Updated Conference/Playoff Discussion (long)

#51
#51
jvols1999 said:
I’ll be rooting for Mizzou because I think we beat Bama anyway but them taking a second L the week before we play them can only help us win that game.

Texas is toast IMO. Incredibly small chance they win out, which they have to do…
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Lord no. We want Bama at 1 loss. I don't understand this wanting to them to bleed coming into our game. We have the horses to play with anyone. We would not be caring about the Bama - Mizzou game if Gilbert makes that kick vs the Dawgs so why do we care now?
 
#52
#52
JMSqb11 said:
Lord no. We want Bama at 1 loss. I don't understand this wanting to them to bleed coming into our game. We have the horses to play with anyone. We would not be caring about the Bama - Mizzou game if Gilbert makes that kick vs the Dawgs so why do we care now?
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Respectfully disagree. Losing begets losing, winning begets winning. I want every edge possible regardless of the circumstance.
 
#53
#53
Rickyvol77 said:
UPDATED PREDICTION (10/05/25):


SEC
Georgia (4-1,2-1) - @ Auburn, Ole Miss, Florida, @ Mississippi St, Texas, Charlotte, @ Georgia Tech
Ole Miss (5-0, 3-0) - Washington St, @ Georgia, @ Oklahoma, South Carolina, The Citadel, Florida, @ Mississippi St
Tennessee (4-1, 1-1) - Arkansas, @ Alabama, @ Kentucky, Oklahoma, New Mexico St, @ Florida, Vanderbilt
Oklahoma (5-0, 1-1) - Texas, @ South Carolina, Ole Miss, @ Tennessee, @ Alabama, Mizzou, LSU
LSU (4-1, 1-1) - South Carolina, @ Vanderbilt, Texas A&M, @ Alabama, Arkansas, Western Kentucky, @ Oklahoma
Texas A&M (5-0, 2-0) - Florida, @ Arkansas, @ LSU, @ Mizzou, South Carolina, Samford, @ Texas
Alabama (4-1, 2-0) - @ Mizzou, Tennessee, @ South Carolina, LSU, Oklahoma, E. Illinois, @ Auburn
Mizzou (5-0, 1-0) - Alabama, @ Auburn, @ Vanderbilt, Texas A&M, Mississippi St, @ Oklahoma, @ Arkansas

- UGA, Ole Miss, and Tennessee all win
- With Texas losing, they are likely out unless they win out (not happening)
- This week, Texas beating Oklahoma would knock another team down for us, but really us beating undefeated Oklahoma would help us too, so a wash
- LSU losing to SC would be nice, but I doubt that happens at home
- Texas A&M losing to Florida would knock another team down and help us for the SEC title race
- We want Bama to beat Mizzou

Big Ten
Oregon (5-0, 2-0) - Indiana, @ Rutgers, Wisconsin, @ Iowa, Minnesota, USC, @ Washington
Ohio St (5-0, 2-0) - @ Illinois, @ Wisconsin, Penn St, @ Purdue, UCLA, Rutgers, @ Michigan
Indiana (5-0, 2-0) - @ Oregon, Michigan St, UCLA, @ Maryland, @ Penn St, Wisconsin, @ Purdue
USC (4-1, 2-1) - Michigan, @ Notre Dame, @ Nebraska, Northwestern, Iowa, @ Oregon, UCLA
Michigan (4-1, 2-0) - @ USC, Washington, @ Michigan St, Purdue, @ Northwestern, @ Maryland, Ohio St
Illinois (5-1, 2-1) - Ohio St, @ Washington, Rutgers, Maryland, @ Wisconsin, Northwestern

- Oregon and Ohio St are still locks
- Penn St is eliminated for all intents and purposes
- Indiana is a lock at 10-2, but if they lose a 3rd game they are done
- USC has a good shot if they win 2 of 3 vs ND, Michigan, Oregon
- Michigan has an outside shot at 10-2
- Illinois has an outside shot even though they are mediocre due to schedule
- Washington and Nebraska are still long shots


