War in Ukraine

#77,576
#77,576
LouderVol said:
Ukraine is currently at war. and with nations like France all talking mad game, if Ukraine joined NATO while at war, it would quickly draw in other NATO nations.
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I think there would be a lot of push back from other NATO nations realizing that’s what would be expected of them other than funding. It’s a back door, manipulative move I don’t think other NATO members would appreciate. I don’t see it happening. JMO.
 
#77,580
#77,580
LouderVol said:
Its been almost 11 months. The Russians are taking an AVERAGE of a METER an hour, for a year. this is what the grand Russian victory looks like. Taking two steps forward in an hour. against an enemy they have apparently completely destroyed, and left with no weapons or equipment to fight back. the west has run out of the ability to prop up Ukraine, and Russia is only able to take a METER AN HOUR.
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And again, you are determining victory how much territory is taken over a period of time when the purpose of the slow methodical advances is to kill Ukrainians, remove equipment off the lines and preserve their own forces.
 
#77,581
#77,581
Vol737 said:
I think there would be a lot of push back from other NATO nations realizing that’s what would be expected of them other than funding. It’s a back door, manipulative move I don’t think other NATO members would appreciate. I don’t see it happening. JMO.
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The cynic in me thinks that these NATO clowns are hoping to drive Russia to a ceasefire agreement. And once Russia agrees to a ceasefire, they will quickly add Ukraine into NATO... then dare Russia to do anything as NATO rearms Ukraine.

The Russians will not agree to any ceasefire, but I think these clowns are cooking up ideas like this in Brussels/DC.
 
#77,582
#77,582
Rasputin_Vol said:
And Novomikhailivka...
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My guess is the land loss rate will be in the 5-10% per year at current rate of loss, but land loss is not all that important, imo due to the lack of meat. Of course, that is assuming the Ukraine can continue to supply a continuous meat supply to receive those FABs and shells between the eyes. If the Ukraine ever receives 155mm shells to be able to burn 10-20k shells per day than that would be an example of a change that would impact the timetable. If Russia has future issues of delivery of FABs in bulk than something like that would impact the timetable. (just an example) How many FABs to bring Kharkiv to the ground?

When the Ukrainians retreat from these village/towns/cities - its land they will most likely never get back. Other than shells, its hard to imagine how any other weapon system has a great impact on the timetable. Massive amount of shells could slow down what is occurring further but they don't really exist and most likely won't exist for years.... they would still need a massive amount of meat to fill the ditches unless they can stop the FABs.

My further guess is more crazy stuff if the situation gets worse on the front lines - dirty nuke or real nuke, bomb nuclear power plants, more terrorist acts, etc. What else they got? What systems will help?
 
#77,583
#77,583
LSU-SIU said:
My further guess is more crazy stuff if the situation gets worse on the front lines - dirty nuke or real nuke, bomb nuclear power plants, more terrorist acts, etc. What else they got? What systems will help?
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Terrorism and nukes is all they have, you are right. And I wouldn't limit geography for either to occur in Ukraine or Russia. These guys are capable and willing to pull a false flag within a NATO country. Just when Germany was marching the streets and Scholz was beginning to get weak knees in September 2022 regarding these ridiculous sanctions, they blew up Nordstream. I would not put it past them to manufacture consent in the US (if Congress doesn't pass the $61 billion) or Europe (Hungary, Slovakia or non-member Serbia) if one of these countries prevents these guys from escalating in Ukraine. They'll probably even molest on of their flunkies like Poland or a Baltic state with some false flag... or hell, Germany is occupied and won't fight back, so they may just double tap them again.
 
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#77,584
#77,584
LSU-SIU said:
My guess is the land loss rate will be in the 5-10% per year at current rate of loss, but land loss is not all that important, imo due to the lack of meat. Of course, that is assuming the Ukraine can continue to supply a continuous meat supply to receive those FABs and shells between the eyes. If the Ukraine ever receives 155mm shells to be able to burn 10-20k shells per day than that would be an example of a change that would impact the timetable. If Russia has future issues of delivery of FABs in bulk than something like that would impact the timetable. (just an example) How many FABs to bring Kharkiv to the ground?

When the Ukrainians retreat from these village/towns/cities - its land they will most likely never get back. Other than shells, its hard to imagine how any other weapon system has a great impact on the timetable. Massive amount of shells could slow down what is occurring further but they don't really exist and most likely won't exist for years.... they would still need a massive amount of meat to fill the ditches unless they can stop the FABs.

