UT's chance at March Madness

#151
#151
OrangeBalls said:
I don't see us making the dance unless Maymon gets a bionic leg over the holidays. If we do, I'll be somewhat shocked.
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Depends on what team shows up the rest of the seaon. The team that played Witcha State or the team that played the first half tonight?
 
#152
#152
zansdad said:
Depends on what team shows up the rest of the seaon. The team that played Witcha State or the team that played the first half tonight?
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This team had trouble scoring at home against an average team tonight. I see a lot of 40 point games in their future on the road in the SEC if Golden, McRae and Stokes don't step up every night. Amazing how much Maymon's absence has on this team. Hopefully, they'll get it together. Xavier and Tiger High will be tough tests although both can be beaten if we play like we did against Wichita St.
 
#153
#153
OrangeBalls said:
This team had trouble scoring at home against an average team tonight. I see a lot of 40 point games in their future on the road in the SEC if Golden, McRae and Stokes don't step up every night. Amazing how much Maymon's absence has on this team. Hopefully, they'll get it together. Xavier and Tiger High will be tough tests although both can be beaten if we play like we did against Wichita St.
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I agree, but you make it sound like other potentially 6-11 seed teams are running around with more than 3 proven options on offense. Yes those 3 have to show up almost every night but there are plenty of other tourney quality teams that have the same issue.
 
#154
#154
zansdad said:
I agree, but you make it sound like other potentially 6-11 seed teams are running around with more than 3 proven options on offense. Yes those 3 have to show up almost every night but there are plenty of other tourney quality teams that have the same issue.
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The problem is though, we really don't have 3 proven options. At least, not night in and night out. I hope I'm wrong, but I don't see this team making the dance. If they do, those three will have to carry the team or a Hall, McBee, Edwards or Richardson will have to have big games.
 
#155
#155
OrangeBalls said:
The problem is though, we really don't have 3 proven options. At least, not night in and night out. I hope I'm wrong, but I don't see this team making the dance. If they do, those three will have to carry the team or a Hall, McBee, Edwards or Richardson will have to have big games.
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Maybe proven was too optimistic a word. How about potential?

I would like to see Edwards with more minutes.
 
#156
#156
So we moved up even though their RPI was that bad, kind of surprises me.

Xavier's RPI is 51, and Memphis is 124. If you had to split them, which game is the bigger Zans? I assume Xavier would give us a nice bump, but losing to a RPI 124 at home would drop us significantly. (then again if they go on a run their RPI may be in the 50-60 range by end of year) On the flip side, losing to Xavier probably wouldn't drop us too much, but winning against Memphis probably doesn't raise our RPI much either.

We are at 67 this AM, seems like if we split the games, regardless of which is the W really, we are probably looking at being around 80?

TIA
 
#157
#157
bleedingTNorange said:
So we moved up even though their RPI was that bad, kind of surprises me.

Xavier's RPI is 51, and Memphis is 124. If you had to split them, which game is the bigger Zans? I assume Xavier would give us a nice bump, but losing to a RPI 124 at home would drop us significantly. (then again if they go on a run their RPI may be in the 50-60 range by end of year) On the flip side, losing to Xavier probably wouldn't drop us too much, but winning against Memphis probably doesn't raise our RPI much either.

We are at 67 this AM, seems like if we split the games, regardless of which is the W really, we are probably looking at being around 80?

TIA
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Short answer would be that because of how RPI is calculated, that if UT splits the next 2 games it doesn't matter which team is the win and which is the loss. The RPI would be the same. And either way, splitting at home would be a drop in RPI. Not to big a drop thought since both teams will help SOS. I don't think we would drop as far as 80 with a split.

From a quality win standpoint. I don't know. My gut says Memphis will move up in RPI as they start winning in C-USA while Xavier's might drop in a much tougher A-10. That might be biased by me looking at RPIforcast since they project Memphis' RPI to be 20 points better than Xavier by season's end.
 
#158
#158
zansdad said:
Short answer would be that because of how RPI is calculated, that if UT splits the next 2 games it doesn't matter which team is the win and which is the loss. The RPI would be the same. And either way, splitting at home would be a drop in RPI. Not to big a drop thought since both teams will help SOS. I don't think we would drop as far as 80 with a split.