ACC
Miami (5-0, 1-0) - Louisville, Stanford, @ SMU, Syracuse, NC State, @ Virginia Tech, @ Pittsburgh
Georgia Tech (5-0, 2-0) - Virginia Tech, @ Duke, Syracuse, @ NC State, @ Boston College, Pittsburgh, Georgia
Virginia (5-1, 3-0) - Washington St, @ UNC, @ California, Wake Forest, @ Duke, Virginia Tech

- Miami is probably a lock in the ACC title game, and the other teams losing helps their at-large bid if they go 11-2
- Ga Tech has the schedule to make the ACC title game, could be a possible at-large at 10-2
- UVA and Duke still have a legitimate shot at the ACC title game as well

Big XII
Arizona St (4-1, 2-0) - @ Utah, Texas Tech, Houston, @ Iowa St, WVU, @ Colorado, Arizona
Texas Tech (5-0, 2-0) -Kansas, @ Arizona St, Oklahoma St, @ Kansas St, BYU, UCF, @ WVU
Iowa State (5-1, 2-1) - @ Colorado, BYU, Arizona St, @ TCU, Kansas, @ Oklahoma St
BYU (5-0, 2-0) - @ Arizona, Utah, @ Iowa St, @ Texas Tech, TCU, @ Cincinnati, UCF
Utah (4-1, 1-1) - Arizona St, @ BYU, Colorado, Cincinnati, @ Baylor, Kansas St, @ Kansas

- Tx Tech, Iowa St, Arizona St, Utah, BYU etc. are all about the same so no real advantage at this point, whoever wins road games gets to the title game

Everyone Else (The Undeserving)
Notre Dame (3-2) - NC State, USC, @ Boston College, Navy, @ Pittsburgh, Syracuse, @ Stanford

UNLV (5-0, 1-0) - Air Force, @ Boise St, New Mexico, @ Colorado St, Utah St, Hawaii, @ Nevada

Navy (5-0, 3-0) - @ Temple, FAU, @ North Texas, @ Notre Dame, USF, @ Memphis, Army
Tulane (4-1, 1-0) - East Carolina, Army, @ UTSA, @ Memphis, FAU, at Temple, Charlotte
North Texas (5-0, 1-0) - USF, UTSA, @ Charlotte, Navy, @ UAB, @ Rice, Temple
Memphis (6-0, 2-0) - Tulsa, @ UAB, USF, @ Rice, Tulane, @ East Carolina, Navy

- Notre Dame MIGHT get in at 10-2, but it's not a given; but any more losses and they are done; I don't see them winning out even with their weak schedule
- UNLV has a shot if they go undefeated, but it still might not be enough schedule wise to grab the G5 spot over the AAC champ
- The AAC Champ will go pretty much as long as they are 11-2 are better (any of the four teams could win it, they are all basically the same garbage at this point)



PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS

First Round
(9) USC vs. (8) Alabama
(12) Tulane vs. (5) Tennessee
(11) Indiana vs. (6) Oklahoma
(10) Ole Miss vs. (7) Texas Tech

2nd Round
USC vs. (1) Oregon (Rose Bowl)
Tennessee vs. (4) Ohio State (Cotton Bowl)
Oklahoma vs. (3) Miami (Orange Bowl)
Ole Miss vs. (2) Georgia (Sugar Bowl)

Final 4
Tennessee vs. Oregon (Fiesta Bowl)
Miami vs. Georgia (Peach Bowl)

NC - Tennessee vs. Miami (Miami)
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Going off of schedules and seeing how things are shaking out nearly half way through the season. I have

Winner of UGA vs Ole Miss vs ATM in Atlanta (sounds insane)
Oregon and Ohio St in Indianapolis
Miami vs UVA (cake schedule) in Charlotte (if uva got in the CFP at 11-2 they would be the worst team in the history of the CFP).
Texas Tech vs …Big 12 meat grinder 2nd place team
Notre Dame, tricky games w/ USC and @ Pitt are all that’s left.

