I love we are number 1 in first rankings going into our last "toss up" game of year.
Say we lose by single possession (3-7 points) to UGA, we will drop to 4-5 spot. Based on current rankings, we would drop under two undefeated Michigan / Ohio State teams. When we finish our schedule at 11-1, ending regular season on 3 straight wins, one of those teams will finish 11-1 fresh off a loss. Would a 11-1 Michigan / Ohio State loser in a 2 vs 4 or 3 vs 4 matchup stay ranked higher than us with same record? I think not.
If we are 11-1 off 3 straight wins and Michigan / Ohio State are 11-1 off a loss, we would get a one spot bump in rankings.
What screws us is not TCU going 13-0. Its if Bama or Ole Miss win the SEC as a 1 loss team. That would mean UGA would be 12-1. In that scenario, It would go Ohio State / Michigan Winner (assuming they win Big Ten title), Clemson (assuming 13-0 ACC champ), and then SEC Title runner up UGA and SEC Champ from West.
As long as UGA would go 13-0 and win in Atlanta, I love our odds to make playoff at 11-1. Right now, there are basically 6 teams bidding for 4 playoff spots. I think committee made it clear that TCU would need major help to get in playoff. Right now, I don't think there are enough games left for those 6 teams to lose (realistically outside of historic upsets) for TCU to have a shot at a playoff spot.