

 

[Pennheel]

From what I've read on here and other places, this is at a stalemate with no end in sight. They're two years in,and hopefully this doesn't drag on like the stalemate between Iran and Iraq in the 80s.

 

[LSU-SIU]

From what I've read on here and other places, this is at a stalemate with no end in sight. They're two years in,and hopefully this doesn't drag on like the stalemate between Iran and Iraq in the 80s.

It was a stalemate between the United States (and NATO allies) and goat-herders for 20 years in Afghanistan, the goat herders finally won. This can drag on for a decade+ if the Ukraine can find a steady stream of stupid men to go into ditches and is able to start getting artillery shells in mass, otherwise the pace will likely pickup as you need men and ammo to have a chance in a real war. That is a big "if".

War isn't meant to be exciting, after the failed takeover of Kiev in 2022, I doubt Russia wants to move fast again. Probably the worse thing Russia could do is overextend.

Good ole meat grinding, the problem is.... one side has tons more meat and better (and more) grinders at this point than the other side.

P.S. I would think Russia is at the unconditional surrender point of the discussion, I might be wrong, but they have to realize this isn't going to end ever unless they bring it to a final conclusion. (just my take) I think that is very unfortunate for the people that live there.

 

[LouderVol]

What else matters besides men and machines? If you out man and out gun an adversary, you have a good chance of winning. Ukraine has lost 1000 men/day since the beginning of the year and the Russians have gained 1000/day in the same period.

Also, Russia the luxury of not being driven by a timetable. They don't have to take chances and make big advances that could rack up losses. They can go slow. The West has all of the clocks, but Russia has all of the time.

other conflicts. Russia is robbing Peter to pay Paul in order to stay in the war with Ukraine. There is a reason I keep telling you this is the WInter War.

and as always I will need to see you back up that claim that somehow Russia is gaining 1000 a day. Every report I have read has Russia drastically decreasing its deployment's elsewhere.

The Kaliningrad Garrison went from the 11th Army Group of about 12k fighting men. to now its one battalion of electronic warfare, up to 1000 men, and some other support companies. there is not a single front line fighting force in Kaliningrad. Even their air defense forces have been stripped.

Finland has reported that the number of Russian border guards with them AFTER they joined NATO has dropped by two thirds.

I have seen some suggestions that even the Siberian and far eastern garrisons have been reduced by almost 40% and rerouted to Ukraine.

Russia defaulted on the defensive alliance with Armenia after they couldn't even maintain 2000 men there to keep the peace with Azerbaijan. Same thing with both South and North Ossentia. I haven't seen anything about a change or update of Transnistria, but I could see that staying put considering its location.

They lost a good chunk of the manpower they were relying on Wagner to provide, yeah they got some of those guys after the coup, but more left than stayed.

Even the Chechens have been lax in their support of the actual war effort. of course its debatable if the main Chechen force ever actually reached the front lines.

I keep saying it, but there is no way Russia is a threat to the West. They have had to dedicate SO much of their entire expanded military to a pretty small front with Ukraine. There is no way they could make manage a bigger front against stronger militaries.

 

[Rocky_Top_Vol13]

 

[MG1968]

other conflicts. Russia is robbing Peter to pay Paul in order to stay in the war with Ukraine. There is a reason I keep telling you this is the WInter War.

and as always I will need to see you back up that claim that somehow Russia is gaining 1000 a day. Every report I have read has Russia drastically decreasing its deployment's elsewhere.

The Kaliningrad Garrison went from the 11th Army Group of about 12k fighting men. to now its one battalion of electronic warfare, up to 1000 men, and some other support companies. there is not a single front line fighting force in Kaliningrad. Even their air defense forces have been stripped.

Finland has reported that the number of Russian border guards with them AFTER they joined NATO has dropped by two thirds.

I have seen some suggestions that even the Siberian and far eastern garrisons have been reduced by almost 40% and rerouted to Ukraine.

Russia defaulted on the defensive alliance with Armenia after they couldn't even maintain 2000 men there to keep the peace with Azerbaijan. Same thing with both South and North Ossentia. I haven't seen anything about a change or update of Transnistria, but I could see that staying put considering its location.

They lost a good chunk of the manpower they were relying on Wagner to provide, yeah they got some of those guys after the coup, but more left than stayed.

Even the Chechens have been lax in their support of the actual war effort. of course its debatable if the main Chechen force ever actually reached the front lines.

I keep saying it, but there is no way Russia is a threat to the West. They have had to dedicate SO much of their entire expanded military to a pretty small front with Ukraine. There is no way they could make manage a bigger front against stronger militaries.

Even militaries that lack the benefit of STEM graduates designing and building next-gen weapons systems?

Because, according to Ras, our current military technology sector is filled with SPED graduates still using crayons and licking the windows.