I think B1G team gets #1 seed
Miami #2
SEC champ #3
B1G runner up #4
SEC runner up #5
Texas Tech #6

Can’t quite fill in 7-12 yet. Notre Dame will sneak in as a 9-11 IMO. UNLV/Memphis/Tulane could wind up as the G5 team. 4 P4 spots remain between

Tennessee
Mizzou
Bama
OU
LSU
IU
GT
Some Big 12 teams, but who knows .

It’s gonna be a wild ride until December. Hopefully we can take care of business.
 
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#54
#54
RDU VOL#14 said:
Going off of schedules and seeing how things are shaking out nearly half way through the season. I have

Winner of UGA vs Ole Miss vs ATM in Atlanta (sounds insane)
Oregon and Ohio St in Indianapolis
Miami vs UVA (cake schedule) in Charlotte (if uva got in the CFP at 11-2 they would be the worst team in the history of the CFP).
Texas Tech vs …Big 12 meat grinder 2nd place team
Notre Dame, tricky games w/ USC and @ Pitt are all that’s left.

I think B1G team gets #1 seed
Miami #2
SEC champ #3
B1G runner up #4
SEC runner up #5
Texas Tech #6

Can’t quite fill in 7-12 yet. Notre Dame will sneak in as a 9-11 IMO. UNLV/Memphis/Tulane could wind up as the G5 team. 4 P4 spots remain between

Tennessee
Mizzou
Bama
OU
LSU
IU
GT
Some Big 12 teams, but who knows .

It’s gonna be a wild ride until December. Hopefully we can take care of business.
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I don’t think ND beats USC but they definitely could. Ga tech I believe has an easier schedule than UVA by a hair
 
#55
#55
jvols1999 said:
I’ll be rooting for Mizzou because I think we beat Bama anyway but them taking a second L the week before we play them can only help us win that game.

Texas is toast IMO. Incredibly small chance they win out, which they have to do…
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You’re on drugs. Bama isn’t losing in Tuscaloosa.
 
#59
#59
VolCalls said:
That’s not what you said. You said we’re going to beat Bama either way, like it’s a foregone conclusion. That’s different from saying they “can” win.
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I said, “I’ll be rooting for Mizzou because I think we beat Bama anyway.” The context was whether the outcome of their game this weekend mattered. I do think we’re going to beat them regardless of what happens in CoMo, but that doesn’t mean it’s a foregone conclusion. It would be silly if anyone to make definitive statements about the future.
 
#60
#60
jvols1999 said:
I said, “I’ll be rooting for Mizzou because I think we beat Bama anyway.” The context was whether the outcome of their game this weekend mattered. I do think we’re going to beat them regardless of what happens in CoMo, but that doesn’t mean it’s a foregone conclusion. It would be silly if anyone to make definitive statements about the future.
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I wish I had your confidence but I think we lose in Tuscaloosa no matter what happens this weekend.
 
#62
#62
JMSqb11 said:
Lord no. We want Bama at 1 loss. I don't understand this wanting to them to bleed coming into our game. We have the horses to play with anyone. We would not be caring about the Bama - Mizzou game if Gilbert makes that kick vs the Dawgs so why do we care now?
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Because he didn’t make it and we have a loss. We want all the contenders to lose any time they can. In particular, I want Bama to lose every game they play unless a Bama win somehow directly helps Tennessee.
 
#63
#63
LegionnaireOfTheMiserable said:
Because he didn’t make it and we have a loss. We want all the contenders to lose any time they can. In particular, I want Bama to lose every game they play unless a Bama win somehow directly helps Tennessee.
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We want the other contenders to lose when they play us, but to win when they don't. This isn't that hard unless you think we are going to be a bubble team all season. If we win out, we would naturally take a higher position in the playoff rankings than the team currently "polled" above us. That is Alabama and Oklahoma. If Bama goes 10-2, that means OU goes 10-2 if we go 11-1. That alone would solidify us in the top 4-6 range because that also means they have would give Ole Miss 2 losses (another team polled above us). I do not think those 3 teams being 10-2 would result in us being kept in the 9-12 range in the standings when the CFP gets together.


I hope Bama goes 10-2. I hope Georgia goes 11-1. I hope OU goes 10-2. 11-1UGA/10-2 OU means Ole Miss gets 2 losses. 10-2 Bama / 10-2 OU / 10-2 Vandy means Mizzou has 3 losses.

