Vegas over under on season 7.5

#27
#27
Rifleman said:
ESPN Power Index Win Probabilities High to Low

Indiana State 98.9%
Massachusetts 97.1%
Southern Mississippi 96.1%
vs Vanderbilt 80.8%
South Carolina 75.7%
Georgia Tech 68.3%
@ Missouri 64.3%
@ Kentucky 59.9%
vs Georgia 51.2%

LSU 47.1%
@ Florida 37.8%
@ Alabama 13.5%
Click to expand...

Based on those odds, we have a 38.28% chance of winning 7 or fewer games and a 61.72% chance of winning 8 or more games. So bet the over if you believe the ESPN Power Index.

The most likely outcome is 8 wins (28.26%)
 
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#29
#29
Barring a rash of injuries, I think have 9 or 10 regular season wins.
 
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#31
#31
Col_Cathcart said:
Based on those odds, we have a 38.28% chance of winning 7 or fewer games and a 61.72% chance of winning 8 or more games. So bet the over if you believe the ESPN Power Index.

The most likely outcome is 8 wins (28.26%)
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What method are you using to get that percentage?

Compound probability is P(A) and P(B)= P(A*B).

If you look at the probability of us winning all 7 games where FPI has us the most highly favored, that's a 24.8% chance.

Add the 8th game in and the probability of us winning the top 8 games where we are favored in FPI is only 14.8%
 
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#35
#35
BeardedVol said:
What method are you using to get that percentage?

Compound probability is P(A) and P(B)= P(A*B).

If you look at the probability of us winning all 7 games where FPI has us the most highly favored, that's a 24.8% chance.

Add the 8th game in and the probability of us winning the top 8 games where we are favored in FPI is only 14.8%
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It's not that simple when it's ANY 7 (or 8) games out of the 12. You have to consider the odds of each of the many combinations that can get you to 7 (or 8). For instacne:

-- we could win games 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7.
-- we could win games 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 8.
-- we could win games 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 9.
...
-- we could win games 3, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10 and 11.
-- we could win games 3, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10, and 12.
...
-- we could win games 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, and 11.
-- we could win games 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, and 12.
-- we could win games 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, and 12.

Naturally, there are a LOT of combinations in the ... places where I skipped a lot.

Oh, and if you're saying "7 or more" (or "8 or more"), you have to add in all the combinations that give you 8 or 9 or 10 or 11 or 12 wins, too, because they all count in the "more."

Takes a while to calculate. But that's how you do it when it doesn't matter WHICH 7 (or 8) (or more) are the wins.

It will, naturally, be a much larger number than the 24.8% and 14.8% chances you came up with, because you were only calculating for one of the many, many combinations. You picked out the most likely combination, sure, but still just one combination of many.
 
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#37
#37
Rifleman said:
ESPN Power Index Win Probabilities High to Low

Indiana State 98.9%
Massachusetts 97.1%
Southern Mississippi 96.1%
vs Vanderbilt 80.8%
South Carolina 75.7%
Georgia Tech 68.3%
@ Missouri 64.3%
@ Kentucky 59.9%

vs Georgia 51.2%
LSU 47.1%

@ Florida 37.8%
@ Alabama 13.5%
Click to expand...

IF (big if) you're an ESPN FPI acolyte, I translate the above into 8 should-wins, 2 pushes, and 2 shouldn't-wins.

Of course, I'd love to win them all. But if we win 9 (all the should-wins and split the 2 pushes), I'd be satisfied. Not as satisfied as winning the East, but satisfied nonetheless.
 
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#38
#38
Even if we lose to Florida and Georgia, we still win 8 games. Obviously, if we lose to Georgia Tech, our season is over. Will be a blood bath after that.
 
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#40
#40
volsforputin said:
Even if we lose to Florida and Georgia, we still win 8 games. Obviously, if we lose to Georgia Tech, our season is over. Will be a blood bath after that.
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if we lose to FL.GA. the odds favor more than 4 losses. AL. LSU will be loses too. SC,KY,MO,and vandy will not all be lay ups. GT,FL,GA
we must win 2 out of 3. i am with you on GT. if we lose the flood gates will be open.
 
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#41
#41
VFL-82-JP said:
It's not that simple when it's ANY 7 (or 8) games out of the 12. You have to consider the odds of each of the many combinations that can get you to 7 (or 8). For instacne:

-- we could win games 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7.
-- we could win games 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 8.
-- we could win games 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 9.
...
-- we could win games 3, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10 and 11.
-- we could win games 3, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10, and 12.
...
-- we could win games 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, and 11.
-- we could win games 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, and 12.
-- we could win games 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, and 12.

