UT's chance at March Madness

#51
#51
IMO.....Florida, Kentucky, and Mizzou are the only locks. Games against Bama, Ole Miss and Arkansas will be the biggest factors. If we beat at least one of those teams and take care of the SEC schedule, we should be 4 or 5 on that list of teams getting in.
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#52
#52
bleedingTNorange said:
IIRC losing on the road doesn't hurt you too much, losing at home is what really hurts you with the RPI.
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They don't hurt per se but at some point UT has to make up ground for the horrible SOS they are going to be looking at from conference play. Making up that ground can really only be done by winning on the road. UT needs to beat the bad teams on the road since they are the best opportunity at getting those 1.6's in the win column. Not to mention avoiding bad loses on the resume. Losing to someone like Auburn on the road is a bad loss AND a missed opportunity at bumping your AWP.
 
#53
#53
GatorsGators said:
It's predictive. I thought I made that pretty obvious. Resumes don't mean much in December.
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Resumes don't mean much in December that is true, but I still like to look at the ones that are " if the season ended today" types. It shows how each teams has played so far. Much like the UK example. Everyone is basically "projecting" them as in based on how they think they'll play in January thru March but the truth is, right now they aren't really a tourney team.
 
#54
#54
Shaun1985 said:
IMO.....Florida, Kentucky, and Mizzou are the only locks. Games against Bama, Ole Miss and Arkansas will be the biggest factors. If we beat at least one of those teams and take care of the SEC schedule, we should be 4 or 5 on that list of teams getting in.
Posted via VolNation Mobile
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Kentucky a lock? You're basing that off what you think they'll do in conference play I assume. Or an upset of Louisville? Because as of now their resume is not that great.
 
#55
#55
zansdad said:
They don't hurt per se but at some point UT has to make up ground for the horrible SOS they are going to be looking at from conference play. Making up that ground can really only be done by winning on the road. UT needs to beat the bad teams on the road since they are the best opportunity at getting those 1.6's in the win column. Not to mention avoiding bad loses on the resume. Losing to someone like Auburn on the road is a bad loss AND a missed opportunity at bumping your AWP.
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So basically...

Must wins:
Vs. Presbyterian
Vs. Western Carolina
Vs. mississippi state
Vs. Vandy
Vs. Georgia
@ USCjr
@Vandy
@Georgia
@Auburn

Close to must win...
Vs. Xavier
Vs. Memphis
@Bama
Vs. Ole miss
Vs. Bama
Vs. LSU
@ Texas A&M

Ok losses...
@ UK
@ Ole Miss
@ Arkansas
Vs. UK
Vs. Florida
Vs. Missouri
 
#56
#56
bleedingTNorange said:
So basically...

Must wins:
Vs. Presbyterian
Vs. Western Carolina
Vs. mississippi state
Vs. Vandy
Vs. Georgia
@ USCjr
@Vandy
@Georgia
@Auburn

Close to must win...
Vs. Xavier
Vs. Memphis
@Bama
Vs. Ole miss
Vs. Bama
Vs. LSU
@ Texas A&M

Ok losses...
@ UK
@ Ole Miss
@ Arkansas
Vs. UK
Vs. Florida
Vs. Missouri
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Just at first glance They need to beat UK, UF and Mizzou at home (or at least 2 of 3)1.6 in the loss column for each of those might be a bit much for their RPI to handle. Plus they need some quality wins, those 3 would be the most likely chances.

Losing at Bama probably would not be too bad.
 
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#57
#57
zansdad said:
Just at first glance They need to beat UK, UF and Mizzou at home (or at least 2 of 3)1.6 in the loss column for each of those might be a bit much for their RPI to handle. Plus they need some quality wins, those 3 would be the most likely chances.

Losing at Bama probably would not be too bad.
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Not much room for error. Looks like the worse we can do is probably 11 - 5 in the SEC with wins over Xavier and Memphis.
 