My further guess is more crazy stuff if the situation gets worse on the front lines - dirty nuke or real nuke, bomb nuclear power plants, more terrorist acts, etc. What else they got? What systems will help?
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So you are telling me that if Russia forces the Ukrainians to retreat from the land, then they plan on keeping it and not giving it back to them? 😱
I need to check with Ras to see if this is okay.
 
#77,585
#77,585
jp1 said:
So you are telling me that if Russia forces the Ukrainians to retreat from the land, then they plan on keeping it and not giving it back to them? 😱
I need to check with Ras to see if this is okay.
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No, what I am saying is even through force they realistically won't get the land back, the best time to get a deal done was yesterday, and the day before that and the day before that, etc.

If all you are doing is retreating than a deal protecting what you have today is better than waiting till tomorrow.
 
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#77,586
#77,586
jp1 said:
So you are telling me that if Russia forces the Ukrainians to retreat from the land, then they plan on keeping it and not giving it back to them? 😱
I need to check with Ras to see if this is okay.
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If the Israelis can have a 2000 year old claim on Israel, than why can't the Russians cash in their 30 year claim on the eastern and southern portions of Ukraine that were their lands since Catherine the Great?

I'm all for the native people on their land having self-determination. The coup in 2014 did not sit well with these eastern oblasts and they wanted to join Russia. Kyiv ended up going to war with them because of that.
 
#77,587
#77,587
volbound1700 said:
I even wonder how much a "threat" Russia was even during the Cold War. Russia hasn't done that great at wars, historically. Their big wins over Hitler and Napoleon relied on their opponents getting bogged down in logistical/attrition nightmares due to the size and weather of Russia.

Russia did well in the 7-years war as well but most of the other wars in history, Russia has heavily underperformed, even when having superior numbers:

1. Russo-Japanese War
2. Crimean War
3. Ukraine War
4. Winter War with Finland
5. Poland 1920
6. World War 1

Even World War 2 is still up to debate. Without lend-lease equipment and USA/British using bombing raids on Germany that forced the Luftwaffe away from Russia airspace, the war might have been a lot different.

Hitler/Germany got overextended with air war over Germany, North Africa Campaign, U-Boat Campaign, and Eastern Front.
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don't forget all the dumb that Italy dragged Germany into. Greece in particular delayed Barbarossa. cost them a couple divisions, supplies, and importantly time.
 
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#77,588
#77,588
Rasputin_Vol said:
If the Israelis can have a 2000 year old claim on Israel, than why can't the Russians cash in their 30 year claim on the eastern and southern portions of Ukraine that were their lands since Catherine the Great?

I'm all for the native people on their land having self-determination. The coup in 2014 did not sit well with these eastern oblasts and they wanted to join Russia. Kyiv ended up going to war with them because of that.
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Just making sure you are consistent with your arguments between threads. I bet it's a chore keeping it all straight. 😂😂
 
#77,589
#77,589
Rasputin_Vol said:
The cynic in me thinks that these NATO clowns are hoping to drive Russia to a ceasefire agreement. And once Russia agrees to a ceasefire, they will quickly add Ukraine into NATO... then dare Russia to do anything as NATO rearms Ukraine.

The Russians will not agree to any ceasefire, but I think these clowns are cooking up ideas like this in Brussels/DC.
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I would say anything is on the table when it comes to govts/political/defense organizations. Truth continues to be stranger than fiction in today’s world.
 
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#77,591
#77,591
Rasputin_Vol said:
The only intel and info we are going to be able to gather is the fact that we need to increase our indigenous industrial/manufacturing base and we need to increase the number of STEM graduates.
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That simply isn't true.

While this conflict has illuminated supply chain issues, there is no substitute for real combat data against near-peer adversaries that the weapon systems were designed for. You can glean only so much from range testing or computer simulations.

Beyond that, strategic information such as how drones can be deployed and counteracted is invaluable for the same reasons.
 
#77,593
#77,593
Rasputin_Vol said:
And again, you are determining victory how much territory is taken over a period of time when the purpose of the slow methodical advances is to kill Ukrainians, remove equipment off the lines and preserve their own forces.
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They could 100% achieve the same thing and not take a step forward. they never even needed to cross the border. heck the Russian's would probably have won by now if they had done that. maybe they take the first 10 miles or so so they can operate in foreign territory to avoid damage at home.

as long as the Russians are pushing forward they are not just out to kill Ukrainians and save Russians. they will be losing men with every step, and doing it slowly just makes it bloodier, for both, in the end.

you are the one who brought up these great break thrus that Russia made at Bakhmut and Avdiivka. about how those were big lynchpins in the war that was going to break Ukraines defenses and cause total collapse. you were also just bragging up taking another little town. clearly it matters to you.