In all of those scenarios, we likely finish 3rd in the SEC with A&M, UGA, Bama, Tennessee having a zero loss SEC team (assuming A&M runs table) and three 1 loss teams (UGA, Bama, Tennessee)...

I am okay with all of these situations. I want Bama to be a one loss team when we roll into Tuscaloosa because I want them to be ranked as high as possible where a win would slingshot us up in the rankings hugely.
 
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#64
#64
JMSqb11 said:
We want the other contenders to lose when they play us, but to win when they don't. This isn't that hard unless you think we are going to be a bubble team all season. I hope Bama goes 10-2. I hope Georgia goes 11-1. I hope OU goes 10-2. 11-1UGA/10-2 OU means Ole Miss gets 2 losses. 10-2 Bama / 10-2 OU / 10-2 Vandy means Mizzou has 3 losses.

In all of those scenarios, we likely finish 3rd in the SEC with A&M, UGA, Bama, Tennessee having a zero loss SEC team (assuming A&M runs table) and three 1 loss teams (UGA, Bama, Tennessee)...

I am okay with all of these situations. I want Bama to be a one loss team when we roll into Tuscaloosa because I want them to be ranked as high as possible where a win would slingshot us up in the rankings hugely.
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You have to give yourself some margin for error.
 
#65
#65
LegionnaireOfTheMiserable said:
You have to give yourself some margin for error.
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Lol. People need to look at the schedule grid some more. A 10-2 Bama and 10-2 OU would mean a 10-2 Ole Miss along with Mizzou having 2 losses at minimum. Hell for some bonus, a 10-2 Vandy means Mizzou has 3 losses.

So in the current grid of teams, we would be listed like this below. There is no world where we wouldn't be in the top 8 at minimum.

- 12-0 A&M
- 11-1 / 7-1 Georgia (win over Ole Miss)
- 11-1 / 7-1 Tennessee (wins over Alabama / Oklahoma)
- 10-2 / 7-1 Alabama (win over Georgia / Oklahoma)
- 10-2 / 6-2 Oklahoma (win over Ole Miss)
- 10-2 / 6-2 Ole Miss
- 10-2 / 6-2 Vanderbilt
- 8-4 / 4-4 Missouri
- 7-5 / 3-5 LSU
 
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#66
#66
JMSqb11 said:
Lol. People need to look at the schedule grid some more. A 10-2 Bama and 10-2 OU would mean a 10-2 Ole Miss along with Mizzou having 2 losses at minimum. Hell for some bonus, a 10-2 Vandy means Mizzou has 3 losses.

So in the current grid of teams, we would be listed like this below. There is no world where we wouldn't be in the top 8 at minimum.

- 12-0 A&M
- 11-1 / 7-1 Georgia (win over Ole Miss)
- 10-2 / 7-1 Tennessee (wins over Alabama / Oklahoma)
- 10-2 / 7-1 Alabama (win over Georgia / Oklahoma)
- 10-2 / 6-2 Oklahoma (win over Ole Miss)
- 10-2 / 6-2 Ole Miss
- 10-2 / 6-2 Vanderbilt
- 8-4 / 4-4 Missouri
- 7-5 / 3-5 LSU
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The odds are we are losing another game. The odds are also highly against 7 10-2 or better teams.
 
#67
#67
LegionnaireOfTheMiserable said:
The odds are we are losing another game. The odds are also highly against 7 10-2 or better teams.
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We are going to be favored in every other game this season except Bama. Even then, I would imagine the line would be something like 3-4 points.

I know I know I know, people are terrified of playing OU for some weird reason. I don't get it. We are playing them in Neyland where we haven't lost since 2021 to a school not named Georgia.

Even if we were to lose that game and finish 10-2, we would simply trade places with Bama in my grid up top.

Bama goes to 11-2 / 8-0 while we drop to 10-2 / 6-2 with wins over 10-2 Oklahoma and 10-2 Vandy. We are still solid.
 