#58
#58
johnnybravo said:
Not much room for error. Looks like the worse we can do is probably 11 - 5 in the SEC with wins over Xavier and Memphis.
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If we end up with 10 or less losses then we are in the dance. While I thought we would beat one of the teams we lost to, those aren't bad losses. However, I believe Xavier is a must. Memphis is not a must, but we can't slip up to a bad team in conference. We need to at least split with Ole Miss and Bama and take UK, UF or Mizzou at home.
 
#59
#59
johnnybravo said:
Not much room for error. Looks like the worse we can do is probably 11 - 5 in the SEC with wins over Xavier and Memphis.
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13-5 actually. But yeah the point is the same. The weakness of the SEC in general leaves very little room for error. Winning out in the non-conference plus 13 conference wins makes 22 wins. That would put them safely in the tourney RPI wise.
 
#60
#60
VolGee4 said:
If we end up with 10 or less losses then we are in the dance. While I thought we would beat one of the teams we lost to, those aren't bad losses. However, I believe Xavier is a must. Memphis is not a must, but we can't slip up to a bad team in conference. We need to at least split with Ole Miss and Bama and take UK, UF or Mizzou at home.
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Losing at home always hurts your RPI. And Memphis doesn't look like they are going to be able to lift their RPI much either. Once Memphis hit conference play their RPI will not go up much. If it's sub 100 that would be a bad loss.

Not a must win, but darn close.
 
#62
#62
zansdad said:
13-5 actually. But yeah the point is the same. The weakness of the SEC in general leaves very little room for error. Winning out in the non-conference plus 13 conference wins makes 22 wins. That would put them safely in the tourney RPI wise.
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Not trying to argue, but I have a hard time seeing us missing the tourney with 20 wins. I know a lot depends on the numbers, I just think they'll work themselves out over the season.

I think 3-1 over our next 4 is fine (loss to UM or X) that puts us 8-4. Go 12-6 in the conference and that's 20-10(12-6) probably top 4 in SEC, IMO that gets us in. If you're saying we need 22-23 wins to get in I don't like our chances to be honest.
 
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#63
#63
zansdad said:
Losing at home always hurts your RPI. And Memphis doesn't look like they are going to be able to lift their RPI much either. Once Memphis hit conference play their RPI will not go up much. If it's sub 100 that would be a bad loss.

Not a must win, but darn close.
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So regarding Memphis, you're saying their RPI will stay in the 100s? So basically if they don't win C-USA tournament they're not getting in?
 
#64
#64
bleedingTNorange said:
Not trying to argue, but I have a hard time seeing us missing the tourney with 20 wins. I know a lot depends on the numbers, I just think they'll work themselves out over the season.

I think 3-1 over our next 4 is fine (loss to UM or X) that puts us 8-4. Go 12-6 in the conference and that's 20-10(12-6) probably top 4 in SEC, IMO that gets us in. If you're saying we need 22-23 wins to get in I don't like our chances to be honest.
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In normal years I would agree that 20 wins would be pretty safe. But the SEC is awful this year. Miss St had back to back seasons with 20 wins I believe and didn't make the tourney either time. Number of wins is not really requirement for the selection committee.
 
#65
#65
bleedingTNorange said:
So regarding Memphis, you're saying their RPI will stay in the 100s? So basically if they don't win C-USA tournament they're not getting in?
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I'm not 100% certain of the math, because honestly I haven't sat down at researched Memphis in particular. But if they are stuck in the mid 100's now, there aren't a lot of RPI boosters left on their schedule.
 
#66
#66
zansdad said:
In normal years I would agree that 20 wins would be pretty safe. But the SEC is awful this year. Miss St had back to back seasons with 20 wins I believe and didn't make the tourney either time. Number of wins is not really requirement for the selection committee.
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The PAC is down again, Arizona is good, but outside that it's much like last year. I see no way the SEC gets less than 5 teams in (somebody has to make up the 68 teams) an if we win 20+ and go 12-6 in conference id have to think we're finishing top 4 in conference and have a top 4 SEC resume.

I know how things look now, and you're the RPI man, but I just think these things have a way of working themselves out. I hope. Cause like I said, if we need 22-23 wins to get in I don't like our chances near as much.