Naturally, there are a LOT of combinations in the ... places where I skipped a lot.

Oh, and if you're saying "7 or more" (or "8 or more"), you have to add in all the combinations that give you 8 or 9 or 10 or 11 or 12 wins, too, because they all count in the "more."

Takes a while to calculate. But that's how you do it when it doesn't matter WHICH 7 (or 8) (or more) are the wins.

It will, naturally, be a much larger number than the 24.8% and 14.8% chances you came up with, because you were only calculating for one of the many, many combinations. You picked out the most likely combination, sure, but still just one combination of many.
Click to expand...

Pick whichever games you want from the list, compound probability is still computed with the same equation. I just picked those game because they were the first in the list. Mind you, once you do start adding in the lower probability games, the compound probability becomes more dismal, so you should keep some tissues handy if you get triggered by math.:good!:
 
#42
#42
BeardedVol said:
Pick whichever games you want from the list, compound probability is still computed with the same equation. I just picked those game because they were the first in the list. Mind you, once you do start adding in the lower probability games, the compound probability becomes more dismal, so you should keep some tissues handy if you get triggered by math.:good!:
Click to expand...

Using these probabilities, you should expect 7.9 wins. Here's how you can calculate: for each game, choose a random number between 0 and 1; if the number is less than the "win probability, count it as a win (else, loss). Count up the wins for the season. Do this for a million seasons. The average number of wins is 7.9.

This assumes that 1) the win probabilities from the FPI are meaningful and 2) one game doesn't depend on any other game. Definitely 2) is not true; for example, losing a key player in Game 2 affects Game 3. Whether or not FPI takes this into account, I have no idea.
 
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#43
#43
And here are the probabilities of getting to at least n wins:
#wins %prob
1 99.999959
2 99.998747
3 99.976737
4 99.732950
5 98.084062
6 91.263209
7 73.984160
8 47.152834
9 21.601745
10 6.680720
11 1.340457
12 0.170262
 
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#45
#45
BeardedVol said:
Pick whichever games you want from the list, compound probability is still computed with the same equation. I just picked those game because they were the first in the list. Mind you, once you do start adding in the lower probability games, the compound probability becomes more dismal, so you should keep some tissues handy if you get triggered by math.:good!:
Click to expand...

Don't know why you felt the need to go the "keep some tissues handy" route. You asked how the chances are calculated for a particular question ("7 or more," "8 or more") and I answered your question.

According to Col Cathcart's reading of ESPN FPI, we have a roughly 62% chance of winning 8 or more games this fall. I don't see any Tennessee fan needing tissues for that. And I certainly won't need tissues to console myself for the possibility that you still don't understand how that 62% chance is properly calculated.
 
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#46
#46
I see our ceiling being 7 wins. Just need to somehow pull out a win against GT and come out injury free. A team like Bama can lose the level of talent we did and simply reload. We aren't at that level. I see a step back this year. 6-7 wins looks about right for our roster facing this schedule.
 
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#47
#47
VFL-82-JP said:
Don't know why you felt the need to go the "keep some tissues handy" route. You asked how the chances are calculated for a particular question ("7 or more," "8 or more") and I answered your question.

According to Col Cathcart's reading of ESPN FPI, we have a roughly 62% chance of winning 8 or more games this fall. I don't see any Tennessee fan needing tissues for that. And I certainly won't need tissues to console myself for the possibility that you still don't understand how that 62% chance is properly calculated.
Click to expand...

I think you do, but if you seriously don't, you should actually ask him why he did.
 
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#48
#48
If I was in Vegas, I would bet the over. IMO, UT will be 8-4 or 9-3 in the regular season.
 
#49
#49
VFL-82-JP said:
Don't know why you felt the need to go the "keep some tissues handy" route. You asked how the chances are calculated for a particular question ("7 or more," "8 or more") and I answered your question.

According to Col Cathcart's reading of ESPN FPI, we have a roughly 62% chance of winning 8 or more games this fall. I don't see any Tennessee fan needing tissues for that. And I certainly won't need tissues to console myself for the possibility that you still don't understand how that 62% chance is properly calculated.
Click to expand...

Feel free to post the methodology used to extrapolate UT having a 62% chance of winning 8+ (regular season) games in 2017. :popcorn:
 
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