#68
#68
JMSqb11 said:
We are going to be favored in every other game this season except Bama. Even then, I would imagine the line would be something like 3-4 points.

I know I know I know, people are terrified of playing OU for some weird reason. I don't get it. We are playing them in Neyland where we haven't lost since 2021 to a school not named Georgia.

Even if we were to lose that game and finish 10-2, we would simply trade places with Bama in my grid up top.

Bama goes to 11-2 / 8-0 while we drop to 10-2 / 6-2 with wins over 10-2 Oklahoma and 10-2 Vandy. We are still solid.
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We nearly lost to a Mississippi State team that hasn’t won a conference game in years. I don’t think expecting us to trip up is some unfounded idea. The defense isn’t good enough to get us through the rest of the year unscathed.
 
#69
#69
JMSqb11 said:
Lol. People need to look at the schedule grid some more. A 10-2 Bama and 10-2 OU would mean a 10-2 Ole Miss along with Mizzou having 2 losses at minimum. Hell for some bonus, a 10-2 Vandy means Mizzou has 3 losses.

So in the current grid of teams, we would be listed like this below. There is no world where we wouldn't be in the top 8 at minimum.

- 12-0 A&M
- 11-1 / 7-1 Georgia (win over Ole Miss)
- 10-2 / 7-1 Tennessee (wins over Alabama / Oklahoma)
- 10-2 / 7-1 Alabama (win over Georgia / Oklahoma)
- 10-2 / 6-2 Oklahoma (win over Ole Miss)
- 10-2 / 6-2 Ole Miss
- 10-2 / 6-2 Vanderbilt
- 8-4 / 4-4 Missouri
- 7-5 / 3-5 LSU
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We're winning at Alabama and Florida and home against Oklahoma, but losing to New Mexico State? I haven't read the whole thread, but I must have missed something.
 
#70
#70
LegionnaireOfTheMiserable said:
We nearly lost to a Mississippi State team that hasn’t won a conference game in years. I don’t think expecting us to trip up is some unfounded idea. The defense isn’t good enough to get us through the rest of the year unscathed.
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Which is it. Road games are hard and we were the better team or we got lucky?

For goodness sake, grow a pair. We are 5 years in with Heupel yet people are still acting like we are in the Butch/Pruitt days where we are hanging on by skin of our teeth.
 
#71
#71
oUTlaw said:
We're winning at Alabama and Florida and home against Oklahoma, but losing to New Mexico State? I haven't read the whole thread, but I must have missed something.
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Typo my apologies. But wouldn't that be funny? Because in theory with 3 one loss teams who all beat each other and vying for second spot to Atlanta, we'd still be in comfy position for Playoff.

Tie Breakers:

1- Head to Head (UGA Bama Tennessee all 1-1)
2- Record vs Common opponents (I think this would settle it but not sure who of the 3)
 
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#72
#72
Rickyvol77 said:
I don’t think ND beats USC but they definitely could. Ga tech I believe has an easier schedule than UVA by a hair
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I disagree about the schedule.
UVA has Wazzu, @ UNC (win) @ Cal (tough across country flight but they suck) @ Duke (toss up) Wake and Virginia Tech.

GT @ Duke, Cuse (they’re awful now) @ NC State
@ BC, Pitt and UGA. Those are 4 tough games out of 6 .

I’d say Duke has a chance also, but getting GT, @ Clemson and UVA is the toughest draw out of that group. Finishing w/ UNC and Wake helps though.
 
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#73
#73
JMSqb11 said:
Which is it. Road games are hard and we were the better team or we got lucky?

For goodness sake, grow a pair. We are 5 years in with Heupel yet people are still acting like we are in the Butch/Pruitt days where we are hanging on by skin of our teeth.
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I don’t think saying “we probably lose another game” on October 10 with 2 top 10 opponents left means someone is acting like it’s the 2010s. We are 5 years in with Heupel, and losing another game would be right in line with what he has done in the past.
 
#74
#74
11-1 would guarantee us a spot for sure, but theres a scenario where there could be several 1 and 2 loss teams from the SEC competing for spots and we do not want to be one of those 2 loss teams going up against UGA or Bama with the same record.
 
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