Time favors the defender. time favors the weaker side. these are as close as it gets to a fundamental truth when it comes to war. Russia may still be winning, and win in the end; but this is an ineffective way to go about it.
 
#77,594
#77,594
LouderVol said:
where is this EU only deal? Surely it must have come about and been readily signed in after Yanukovych left?
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There was no EU only deal, @Rasputin_Vol is flat out lying on this one. It was Russia that was demanding the Ukraine only join their customs union, and not engage in free trade with the EU, so much so, that he embargoed Ukrainian goods to try and force them to do so.

Russian embargo of Ukrainian goods - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
www.nytimes.com

Facing Russian Threat, Ukraine Halts Plans for Deals with E.U. (Published 2013)

The decision largely scuttles what had been the European Union’s most important foreign policy initiative: an ambitious effort to draw in former Soviet republics.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com

www.rferl.org

Russia Squeezes Kyiv Over EU Hopes

Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov says Ukraine cannot be in the European Union and the Russian-led Customs Union at the same time.
www.rferl.org www.rferl.org
 
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#77,595
#77,595
Rasputin_Vol said:
Terrorism and nukes is all they have, you are right. And I wouldn't limit geography for either to occur in Ukraine or Russia. These guys are capable and willing to pull a false flag within a NATO country. Just when Germany was marching the streets and Scholz was beginning to get weak knees in September 2022 regarding these ridiculous sanctions, they blew up Nordstream. I would not put it past them to manufacture consent in the US (if Congress doesn't pass the $61 billion) or Europe (Hungary, Slovakia or non-member Serbia) if one of these countries prevents these guys from escalating in Ukraine. They'll probably even molest on of their flunkies like Poland or a Baltic state with some false flag... or hell, Germany is occupied and won't fight back, so they may just double tap them again.
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nordstream didn't move the needle.

they have already debunked a perfect chance for a false flag earlier in the war when the Ukrainians claimed their AA missile that killed two Poles was Russian.

the western invasion of Lviv never happened.

the Russians did invade Ukraine in 2022.
 
#77,596
#77,596
LSU-SIU said:
Hypersonics are expensive, unless its target is very valuable they won't be used.... they have them but they don't have thousands of them.

Either way, let's say after 3-5 years and you have some F-35s - what exactly is their purpose? Unless you have defensive positions near a line to attack, exactly what they going to be used for?
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I was agreeing with you that F-35s won't make a huge difference in this war other than beat up the Russian air force some to give you PR victories. Russia is mostly relying on ground forces and not air power like the USA does. This war really makes you appreciate how strong USA war machine is when you consider their ability to take over areas like Afghanistan and Iraq in short periods.

This is why all the USA's enemies resort to guerilla warfare/irregular wars to fight the USA.
 
#77,597
#77,597
Rasputin_Vol said:
If the Israelis can have a 2000 year old claim on Israel, than why can't the Russians cash in their 30 year claim on the eastern and southern portions of Ukraine that were their lands since Catherine the Great?

I'm all for the native people on their land having self-determination. The coup in 2014 did not sit well with these eastern oblasts and they wanted to join Russia. Kyiv ended up going to war with them because of that.
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How do you know that Russia is the legitimate ruler to Czarist Russian Empire? Ukraine could be the legitimate successor :).

By the way, weren't Catherine and Peter the Great (arguably two greatest Russian leaders ever) all about working with Europe and fighting off Islam? You defend Islam and hate on the West. Basically you are the total opposite of their belief system.
 
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#77,599
#77,599
LSU-SIU said:
No, what I am saying is even through force they realistically won't get the land back, the best time to get a deal done was yesterday, and the day before that and the day before that, etc.

If all you are doing is retreating than a deal protecting what you have today is better than waiting till tomorrow.
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Reality.

1712606873455.png
 
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#77,600
#77,600
volbound1700 said:
How do you know that Russia is the legitimate ruler to Czarist Russian Empire? Ukraine could be the legitimate successor :).

By the way, weren't Catherine and Peter the Great (arguably two greatest Russian leaders ever) all about working with Europe and fighting off Islam? You defend Islam and hate on the West. Basically you are the total opposite of their belief system.
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Russia has gone through at least 3 or 4 different coups since then. And we all know how much a coup de-legitifies a country in the eyes of Ras.

I always love when Catherine the Prussian, I mean Great, gets brought up. She was a german princess who married the legitimate heir to the throne. after they took power, she lead a coup against her Russian husband, and kicked him out of power. and what made her so "Great" was that she acted very much like a Prussian/European and not a Russian.
 
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