From a quality win standpoint. I don't know. My gut says Memphis will move up in RPI as they start winning in C-USA while Xavier's might drop in a much tougher A-10. That might be biased by me looking at RPIforcast since they project Memphis' RPI to be 20 points better than Xavier by season's end.
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Appreciate the answer, kind of what I was thinking.

I was hoping for 5-1 on the 6 game home stand, we are 3-0 so far. So if we split the next 2 I'm ok with it, but need a win verse ole miss. Ole Miss is currently RPI #39, so I suppose one could argue that out of the next 3 that's the biggest game for UT. (best RPI team, plus a conference game)
 
#159
#159
Well lets just win both so we don't have to worry about it :D

But seriously, I'd rather lose to Xavier than Memphis but that's more of a pride thing than anything. And it makes me feel a bit better about us losing Nichols lol. (silly I know)

At the end of the year, I'd think Memphis will have a higher RPI than Xavier?
 
#160
#160
zansdad said:
I agree, but you make it sound like other potentially 6-11 seed teams are running around with more than 3 proven options on offense. Yes those 3 have to show up almost every night but there are plenty of other tourney quality teams that have the same issue.
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Most tourney bound teams have 4 to 5 guys that average double figures.
We may have found our 4th last night.
Richardson may be the key.
With this defense and Martin definitely making adjustments to his offense we may still have a chance.
Thought it was McRae that turned the game.
7 minutes left in the first and nothing falling he started splitting defenders and taking it to the glass.

Golden followed suit. Resulted in 14% shooting in the first and 53% in the second.
We may be learning to win.
 
#161
#161
bleedingTNorange said:
Appreciate the answer, kind of what I was thinking.

I was hoping for 5-1 on the 6 game home stand, we are 3-0 so far. So if we split the next 2 I'm ok with it, but need a win verse ole miss. Ole Miss is currently RPI #39, so I suppose one could argue that out of the next 3 that's the biggest game for UT. (best RPI team, plus a conference game)
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I agree on Ole Miss. Getting a conference opener at home is big. Gotta win it. Plus if they drop the Ole Miss game, with trips to Bama and UK next, UT could start 0-3 in SEC play. Not good.
 
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#163
#163
Shaun1985 said:
Well lets just win both so we don't have to worry about it :D

But seriously, I'd rather lose to Xavier than Memphis but that's more of a pride thing than anything. And it makes me feel a bit better about us losing Nichols lol. (silly I know)

At the end of the year, I'd think Memphis will have a higher RPI than Xavier?
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The thing with Memphis' RPI, they're gonna have an issue raising it in C-USA, not many available quality wins.

Right now they are at 124, last year entering conference play they were at 30, and it didn't move much from there in conference play. So if they play close to what they did last year in conference they might be in the 90s come march, possibly worse.
 
#165
#165
bleedingTNorange said:
Xavier lost to Wofford today and fell to 94, however UT has climbed to 57 today
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Gotta remember that as far as RPI is concerned it's the record that matters not the RPI, for the most part.

As for a chance at a quality win, well I wasn't sold on Xavier being a quality win at the end anyway so I'm not to disappointed there.

And last I looked WSU, Georgetown and Ok St all still just had 1 loss so that keeps boosting UT's SOS. Hopefully some of the worse teams we played will pick up some wins in conference play.
 
#166
#166
zansdad said:
Gotta remember that as far as RPI is concerned it's the record that matters not the RPI, for the most part.

As for a chance at a quality win, well I wasn't sold on Xavier being a quality win at the end anyway so I'm not to disappointed there.

And last I looked WSU, Georgetown and Ok St all still just had 1 loss so that keeps boosting UT's SOS. Hopefully some of the worse teams we played will pick up some wins in conference play.
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What do you make of us jumping 10 spots today? Is that caused mainly by others losing?

Seems like a W over Xavier and Memphis we're into the low 40s possibly?
 
#167
#167
Ole Miss lost to Indiana ST (RPI around 130) on a neutral floor.

So maybe Ole Miss isn't as good as their early season record appears. They have only played three teams with RP's better than 150 and lost to 2 of them (MTSU and Indiana St) and beat Rutgers (who is projected to have a losing record in the B. East) at home by 13.
 
