Vols are a 28 point underdog?

[UT IE 95]

You keep thinking that oddmakers are handicapping anything other than what the public will do and you'll keep showing you don't have the faintest idea what you're talking about.

My bank roll supports that I understand the system just fine.

 

[UT IE 95]

Considering you waved the UCLA line around in the air as evidence that Kiffin choked last weekend, I can't say that I'm surprised to see that you don't know how point spreads get set.

UT should have won by 10.

 

[hatvol96]

My bank roll supports that I understand the system just fine.

I bet it does. I'm sure Roxy and the boys out in Vegas start shifting lines as soon as they hear you are "on" a game.

 

[UT IE 95]

I bet it does. I'm sure Roxy and the boys out in Vegas start shifting lines as soon as they hear you are "on" a game.

drama. they don't care about nickles and dimes.

 

[SGMVols]

UT should have won by 10.

Based on what? The beatdown of Western Kentucky High School means nothing.

 

[dsbyrd]

And the way they do that is by setting the number close to what the score will be. When they make a mistake, hammer the number and cash in.

"There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers' prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all - their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as 'dividing the action')."

Pregame.com Betting Lines - How Betting Lines and Point Spreads Are Made

 

[UT IE 95]

"There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers' prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all - their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as 'dividing the action')."

Pregame.com Betting Lines - How Betting Lines and Point Spreads Are Made

In the same article:

Power ratings are the oddsmaker's value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game's power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team's local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

I don't see public perception in the line setting at all.

If the spread is moved as factor of public action, that's an opportunity for a savy bettor to cash in.

 

[RockHillOrange]

30 when I took the points at Sports Book

 

[GatorRick]

I am as diehard of a gator fan as any, but I took Tn and the points (I only got 26)... the potential weather, the fact that TN has a good (maybe great) defense, and that I think we win, but not in a blowout, led me to that decision...

however, if we do cover and a I lose a few $'s, I won't be upset

 

[turn3]

If we lose how close does the final score need to be for us to have a moral victory?

 

[dsbyrd]

I don't see public perception in the line setting at all.

I don't see your point, but this is getting tedious.

The point spread is intended to divide the action into roughly half betting on one team, and half on the other. How people bet is determined by their perception of the likely outcome after factoring in the spread. If the initial spread is not evenly dividing the action (because public perception is contrary to the odds makers initial prediction) the spread is adjusted.

Do you dispute this?

 

[UT IE 95]

I don't see your point, but this is getting tedious.

The point spread is intended to divide the action into roughly half betting on one team, and half on the other. How people bet is determined by their perception of the likely outcome after factoring in the spread. If the initial spread is not evenly dividing the action (because public perception is contrary to the odds makers initial prediction) the spread is adjusted.

Do you dispute this?

I do not dispute. The way they get even action is to as closely as possible set the handicap (point spread) to accurately predict the score.

A great example is the public driving an accurate spread the wrong way. 10 minutes before kickoff the wise guys hammer the line and the book takes a bath. Happens every Saturday and Sunday.