JMO
 
#67
#67
bleedingTNorange said:
Not trying to argue, but I have a hard time seeing us missing the tourney with 20 wins. I know a lot depends on the numbers, I just think they'll work themselves out over the season.

I think 3-1 over our next 4 is fine (loss to UM or X) that puts us 8-4. Go 12-6 in the conference and that's 20-10(12-6) probably top 4 in SEC, IMO that gets us in. If you're saying we need 22-23 wins to get in I don't like our chances to be honest.
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The problem with 20 wins is where are the quality wins going to be if they only win 20. To sit on 20 it means they didn't have too many quality wins in conference, or they had a few quality wins but dropped some games they shouldn't.

And I said comfortably in at 22. They may still get in at 20 but it probably touch and go down the stretch like last season.
 
#68
#68
zansdad said:
The problem with 20 wins is where are the quality wins going to be if they only win 20. To sit on 20 it means they didn't have too many quality wins in conference, or they had a few quality wins but dropped some games they shouldn't.

And I said comfortably in at 22. They may still get in at 20 but it probably touch and go down the stretch like last season.
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So, maybe 20 wins during the regular season will require us to have to win a couple in the SEC tourny.
 
#69
#69
johnnybravo said:
So, maybe 20 wins during the regular season will require us to have to win a couple in the SEC tourny.
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That's possible too. Which is my point really. At just 20 wins, this team will be much like last years team, needing to win a couple SECt games to boost their RPI numbers. Last years team, no doubt had the quality wins, but had too many bad losses and an RPI in the 80's. That was at 18 wins. Just trying to project that into this year and 20 wins, and don't see just 2 more wins in a really bad (from RPI standpoint) conference jumping their RPI significantly.

Here is RPIforcast for UT:
http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Tennessee.html

This predicts 18-12 and an RPI of 78.2. Winning 2 more home games, even against good teams, will only move their RPI to somewhere in the 60's. That would make UT solidly on the bubble. At 22 regular season wins I think that moves UT to being in without a doubt (just my opinion)
 
#70
#70
zansdad said:
That's possible too. Which is my point really. At just 20 wins, this team will be much like last years team, needing to win a couple SECt games to boost their RPI numbers. Last years team, no doubt had the quality wins, but had too many bad losses and an RPI in the 80's. That was at 18 wins. Just trying to project that into this year and 20 wins, and don't see just 2 more wins in a really bad (from RPI standpoint) conference jumping their RPI significantly.

Here is RPIforcast for UT:
http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Tennessee.html

This predicts 18-12 and an RPI of 78.2. Winning 2 more home games, even against good teams, will only move their RPI to somewhere in the 60's. That would make UT solidly on the bubble. At 22 regular season wins I think that moves UT to being in without a doubt (just my opinion)
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I'm confused, they have our highest % at finishing 18-12, but have us favored in 14 remaining games which would be 19-11 and according to them a RPI around 60.

Edit: nvm just read this "The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game."

The most glaring game I see is the opener against Ole Miss, it's a home game, and they have it as a loss. I have to think a W there puts a big swing in the outlook according to them.
 
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#71
#71
zansdad said:
Kentucky a lock? You're basing that off what you think they'll do in conference play I assume. Or an upset of Louisville? Because as of now their resume is not that great.
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Yeah. They haven't "locked" anything up right now but they have too much talent to think they'd miss the tournament. They'll improve.
 
#72
#72
Shaun1985 said:
Yeah. They haven't "locked" anything up right now but they have too much talent to think they'd miss the tournament. They'll improve.
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I think they will be fine at home. We play the best in the SEC mostly at home. Most of the worst in the SEC are away. Hopefully, that will be a recipe for success - playing the cupcakes on the road. Because this team is a totally different team when not in TBA. Playing the weaker teams should help pick up a few road wins.
 
#73
#73
So it looks like these road games are already "must wins":

at Ole Miss
at Ark
at SC
at Vandy
at GA
at Aub

with acceptable losses at:
at Bama
at KY
at Texas A&M

Not so sure this team can win 6 SEC road games even against the teams listed.
 
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