#168
#168
bleedingTNorange said:
What do you make of us jumping 10 spots today? Is that caused mainly by others losing?

Seems like a W over Xavier and Memphis we're into the low 40s possibly?
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Looking at scores as of now Grorgetown, Oakland, UMass and Oklahoma St all won today. The only opponent I see that lost was Presbyterian and they were already at 0% so that didn't change anything. I think Virginia plays later tonight. If they win UT should bump up a little more.
 
#169
#169
As far as making it to the low 40's? I don't think 2 home wins will move the needle that far. However, if the teams UT has played keep winning they might make it. Adding 2 teams with winning records to SOS will help.


Right now I am just spit-balling it. Last year at the end of the season the math was easier since SOS didn't change wildly from game to game. Basically UT's AWP(adjusted winning percentage) was the only real variable. This early in the seaon everything is moving all over the place and I'm not that nerdy (or dedicated) to work out all the calculations for SOS.
 
#172
#172
zansdad said:
Ole Miss lost to Indiana ST (RPI around 130) on a neutral floor.

So maybe Ole Miss isn't as good as their early season record appears. They have only played three teams with RP's better than 150 and lost to 2 of them (MTSU and Indiana St) and beat Rutgers (who is projected to have a losing record in the B. East) at home by 13.
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I think Ole Miss is decent, but they've lost the only games against decent competitition. Most of their games have been at home and they lost their first road game of the season at MTSU. UT's game against them will be big out of the gate to get off on the right foot.

The SEC took it on the chin today. Bama lost to Mercer at home, A & M lost to Southern at home, Auburn lost to Winthrop at home and Ole Miss lost to Indiana St on a neutral court. Not to mention Candy lost last night to MTSU on a neutral court.

LSU also lost to Marquette and Fla lost to Kansas St. Those weren't bad losses, but it still shows the weakness of the conference.
 
#173
#173
OrangeBalls said:
I think Ole Miss is decent, but they've lost the only games against decent competitition. Most of their games have been at home and they lost their first road game of the season at MTSU. UT's game against them will be big out of the gate to get off on the right foot.

The SEC took it on the chin today. Bama lost to Mercer at home, A & M lost to Southern at home, Auburn lost to Winthrop at home and Ole Miss lost to Indiana St on a neutral court. Not to mention Candy lost last night to MTSU on a neutral court.

LSU also lost to Marquette and Fla lost to Kansas St. Those weren't bad losses, but it still shows the weakness of the conference.
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This is the part that worries me more and more. While UT doesn't really have any bad losses as of now (Virginia is creeping more and more that way), they don't really have a bevy of good wins either. Every time a SEC team drops an OOC game to a bad opponent it makes it that much harder for teams like UT to stay on the good side of the bubble. The Vol's resume is going to depend quite a bit on what they do in conference play. A perceived weak conference does not help.
 
#174
#174
zansdad said:
This is the part that worries me more and more. While UT doesn't really have any bad losses as of now (Virginia is creeping more and more that way), they don't really have a bevy of good wins either. Every time a SEC team drops an OOC game to a bad opponent it makes it that much harder for teams like UT to stay on the good side of the bubble. The Vol's resume is going to depend quite a bit on what they do in conference play. A perceived weak conference does not help.
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RPI up to 59 as of this morning. I think mid to low 40's possible with 2 wins over Xavier and UM.

The easiest way I look at it right now is that there is no way with adding 2 teams to the SEC that we don't get at least 4 in the tourny no matter how bad the SEC is. KY, Missouri, and FL will be there. That leaves TN, Ole Miss, and Bama, fighting for the 1 or 2 remaining spots. We play both teams home and away. These will be very big games that will separate us from the other 2 teams that have a shot.
 
#175
#175
johnnybravo said:
RPI up to 59 as of this morning. I think mid to low 40's possible with 2 wins over Xavier and UM.

The easiest way I look at it right now is that there is no way with adding 2 teams to the SEC that we don't get at least 4 in the tourny no matter how bad the SEC is. KY, Missouri, and FL will be there. That leaves TN, Ole Miss, and Bama, fighting for the 1 or 2 remaining spots. We play both teams home and away. These will be very big games that will separate us from the other 2 teams that have a shot.
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Ole Miss, Bama and KY are our first three games in SEC play, as it turns out.
 
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