Vols are a 28 point underdog?

#26
#26
I can't believe Tennessee is a 29.5 point underdog. Never thought that I would see that day. It's gonna be a hell of a time!!
 
#28
#28
VolsZealot said:
If he is getting the 30 points he has a good chance of getting that ps3. If crompton can play just ok then I dont think the gators can win by 30.
If he throws another 4ints then getting 30 might not be enough.
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If he's getting 35 points he's still losing his 360. I bleed orange, but I bet with my brain. UF covers this easy.
 
#29
#29
+30 on WSEX.com

I'm really on the fence about this. I hope i'm wrong, but i don't see the offense staying on the field much, resulting in a fatigued defense against a team who has pledged to run up the score.
 
#31
#31
rocks said:
Vegas insiders don't rely on ESPN...
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Nor do they rely on who they think will win or lose. Someone will correct me if I am wrong, but I think the point spread merely reflects the betting trends. The idea is to even the bets on each side so the bookmakers don't lose their shirts.

If the betting public perceived the teams equally matched and the bets were coming in evenly on both sides, there would be no spread. When one team is perceived as a favorite, a spread is offered, and adjusted, until the betting evens out.
 
#32
#32
dsbyrd said:
Nor do they rely on who they think will win or lose. Someone will correct me if I am wrong, but I think the point spread merely reflects the betting trends. The idea is to even the bets on each side so the bookmakers don't lose their shirts.

If the betting public perceived the teams equally matched and the bets were coming in evenly on both sides, there would be no spread. When one team is perceived as a favorite, a spread is offered, and adjusted, until the betting evens out.
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No one will correct you because you are correct. The oddsmakers are in no way concerned with whether the lines they set are accurate predictors of the games. Rather, the lines are set to be accurate predictors of the gambling public's perception of the outcome of those games.

When the oddsmakers fail in that regard and the general gambling public puts a lot of money on a line, the line will then shift. A general rule of thumb from what I understand is that a casino will shift a line a half point for every half million on a given side.

The Vegas business model is quite simple. Sportsbooks are not in the business of gambling...funny as that may sound. They are in the business of taking 10 percent off the top.

Realizing that you, Joe Gambler, are betting against the general public -- and not some vegas guru who knows all the answers -- is fundamental.
 
#33
#33
VolsZealot said:
If he is getting the 30 points he has a good chance of getting that ps3. If crompton can play just ok then I dont think the gators can win by 30.
If he throws another 4ints then getting 30 might not be enough.
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i got 30 points and im a girl
 
#34
#34
That's why it's so big - so that people will actually put money on both sides of this game. If the line were 13, everybody would be betting on the gators!
 
#36
#36
Prediction: Florida does not beat Ut by 29.5 and the govt has to send an extra stimulus check to Florida so their kids won't starve.
 
#37
#37
dsbyrd said:
Nor do they rely on who they think will win or lose. Someone will correct me if I am wrong, but I think the point spread merely reflects the betting trends. The idea is to even the bets on each side so the bookmakers don't lose their shirts.

If the betting public perceived the teams equally matched and the bets were coming in evenly on both sides, there would be no spread. When one team is perceived as a favorite, a spread is offered, and adjusted, until the betting evens out.
Click to expand...

You're necessarily wrong, but it's not totally disconnected from the game score. There are two available bets on a game, the spread and the total.

Based on the these two values you can figure out what the experts are predicting the outcome of the game to be. In this case they are predicting something in the neighborhood of 42-10 Gators. If you think either team will score more than that, bet the over. If you think UT will hold UF under 42 points, take the Vols. If you think UF holds UT under 10 points, take the Gators.

If there is not solid evidence of these possibilities occuring, then don't bet.
 
#39
#39
UT IE 95 said:
You're necessarily wrong, but it's not totally disconnected from the game score. There are two available bets on a game, the spread and the total.

Based on the these two values you can figure out what the experts are predicting the outcome of the game to be. In this case they are predicting something in the neighborhood of 42-10 Gators. If you think either team will score more than that, bet the over. If you think UT will hold UF under 42 points, take the Vols. If you think UF holds UT under 10 points, take the Gators.

If there is not solid evidence of these possibilities occuring, then don't bet.
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He's necessarily wrong? Did you mean to write 'not necessarily'?
 
#40
#40
UT IE 95 said:
Based on the these two values you can figure out what the experts are predicting the outcome of the game to be. In this case they are predicting something in the neighborhood of 42-10 Gators. If you think either team will score more than that, bet the over. If you think UT will hold UF under 42 points, take the Vols. If you think UF holds UT under 10 points, take the Gators.
.
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I should reiterate that the lines in no way reflect what experts think the outcome of a particular game will be.

As such, the above-quoted poster is simply incorrect. The lines are meant to get even money on both sides.
 
#41
#41
- If Crompton has another stinker, forget it. Florida blows us out. The only bright spot being that we'll probably find out if Stephens is a better game-day QB, starting next week.
- But if Crompton can just (please, Lord) play smart...the defense plays up to their potential...and we win the turnover battle, then maybe, just maybe, we can hang in there.

Hope springs eternal.

Go Vols.
 
#42
#42
so yet again proud of my wife for picking the score again...she was a lot closer than me last week...This week she picked Tennessee 10 Florida 9...She has no idea what she is picking, but I love her and I am proud of her for trying...GO VOLS!
 
#43
#43
Only one game in the country has a spread larger than ours: Rice v. OSU. Really? We're a Rice? This spread can't be right. The odds makers have to be leveraging all the hype in this game and playing on fan's emotions.
 
#45
#45
UT IE 95 said:
You're necessarily wrong, but it's not totally disconnected from the game score. There are two available bets on a game, the spread and the total.

Based on the these two values you can figure out what the experts are predicting the outcome of the game to be. In this case they are predicting something in the neighborhood of 42-10 Gators. If you think either team will score more than that, bet the over. If you think UT will hold UF under 42 points, take the Vols. If you think UF holds UT under 10 points, take the Gators.

If there is not solid evidence of these possibilities occuring, then don't bet.
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The oddsmakers aren't making any prediction other than what numbers will draw equal action on the teams in a given game.
 
#46
#46
kidbourbon said:
I should reiterate that the lines in no way reflect what experts think the outcome of a particular game will be.

As such, the above-quoted poster is simply incorrect. The lines are meant to get even money on both sides.
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That is exactly what they are doing, is predicting the score and setting the line to make it a tie. That's why it's called handicapping. When using the total, they are specifically making a score prediction.

You find a game where the line is not representative of the score, you bet on it.

You keep thinking the line is arbitrary and you'll keep paying the man.
 
#47
#47
hatvol96 said:
The oddsmakers aren't making any prediction other than what numbers will draw equal action on the teams in a given game.
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And the way they do that is by setting the number close to what the score will be. When they make a mistake, hammer the number and cash in.
 
#48
#48
UT IE 95 said:
You keep thinking the line is arbitrary and you'll keep paying the man.
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You keep thinking that oddmakers are handicapping anything other than what the public will do and you'll keep showing you don't have the faintest idea what you're talking about.
 
#49
#49
UT IE 95 said:
That is exactly what they are doing, is predicting the score and setting the line to make it a tie. That's why it's called handicapping. When using the total, they are specifically making a score prediction.
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Considering you waved the UCLA line around in the air as evidence that Kiffin choked last weekend, I can't say that I'm surprised to see that you don't know how point spreads get set.
 
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